新凯恩斯框架下中国通货膨胀动态变化及货币政策分析

发布时间：2018-05-07 09:13

本文选题：新凯恩斯主义 + 菲利普斯曲线　；参考：《审计与经济研究》2011年03期

【摘要】：以新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线为分析框架,在考虑利率滞后项和预期项的情况下,通过最优化中央银行的目标损失,构建中国的通货膨胀方程,并采用1992年以来的季度数据对中国通货膨胀的形成因素进行实证分析,以研究我国货币政策对通货膨胀事后调节和事前引导的实际效果。实证结果显示,我国的通货膨胀水平主要受经济主体通货膨胀预期和产出缺口的影响;利率变化在短期内并不改变通货膨胀的变化方向,不过随着利率市场化改革的深入,利率对通货膨胀的影响逐步显现;预期实际利率对当期物价波动有着正向引导作用,并且在子样本的稳健性分析中证实这种关系有加强趋势。这些实证检验结果对我国调控物价水平及制定更加有效的货币政策提供理论支持。
[Abstract]:Taking the new Keynesian Phillips curve as the analysis frame, the inflation equation of China is constructed by optimizing the target losses of the central bank under the consideration of the interest rate lag term and the expected term. By using the quarterly data since 1992, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the forming factors of China's inflation, in order to study the actual effect of China's monetary policy on the afterwards adjustment of inflation and its prior guidance. The empirical results show that the inflation level in China is mainly affected by inflation expectations and output gaps among economic agents, and the change in interest rates does not change the direction of inflation in the short term, but with the deepening of interest rate marketization reform, The effect of interest rate on inflation is gradually apparent, and the expected real interest rate has a positive guiding effect on the current price fluctuation, and the robustness analysis of the subsample proves that this relationship has a strengthening trend. These empirical results provide theoretical support for China to regulate price level and formulate more effective monetary policy.
【作者单位】：南京大学经济学院;南京审计学院经济学院;中国人民大学财政金融学院;
【基金】：教育部社科规划基金项目(07JC790016);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“金融创新、资本市场与区域经济增长”课题(10JJD790027)
【分类号】：F224;F822.5;F822.0

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