东亚货币合作可行性与中国的战略选择

发布时间：2018-05-11 04:00

本文选题：东亚 + 最优货币区理论　；参考：《云南财经大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：经济全球化背景下，区域货币合作成为主流趋势。本文回顾了东亚货币合作可行性研究的相关文献及最优货币区理论发展历程。基于东亚地区的经济冲击指标，对东亚货币合作的可行性进行了分析，包括东亚地区各国经济波动的一致性、外部经济冲击的对称性这两个指标。在结构向量自回归模型中将经济冲击分解为供给冲击和需求冲击，采用1980-2010年样本数据区间进行分析，认为东亚经济体应进一步加强政策协调，东亚区域货币合作可以在次区域展开。同时，回顾了东亚货币合作进程，结合实证结果分析了东亚货币合作所面临的困难。本文分析了区域货币合作实践对东亚货币合作的启示，包括欧洲货币合作以及拉丁美洲的美元化。同时，分析了欧元区主权债务危机的发生所暴露出的欧元区制度弊端，认为区域货币合作不可能一蹴而就，需要稳步推进，，需要各个经济体的共同推动。综合考虑多种因素，目前欧元模式不是东亚货币合作的理想模式。在主导货币区域化模式中，人民币有成为区域主导货币的可能。如果东亚地区开展多层次的货币安排，比较贴合目前东亚的实际情况。无论以哪种形式进行合作，都取决于东亚地区经济体的共识。本文还分析了东亚货币合作的具体措施。最后，在分析中国参与东亚货币合作意义的基础上，提出了中国所应采取的对策。中国应积极参与东亚货币合作。
[Abstract]:Under the background of economic globalization, regional monetary cooperation has become the mainstream trend. This paper reviews the relevant literature on the feasibility study of monetary cooperation in East Asia and the development of the optimal currency area theory. Based on the economic impact index in East Asia, the feasibility of monetary cooperation in East Asia is analyzed, including the consistency of economic fluctuation and the symmetry of external economic shock in East Asia. In the structural vector autoregressive model, the economic shock is decomposed into supply shock and demand shock, and the sample data interval from 1980 to 2010 is used to analyze, and it is concluded that East Asian economies should further strengthen policy coordination. East Asia regional monetary cooperation can be carried out in the subregion. At the same time, the paper reviews the process of monetary cooperation in East Asia, and analyzes the difficulties of monetary cooperation in East Asia based on empirical results. This paper analyzes the enlightenment of regional monetary cooperation to East Asian monetary cooperation, including European monetary cooperation and dollarization in Latin America. At the same time, the paper analyzes the shortcomings of the euro zone system exposed by the sovereign debt crisis in the euro zone, and points out that regional monetary cooperation cannot be achieved overnight and needs to be pushed forward steadily and jointly by various economies. Considering a variety of factors, the current euro model is not an ideal model for East Asian monetary cooperation. In the pattern of regionalization of dominant currency, RMB is likely to become the dominant currency in the region. If the East Asian region carries out multi-level monetary arrangements, more in line with the current actual situation in East Asia. Any form of co-operation depends on the consensus of the East Asian economies. This paper also analyzes the specific measures of monetary cooperation in East Asia. Finally, on the basis of analyzing the significance of China's participation in East Asian monetary cooperation, the author puts forward the countermeasures that China should take. China should actively participate in monetary cooperation in East Asia.
【学位授予单位】：云南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F821.6

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