“碳陷阱”:理论辨析与政策导向

发布时间：2018-05-09 16:50

本文选题：碳陷阱 + 碳排放强度　；参考：《经济学家》2011年10期

【摘要】：在《京都议定书》面临失效的国际环境下,中国不以其它国家减排为条件的减排承诺及相关实证研究的缺乏,加重了人们对三种"低碳陷阱"的忧虑。理性地辨析"碳陷阱",关系到中国发展模式及相关政策的选择。本文基于低碳经济与金融发展理论指出,即使国际强制碳减排不复存在,中国的低碳发展目标不仅仍需坚持而且可行。相对"低碳陷阱","高碳陷阱"是中国面临的更现实的风险。基于欧盟14个国家2005—2009年面板数据建立的双固定效应模型则进一步证实:相对减排目标是可行的,经济增长有助于实现相对减排目标,碳金融对降低碳排放强度也有显著的积极作用,自主碳排放强度的区域结构则说明中国应在碳博弈中增强自主性。
[Abstract]:In the international environment where the Kyoto Protocol is facing failure, China's commitment to reduce emissions not conditional on other countries' emission reduction and the lack of relevant empirical research have increased people's worries about the three "low carbon traps". The rational discrimination and analysis of "carbon trap" is related to the choice of China's development model and related policies. Based on the theory of low-carbon economy and financial development, this paper points out that even if the international compulsory carbon abatement no longer exists, China's low-carbon development goal should not only be adhered to but also feasible. Compared with low-carbon trap, high-carbon trap is a more realistic risk for China. The dual-fixed effect model based on the panel data of 14 EU countries from 2005 to 2009 further confirms that the relative emission reduction target is feasible and that economic growth contributes to the achievement of the relative emission reduction target. Carbon finance also plays a positive role in reducing carbon emission intensity. The regional structure of independent carbon emission intensity indicates that China should strengthen its autonomy in carbon game.
【作者单位】：吉林大学中国国有经济研究中心;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重点项目(10AJL006) 吉林大学985工程项目、吉林大学创新团队项目(2009TD005)
【分类号】：X321;F832.5

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