我国上市银行高盈利与低股价现象的研究

发布时间：2018-05-03 08:44

本文选题：上市银行 + 高盈利　；参考：《南京财经大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：根据2012年上市公司发布的半年报来看,尽管多数上市公司业绩下滑,银行业却一枝独秀,共实现净利润5452.29亿元,同比增长18%。不过业绩利好并未在资本市场上有所反映。2012年上半年,工商银行的股价下跌了6.40%,建设银行的股价下跌了6.67%,招商银行的股价下跌了6.43%,华夏银行的股价甚至下跌了14.84%。可以看出,银行业出现了高盈利与低股价的现象。为什么银行业高盈利却低股价?这正是本文所要研究的问题。不良贷款率是隐藏在银行体系中的“定时炸弹”,一旦被触发,随时会让银行业绩大幅下滑。股票市场的价格很多时候就是投资者心理预期的反应。本文通过整理各行业(共12个行业分类)2008-2011年的相关财务指标数据,从各行业尤其是钢铁业的还贷能力这个角度出发,来研究银行业预期的风险。首先,本文回顾了我国银行业的发展历程以及股票定价的相关理论—估值理论。根据估值理论,本文针对银行业的低股价现象提出了两大研究假设：一是银行业盈利预期增长率放缓,二是银行业预期不良贷款风险上升。本文接着分析了银行业高盈利的影响因素,并通过搜集整理了银行业2008-2011年的营业收入增长率数据,发现银行业预期增长率放缓,从而验证了假设1。然后,本文搜集整理了各行业的相关财务指标数据,通过EXCEL等统计工具的处理,发现各行业的盈利能力以及长期偿债能力水平下降,从而使得其还贷能力下降,增加了银行业贷款的风险,从而验证了假设2。最后,本文选取钢铁业为代表来分析银行预期不良贷款风险。因为钢铁业是资金密集型行业,有着巨额银行贷款。本部分分析了钢铁业的现状以及盈利能力、长期偿债能力等财务指标,发现钢铁业整体的偿债能力和盈利能力都在下降,可以预期钢铁业的不良贷款将大幅上升,增加了上市银行的贷款风险,银行业预期不良贷款水平有上升的趋势,从而进一步验证了假设2。
[Abstract]:Despite the decline in earnings for most listed companies, the banking sector is outperforming, with a combined net profit of 545.229 billion yuan, up 18.5 billion yuan, according to the semi-annual results released by listed companies in 2012. But the positive results are not reflected in the capital markets. ICBC's share price fell 6.40% in the first half of 2012, CCB's fell 6.67%, China Merchants' shares fell 6.43% and Huaxia's even fell 14.84%. Can see, the banking industry appeared high profit and the phenomenon of low stock price. Why do banks have high profits but low stock prices? This is precisely the question that this text wants to study. The non-performing loan ratio is a time bomb hidden in the banking system, which, if triggered, can cause a sharp decline in bank performance at any time. Stock market prices are often reactions to investors' psychological expectations. This paper studies the expected risks of banking industry from the perspective of the ability to repay loans in all industries, especially the steel industry, by collating the relevant financial index data from 2008 to 2011 in 12 industries (altogether 12 industries classified). First of all, this paper reviews the development of China's banking industry and the stock pricing theory-valuation theory. According to the valuation theory, this paper puts forward two hypotheses in view of the low stock price phenomenon of the banking industry: one is that the expected growth rate of banking profit is slowing down, the other is the rise of the expected risk of non-performing loans in the banking sector. This paper then analyzes the factors influencing the banking industry's high profitability, and by collecting and collating the data of the banking revenue growth rate in 2008-2011, it finds that the expected growth rate of the banking industry is slowing down, thus validating the hypothesis 1. Then, this paper collects and collates the relevant financial index data of various industries, through the processing of EXCEL and other statistical tools, we find that the profitability and long-term solvency level of each industry has decreased, thus making its ability to repay loans decline. Increases the risk of bank loans, thus validating hypothesis 2. 5. Finally, this paper chooses the steel industry as the representative to analyze the expected non-performing loan risk. Because the steel industry is a capital-intensive industry, with huge bank loans. This part analyzes the current situation of the steel industry, profitability, long-term solvency and other financial indicators. It is found that the overall solvency and profitability of the steel industry are declining, and it can be expected that the non-performing loans of the steel industry will rise substantially. It increases the loan risk of listed banks, and the expected non-performing loan level of the banking industry tends to rise, which further verifies the assumption of 2. 5%.
【学位授予单位】：南京财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.33;F830.42

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