货币危机的政治经济学解释:文献评述

发布时间：2018-05-02 07:01

本文选题：货币危机 + 政治经济学　；参考：《世界经济与政治》2011年01期

【摘要】：作者从文献的角度对货币危机的政治经济学解释做了一次比较全面的梳理,从中可以看出国际金融政治经济学的研究特点和思维方式。在理论构建上,政治经济学的学者们完全沿用了经济学模型中的不完全信息和动态博弈论,引入了预期的形成以及市场交易者和政府之间的战略互动,从而成功地把各种政治和经济变量纳入到一个模型之内。他们的贡献是,把政治变量引入到市场交易者和政府的预期形成中,强调了政治变量以及作为一种信息的政治变量在市场交易者和政府预期中的作用或者地位,并强调了政治变量在市场交易者和政府之间战略互动或动态博弈过程中的作用,从而更好地解释了货币危机的原因,提高了预测货币危机的准确性。在实证研究上,政治经济学通过预期效用函数、战略概率模型等方式,较为成功地实现了对政治因素这个分类变量的模型化,较好地实现了对政治因素的量化分析。
[Abstract]:From the perspective of literature, the author makes a comprehensive analysis of the political economy explanation of currency crisis, from which we can see the research characteristics and thinking mode of international financial political economy. In the theoretical construction, the scholars of political economy have completely followed the incomplete information and dynamic game theory in the economic model, and introduced the formation of expectation and the strategic interaction between market traders and government. Thus, various political and economic variables are successfully incorporated into a model. Their contribution is to introduce political variables into the formation of market traders and government expectations, emphasizing the role or position of political variables and political variables as an information in the expectations of market traders and governments. It also emphasizes the role of political variables in the process of strategic interaction or dynamic game between market traders and governments, thus better explaining the causes of currency crises and improving the accuracy of predicting currency crises. In the empirical research, the political economy has successfully realized the model of the classified variable of the political factor through the expected utility function, the strategic probability model and so on, and has realized the quantification analysis of the political factor.
【作者单位】：北京大学国际关系学院;
【分类号】：F820

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