老挝金融发展与经济增长的关系研究

发布时间：2018-04-29 01:42

本文选题：老挝 + 金融发展　；参考：《昆明理工大学》2013年博士论文

【摘要】：金融与经济增长的关系始终是理论研究和实证分析的热点问题。金融作为影响经济增长的重要因素之一,其重要性早已为广大学者所公认。特别是近年来西方学者对金融与经济增长关系的研究不再局限于发达国家,更广泛地推广到了发展中国家。经过不断的实践检验,该理论显现出对发展中国家的经济、金融建设有非常重要的指导作用。因此,将西方日益成熟、完善的理论和老挝的实际情况相结合,考察老挝金融发展与经济增长的关系,是老挝经济建设的迫切需要,同时也为老挝金融体系的发展、金融结构的调整提供理论依据。基于此,选择金融发展对经济增长的影响这一课题,并从金融学的视角系统探讨和研究这一问题,具有重要的理论价值和现实意义。本文首先对金融发展和经济增长的定义进行了界定,并且概括性地阐述了金融发展与经济增长关系的国内外研究,明晰了其中的观点,指出了不足;而且从提供支付系统、影响储蓄率、提高资本配置效率、导致更高比例的储蓄转化为投资等四个方面分析了金融发展如何作用于经济增长,同时进行了经济增长如何作用于金融发展的分析,且对金融发展与经济增长如何相互作用进行了说明。其次,基于金融发展对经济增长作用的传导路径和理论分析框架,关于金融发展与经济增长关系之间强调有许多研究理论文献,本章将首先介绍了古典经济增长理论,接着是现代经济增长理论、金融发展理论的主要理论成果,在金融发展理论中介绍了金融结构论、金融抑制论、金融功能的主要理论成果。然而对金融发展与经济增长的作用机制分析,探讨了影响经济增长的金融要素,最后对金融发展与经济增长关系的宏观经济理论进行了梳理与总结,从而为本文进一步的深入研究提供理论基础。其三,从金融机构信贷发展概况、股票市场发展概况和保险市场发展概况等三个角度阐述了老挝金融发展的演变过程,同样也介绍了老挝经济增长的演变过程,并对金融发展与经济增长的关系作出基本判断,从而得到了老挝金融发展与经济增长的关系的基本结论。其四,在研究的指标设计及实证方法。首先对影响经济增长的金融要素进行归类分析,其次在此基础上构建了反映各要素的指标体系；再次对金融发展和经济增长指标的数据进行定义；最后就金融发展对经济增长影响程度的实证方法作一选择,金融发展与经济增长关系的假设及建立模型,从而为后面两章.的实证研究打下基础。其五,在实证研究部分本文研究全国的金融发展对经济增长的作用时,选取金融发展规模、金融发展结构、金融中介效率、外贸和实际利率,将相关变量进行单位根检验、协整分析、构建向量误差修正模型,运用多元线性回归来研究各金融变量对经济增长的影响力度和作用方向。其六,在研究区域的金融发展对经济增长的作用时,选取金融发展规模、金融发展结构、金融中介效率、就业人数增长率和投资总额的比例,将相关变量在面板数据模型上进行单位根检验、协整分析和格兰杰因果关系检验。从本文考察样本所反映的长期稳定的关系来看,老挝金融发展规模、金融发展结构、金融发展中介效率与经济增长之间存在着长期稳定的关系我们可以得出个层面全国和地区的如下结论： (1)从老挝全国金融发展与经济增长历史和现状来看,自从改革开放以后,伴随着经济的快速发展,老挝金融业整体发展水平也得到改善和提高,特别是金融规模和金融结构的发展与经济的增长保持着良好的同步性向前扩大和提高发展。而这种现象的存在也是我们进行金融发展与经济增长相互影响力研究的中前提之一。 (2)从老挝金融规模的长期来看,自改革开放以来,老挝金融资产总量不断地扩大并且它的扩张对经济增长起到应有的促进作用。实际上各种金融资产在国民经济中所占的比例越大说明他们在国民经济中的地位越来越重要,但并不意味着一国金融发展的质量达到了相应的水平。如果金融资产扩张建立在高质量、高效率的基础上,那么这种扩张当然会对经济增长起到促进作用,否则,这种扩张隐含着很大的危险。 (3)从老挝全国金融结构变化的角度来看,最近几年老挝中央银行占银行业总贷款的比例呈现不断下降的趋势,体现出了金融结构的优化,银行业之间开始更多的有序竞争,无疑将有利于发挥金融对经济的正面作用。但是我们同样发现2005年之后,一定程度上体现金融中介效率的银行对非国有银行对非国有企业贷款占银行业总贷款的比例份额却出现下降特征,这些指的标变化很好地说明了银行贷款过程中的“所有制歧视”现象依然广泛存在,这无疑不利于老挝中小企业的发展和扩大。 (4)从老挝金融中介效率来看,长期以来老挝金融中介效率不断地得到提高和改善,老挝的金融体系仍是以银行为主导的金融体系,银行在整个金融体系中扮演着最为重要的角色,也是目前老挝最重要的金融中介机构。金融中介效率的提高,表现为将更多的储蓄存款转化为投入到实体经济中去,但由于存在存款创造机制,金融中介效率没有促进经济增长是因为在国有商业银行占主导的金融市场中,效率问题并没有得到足够的重视和改善,现有的市场金融市场缺乏多层次,多样化的产品与服务,难以满足需求,也无法促进经济增长。进一步分析可发现,老挝金融系统存贷比率在1987-2008年期间一直下降,然后逐渐有所上升。这主要源于金融机构的信贷投放能力受到制约。一方面,国有商业银行和股份制商业银行按照效益大最化的原则同时兼顾到安全性,实行一级法人管理体制,存有大量资金。另一方面,老挝很多信用担保机构因发展规模小和担保能力较弱,在缓解中小企业融资方面的作用很有限。因此导致经济增长对金融效率提高的作用并不明显。 (5)从老挝各地区统计描述和面板数据实证分析来看,老挝四个地区金融发展与经济增长水平都存在差异很大,经济与金融比较发达都集中在老挝中部和首都万象,这是老挝各地区间存在较大的差异和不平衡现象问题。通过对金融结构、金融规模和金融中介效率的考察,本文发现四个大地区在金融存款、金融贷款等方面表现比较为一致的变化趋势。在绝对规模上,万象首都和中部在上述方面都占绝对优势,但南部、北部地区在近几年的增长速度上却有明显的追赶趋势,甚至某一些指标的速度上还跟首都万象和中部差不多。在金融资产使用效率方面,中部地区在四个地区中最高的,万象首都地区次之,南部和北部最低,由此可见,各个地区金融资产使用效率情况与金融结构规模关联性很大,且与地区的经济发展情况相关性也很强。最后本文对整个研究进行了总结并针对上述分析结果提出相应的具有可行性的政策性建议,然后对本文研究不足之处提出了展望。
[Abstract]:The relationship between financial and economic growth has always been a hot issue in theoretical and empirical analysis. As one of the important factors affecting economic growth, the importance of finance has long been recognized by many scholars. Especially in recent years, the research on the relationship between financial and economic growth by western scholars is no longer limited to the developed countries, and has been widely spread to the developed countries. The developing countries have been proved to have a very important guiding role in the economic and financial construction of the developing countries. Therefore, it is an urgent need for the economic development of Laos to combine the mature theory of the West and the actual situation of Laos to examine the relationship between the Laos financial development and the economic growth. At the same time, it also provides a theoretical basis for the development of the Laos financial system and the adjustment of the financial structure. Based on this, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to choose the subject of the impact of financial development on economic growth and to study and study the problem systematically from the perspective of finance.
This paper first defines the definition of financial development and economic growth, and gives a general exposition of the domestic and foreign research on the relationship between financial development and economic growth, clarifies the views and points out the shortcomings; and it also leads to a higher proportion of savings into investment from the provision of payment system, the impact of the savings rate and the efficiency of capital allocation. In the four aspects, this paper analyzes how financial development plays a role in economic growth. At the same time, it makes an analysis of how economic growth plays a role in financial development and explains how financial development and economic growth interact with each other.
Secondly, based on the transmission path and theoretical analysis framework of the role of financial development on economic growth, there are many theoretical literature on the relationship between financial development and economic growth. This chapter will first introduce the theory of classical economic growth, then the theory of modern economic growth, the main theoretical results of the theory of financial development, and the financial development. In the theory of exhibition, the main theoretical results of financial structure, financial restraint and financial function are introduced. However, the mechanism of financial development and economic growth is analyzed, and the financial factors affecting economic growth are discussed. Finally, the macro economic theory of the relationship between financial development and economic growth is reviewed and summarized. The in-depth study of the step provides a theoretical basis.
Thirdly, it expounds the evolution process of Laos financial development from three angles, such as the general situation of financial institutions' credit development, the general situation of the stock market development and the general situation of the insurance market development. It also introduces the evolution process of the Laos economic growth, and makes a basic judgement on the relationship between the financial development and the economic growth, thus obtaining the Laos financial development and the development of the Laos. The basic conclusion of the relationship of economic growth.
Fourth, in the study of the index design and empirical methods. First, the financial factors affecting economic growth are classified and analyzed. Secondly, the index system which reflects the factors is built on the basis of this, and the data of financial development and economic growth indicators are defined again; finally, the empirical formula for the impact of gold development on economic growth is made. The law makes a choice, a hypothesis and a model for the relationship between financial development and economic growth, so as to lay the foundation for empirical research in the following two chapters.
Fifth, in the empirical research part, this paper studies the effect of financial development on economic growth in the country, selects the scale of financial development, the structure of financial development, the efficiency of financial intermediation, foreign trade and the actual interest rate, and carries out the unit root test, co integration analysis, the error correction model of vector, and the use of multiple linear return to study finance. The impact of variables on economic growth and the direction of action.
Six, in the study of the role of financial development for economic growth in the region, the scale of financial development, financial development structure, financial intermediary efficiency, employment growth rate and the proportion of total investment are selected, and the related variables are tested on the panel data model by unit root test, co integration analysis and Grainger causality test.
From the long-term stable relationship reflected by the samples, the scale of Laos financial development, the structure of financial development, the long-term stable relationship between the intermediary efficiency of financial development and the economic growth, we can draw the following conclusions at the level of the whole country and the region.
(1) from the history and current situation of the national financial development and economic growth in Laos, since the reform and opening up, with the rapid development of the economy, the overall level of the development of the Laos financial industry has also been improved and improved, especially the development of the financial scale and financial structure and the growth of the economy. The existence of this phenomenon is also one of the prerequisites for our research on the mutual influence between financial development and economic growth.
(2) from the long term of Laos financial scale, since the reform and opening up, the total amount of financial assets in Laos has been expanding and its expansion has played an important role in promoting economic growth. In fact, the larger the proportion of financial assets in the national economy, the more important they are in the national economy, but it does not mean that the financial assets of Laos are more and more important. The quality of a country's financial development has reached a corresponding level. If the expansion of financial assets is based on high quality and high efficiency, this expansion will certainly contribute to economic growth. Otherwise, this expansion implies a great risk.
(3) from the point of view of the change of the Laos national financial structure, the proportion of the total loan of the Central Bank of Laos in recent years has been declining, reflecting the optimization of the financial structure and the beginning of more orderly competition among the banks, which will undoubtedly benefit the positive role of the finance to the economy. But we also find that 200 5 years later, the bank to a certain extent reflects the decline of non-state banks' proportion of non-state banks to non-state-owned enterprises in the proportion of the total loans to the bank industry, which shows that the "ownership discrimination" phenomenon still exists widely in the process of bank lending, which is no doubt beneficial to the small and medium Laos. The development and expansion of the enterprise.
(4) from the efficiency of Laos financial intermediation, the efficiency of Laos financial intermediaries has been improved and improved for a long time. The financial system of Laos is still a banking dominated financial system, and the bank plays the most important role in the whole financial system. It is also the most important financial intermediary in Laos. High, the performance is to convert more savings deposits into the real economy, but because of the existence of deposit creation mechanism, the efficiency of financial intermediation does not promote economic growth because in the financial market dominated by state-owned commercial banks, the problem of efficiency has not been sufficiently re viewed and improved, and the existing market financial market is lack of multiple layers. A variety of products and services are difficult to meet demand and can not promote economic growth. Further analysis can be found that the deposit and loan ratio of the Laos financial system has declined during the 1987-2008 years, and then gradually rises. This is mainly due to the constraints of the credit capacity of financial institutions. On the one hand, state-owned commercial banks and joint-stock merchants. On the other hand, many credit guarantee institutions in Laos have a limited role in alleviating small and medium sized enterprises' financing on the other hand, because of the small development scale and weak security ability. Therefore, the economic growth will increase the financial efficiency. The effect is not obvious.
(5) from the statistical and panel data analysis in Laos, the financial development and economic growth level of the four regions of Laos are very different. The economic and financial development is concentrated in the middle of Laos and the Vientiane in the capital. This is a big difference and imbalance between the Laos regions. In the study of financial scale and efficiency of financial intermediaries, this paper finds that the four large areas have a consistent trend of change in Financial deposits and financial loans. On the absolute scale, the capital and the central part of the world are all dominant in the above aspects, but in the south, the northern region has a clear chase trend in the growth rate in recent years. In terms of the efficiency of financial assets, the central region is the highest in the four regions, the Vientiane capital area is the second, the South and the north is the lowest. Thus, it can be seen that the use efficiency of financial assets in each region is very closely related to the scale of the financial structure, and with the region. The correlation of economic development is also very strong.
Finally, this paper makes a summary of the whole research and puts forward some feasible policy suggestions according to the results of the above analysis, and then puts forward the prospect of the shortcomings of this paper.

【学位授予单位】：昆明理工大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F833.34;F133.4

【参考文献】