双因素预防性储蓄动机研究：理论模型与实证分析

发布时间：2018-05-02 08:55

本文选题：预防性储蓄动机 + 发展型消费　；参考：《浙江工商大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：在进入21世纪的十余年里,以投资为主要动力的中国经济高速增长,就这一点而言,中国的增长奇迹令世界瞩目。然而,伴随着经济高增长的却是居民消费结构升级趋缓和储蓄率的大幅攀升。在2002-2011这十年里,我国城镇居民消费结构的年均变动度只有0.39,远低于1992-2001年的1.18,储蓄率则从37.9%上升到52.6%,这种现象被称作“中国储蓄之谜”。一方面,投资与消费的结构性失衡为未来的经济持续增长埋下了隐患；另一方面,居民消费结构升级趋缓亦不利于民生事业的改善。居民消费支出可以大致分为两类,一是以维持基本生活所必需的消费支出,以“衣、食、住”支出为主体的生存型消费。另一类是满足精神需要,以及提高人力资本的知识技能存量,以确保消费者未来发展需要的发展型消费。发展型消费占总消费的比重增加意味着消费结构的优化升级和居民生活水平的提高,该项指标是国家制定民生事业建设相关政策的重要依据,特别是在当今全球金融危机阴霾未散,国内需求不足的背景下,深入研究其变化特点,把握其内在规律,对于推进产业结构升级和扩大内需政策的制定,都是大有裨益的。处于经济体制改革进程中的中国,各项制度变革都使国内居民面临着种种不确定性,在这个特殊的大背景下,无论是从理论发展还是经济实践,都有必要深入研究居民发展型消费逡巡不前的原因。因此,研究针对发展型消费的预防性储蓄,能为探索上述原因提供一个解读视角。本文借鉴日臻成熟的西方预防性储蓄理论,在对该领域最近的研究成果进行梳理的基础上,将不确定性的来源由传统模型中等的一维拓展至多维,构建了一个新的理论模型,并以此为分析框架,对我国城镇居民针对发展性消费的预防性储蓄行为进行了定量研究,同时结合挤占效应,试图对居民消费结构升级趋缓的原因进行探索。本文的研究内容由以下五部分构成：第一部分为前言,简要地介绍了本文的选题背景、研究意义,对研究对象和主要内容进行概述,勾勒出文章的总体框架。第二部分为文献综述,沿两条线索展开。第一条线索结合不同支出类型需求刚性,介绍有关生存型消费和发展型消费挤占效应的研究成果。第二条线索先对预防性储蓄理论的涵义、假设进行阐述,再系统性地介绍了预储蓄理论中的主流模型,并比较它们的优点和局限性,以及国内外学者针对预防性储蓄的测算结果,最后介绍该研究领域出现的新进展,本部分力图为后文的深入做好理论铺垫。第三部分为理论模型的构建。将发展型消费和生存型消费这两个变量同时纳入二元CRRA效用函数,从而重新推导欧拉方程,获得基于双不确定性来源的预防性储蓄动机的理论模型,并重新计算相对谨慎系数；同时基于理论模型,对挤占效应的形成机制进行说明。第四部分为实证分析。先对发展型消费的支出额进行描述性统计分析,并进行横向与纵向的比较,从而揭示城镇居民消费结构的特征。再通过测算不同支出类型消费额的基尼系数,对地区间发展型消费的非均衡性进行分析。在理论模型的基础上构建计量模型,通过选取相关数据,估计城镇居民针对发展型消费的预防性储蓄强度,并验证在实际中是否存在发展型消费对生存型消费的挤占效应。最后对预防性储蓄动机强度呈现出的地区差异进行比较分析。最后一部分为本文的结论,通过对分析研究结果进行归纳总结,为扩大内需和推进居民消费结构升级提出合理的政策建议。本文的研究意义在于：从实践应用角度来讲,研究了城镇居民针对发展型消费进行的预防性储蓄,估计了它的强度,并对影响因素进行了分析,为制定有效推进居民消费结构升级,改善人民生活水平的经济政策提供现实依据。从理论意义角度来讲,本文基于双不确定性来源框架,重新推导预防性储蓄动机模型,并获得了双不确定性来源情形下相对谨慎系数的计算方法,同时还能反映出不同消费支出之间的挤占效应。本文可以看作是对传统的Dynan模型的拓展深化,可以丰富居民预防性储蓄的研究方法。本文的基本结论是：地区间发展型消费支出的差距逐年扩大；城镇居民针对发展型消费存在着显著的预防性储蓄动机,相对谨慎系数为2.55,两类消费的交互效应对预防性储蓄具有正向的冲击作用；生存型消费对发展型消费产生了显著的挤占效应；与中西部地区相比,东部地区的城镇居民针对发展型消费的预防性储蓄动机较弱,但他们所面临的生存型消费带来的挤占效应更强。最后,文章从提高城镇居民可支配收入、推进产业结构调整、完善社会保障制度和发展消费信贷市场四个方面提出了政策建议。
[Abstract]:In the more than ten years of entering twenty-first Century, China's economy is growing rapidly with investment as the main driving force. As far as this is concerned, the miracle of China's growth is attracting the attention of the world. However, with the high growth of economy, the consumption structure of residents has been escalating and the savings rate has risen sharply. In the ten years of 2002-2011, the consumption structure of urban residents in China The average annual change is only 0.39, far below the 1.18 of 1992-2001 years and the savings rate rises from 37.9% to 52.6%. This phenomenon is called "the mystery of China's savings". On the one hand, the structural imbalance between investment and consumption has laid a hidden danger for the future economic growth; on the other hand, the upgrading of the consumption structure of the people is not conducive to the livelihood of the people's livelihood. Improve.
The consumption expenditure of residents can be roughly divided into two categories: one is to maintain the consumption expenditure necessary for the basic life and the living consumption of "clothing, food and living" expenditure. The other is to meet the spiritual needs and improve the stock of knowledge and skills of human capital to ensure the development type consumption that the consumer needs in the future. The increase in the proportion of total consumption means the optimization and upgrading of the consumption structure and the improvement of the living standard of the residents. This index is an important basis for the state to formulate relevant policies for the construction of the livelihood of the people, especially in the background of the haze of the global financial crisis and the shortage of domestic demand. It is of great benefit to promote the upgrading of industrial structure and the formulation of policies to expand domestic demand.
In China, in the process of economic reform, various institutional changes have made domestic residents face various uncertainties. Under this special background, it is necessary to study the reasons for the development of residents' development consumption, whether it is from the theoretical development or the economic practice. Therefore, the research on the preventive storage of the development type consumption is necessary. On the basis of combing the recent research achievements in this field, this paper builds a new theoretical model and builds a new theoretical model. This paper makes a quantitative study on the Preventive Savings Behavior of urban residents in view of development consumption, and tries to explore the reasons for the slow upgrading of the residents' consumption structure in combination with the squeeze effect.
The research content of this article is composed of the following five parts: the first part is the preface, which briefly introduces the background of this topic, the significance of the research, the overview of the research object and the main content, outlines the overall framework of the article. The second part is a literature review, which opens along two clues. The first clue combines the demand of different expenditure types to the rigid, This paper introduces the research achievements on the effect of survival type consumption and development type consumption. The second clues first expatiate on the meaning of the preventive savings theory, the hypothesis, and systematically introduce the mainstream model in the pre savings theory, and compare their advantages and limitations, as well as the results of the domestic and foreign scholars on the calculation of preventive savings. The third part is the construction of the theoretical model. The two variables of the development type consumption and the survival type consumption are incorporated into the two yuan CRRA utility function, thus the Euler equation is derived and the prevention based on the dual uncertainty source is obtained. The theoretical model of savings motivation, and the re calculation of the relative prudence coefficient; meanwhile, based on the theoretical model, the formation mechanism of the crowding effect is explained. The fourth part is an empirical analysis. First, the descriptive statistical analysis of the expenditure of development type consumption is carried out, and the horizontal and vertical comparison is carried out to reveal the special consumption structure of urban residents. By calculating the Gini coefficient of different expenditure types, this paper analyzes the non equilibrium of the development type consumption between regions. Based on the theoretical model, we construct the measurement model and select the relevant data to estimate the preventive saving strength of the urban residents for the development type consumption, and verify whether there is a developmental elimination in the actual situation. The final part is the conclusion of this paper. The final part is the conclusion of this paper. Through the analysis of the results of the analysis, we put forward reasonable policy suggestions for expanding domestic demand and promoting the upgrading of residents' consumption structure.
The significance of this study is: from the perspective of practical application, this paper studies the preventive savings made by urban residents for the development type consumption, estimates its intensity, and analyses the influencing factors, providing a realistic basis for formulating the economic policy of promoting the upgrading of residents' consumption structure and improving the living standard of the people. From the point of view, this paper, based on the dual uncertainty source framework, derives the Preventive Savings motivation model, and obtains the calculation method of the relative prudence coefficient under the dual uncertainty source, and can also reflect the squeezing effect between different consumption expenditures. This paper can be regarded as the expansion of the traditional Dynan model. Research methods to enrich residents' Preventive Savings.
The basic conclusion of this paper is that the gap between the development type consumption expenditure is widening year by year; the urban residents have significant preventive savings motives for the development type consumption, the relative prudence coefficient is 2.55, the interaction effect of the two types of consumption has a positive impact on the Preventive Savings, and the survival type consumption has produced the development consumption. Significant squeezing effect; compared with the central and western regions, the urban residents in the eastern region are weaker in the Preventive Savings motives for the development type consumption, but their existence type consumption is more effective. Finally, the article is to improve the urban residents' disposable income, push into the industrial structure adjustment, improve the social security system and develop the social security system. The policy recommendations are put forward in four aspects of the consumer credit market.

【学位授予单位】：浙江工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.22;F224

【参考文献】