我国近年通货膨胀的成因分析

发布时间：2018-05-04 09:47

本文选题：通货膨胀 + 金融危机　；参考：《南京财经大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：通货膨胀是伴随着经济发展的不可避免的经济现象，而且一直以来也是与普通居民关系最紧密的经济现象之一。进入二十一世纪以来，物价的快速上涨已经引起了国民广泛的关注，尤其是2008年国际性的金融危机之后，经济不景气的情况下，我国物价水平仍然保持较快的上涨幅度。另一方面，我国对外开放程度越来越高，也越来越容易受外部经济影响，类似于本次金融危机的国际性经济衰退并非从此杜绝。因此分析近年特定环境下的通胀成因，是对未来具有借鉴意义的。本文旨在对2008年金融危机后我国通货膨胀的成因进行研究，得到本轮通胀的成因，并与金融危机前通货膨胀的成因相比较，分析变化原因，提出相关建议。本文在回顾以往的理论和研究的基础上，从货币因素、需求拉动、成本推动和输入型通胀四个方面来研究成因的性质。根据理论结合实际，选取一系列变量代表四个方面的成因，通过相关性分析和因子分析构建新指标，得到5个指标代表影响因素。再建立向量自回归模型，利用Granger因果检验、脉冲响应函数、方差分解等手段对指标和通货膨胀的关系建立模型，判断本轮通胀性质。得到本轮通货膨胀是由成本推动和需求拉动引起的，而货币因素并不是成因，输入型通胀的性质也不显著。再通过误差修正模型对输入型通胀性质中的变量进行进一步分析，发现进口商品价格指数对国内大宗商品价格和消费者价格指数都有明显影响，说明虽然整体性质不显著，但还是具有一定输入型通胀的性质。为了展现通货膨胀成因在经济环境下的特征，本文又分析了金融危机前，我国通货膨胀的性质，并与本轮通胀的成因进行比较。实证结果表明，金融危机前我国的通货膨胀主要是由货币因素和输入因素引起的，成本推动和需求拉动并不显著。金融危机前后通胀成因的变化表明了不同经济环境对通货膨胀的诱导源头的不同。针对金融危机背景下的通货膨胀成因，，本文最后从产业政策、需求结构、财政和货币政策、外汇政策等方面提出了相关建议。
[Abstract]:Inflation is an inevitable economic phenomenon with economic development, and has always been one of the most closely related economic phenomena with ordinary residents. Since the 21 century, the rapid rise of prices has aroused widespread concern of the people, especially after the international financial crisis in 2008, the economic recession, China's price level is still maintaining a relatively rapid rise. On the other hand, China's opening to the outside world is becoming more and more high, and it is also more and more vulnerable to external economic influence. The international economic recession similar to the current financial crisis is not eliminated from this time. Therefore, the analysis of the causes of inflation under specific circumstances in recent years is useful for the future. The purpose of this paper is to study the causes of inflation in China after the financial crisis of 2008, to obtain the causes of inflation in this round, and to compare the causes of inflation with those before the financial crisis, to analyze the causes of changes, and to put forward some relevant suggestions. On the basis of reviewing the previous theories and studies, this paper studies the nature of the causes from four aspects: monetary factors, demand-driven, cost-driven and imported inflation. According to the combination of theory and practice, a series of variables are selected to represent the causes of formation in four aspects. Through correlation analysis and factor analysis, a new index is constructed, and five indicators are obtained to represent the influencing factors. Then the vector autoregressive model is established and the relationship between inflation and index is established by means of Granger causality test impulse response function and variance decomposition to judge the nature of inflation in this round. This round of inflation is caused by cost-driven and demand-driven, but the monetary factor is not the cause, and the nature of imported inflation is not significant. Then through the error correction model to further analyze the variables in the nature of imported inflation, it is found that the import commodity price index has a significant impact on both domestic commodity prices and consumer price indices, indicating that although the overall nature is not significant, But it still has the nature of imported inflation. In order to show the characteristics of the causes of inflation in the economic environment, this paper analyzes the nature of inflation in China before the financial crisis, and compares it with the causes of inflation in this round. The empirical results show that before the financial crisis, China's inflation was mainly caused by monetary factors and input factors, but the cost push and demand pull were not significant. The changes of the causes of inflation before and after the financial crisis show that the sources of inflation are different in different economic environments. In view of the causes of inflation under the background of financial crisis, this paper puts forward some suggestions from industrial policy, demand structure, fiscal and monetary policy, foreign exchange policy and so on.
【学位授予单位】：南京财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F822.5;F224

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