中国对外直接投资的就业效应研究

发布时间：2018-05-13 17:59

本文选题：对外直接投资 + 母国就业　；参考：《广东外语外贸大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：作为“走出去”战略的重要组成部分，中国对外直接投资的起步虽然较晚，发展却相当迅速。目前，中国已经成为国际投资领域的重要资本输出国，并且由于独特的经济特征的作用，中国将会在未来的发展中持续进行对外直接投资，EIU预测中国或将在2017年成为净对外投资输出国。随着规模的扩大，对外直接投资会对中国经济产生越来越重要的影响。与此同时，就业乃民生之本，时下由于国内、国外复杂的经济环境的作用，我国的就业问题日益严峻。尽管国内外对中国对外直接投资的研究不胜枚举，但涉及效应层面的研究却相对较少，具体到就业层面的则更少。因此，鉴于我国“对外直接投资规模高速扩张的必然趋势”与“就业形势长期化的严峻形势”，本文致力于从就业层面对中国对外直接投资的母国效应进行分析，试图回答以下问题：一国进行对外直接投资是否会对本国就业造成影响？如果存在影响那么是积极的还是消极的？具体到我国的对外直接投资与就业之间又有怎样的关联？我国是否能够将对外直接投资作为减轻就业压力的一条潜在路径？针对上述问题，本文从动机视角对对外直接投资的相关理论进行梳理并以此为依托，对现阶段我国对外直接投资以及就业的发展状况进行了现实考察、同时结合美国、日本的发展历程作为经验检验，构建了一个对外直接投资影响母国就业的传导机制框架。以此为基础，本文通过模型的建立，在我国统计数据的基础上运用计量经济学软件进行回归模型的估计、修正与检验，得出结论：对外直接投资对我国就业的直接效应和间接效应均为正。其中，经过投资传导渠道的间接效应为负，即对外直接投资一定程度上替代了国内投资；经贸易渠道的间接效应为正，，即由于对外直接投资对国内出口规模产生了刺激效应，两者之和的间接效应为正，总体上对外直接投资促进了我国就业的增长；从以三大产业为划分依据的就业结构层面来看，对外直接投资降低了我国第一产业人员的就业比重，略微提高了第二产业人员的就业比重，同时较显著的提高了我国第三产业人员的就业比重，一定程度上促进了就业结构的优化；从就业质量的层面来看，对外直接投资对劳动者素质的提高有一定的积极效应，但这种影响具有滞后性且效果较小。最后根据研究的结果,提出在对外直接投资的发展规划上，可以通过加大对出口带动能力强、投资收益高同时投资风险小、有利于拓展我国产品在国外市场占有率的项目的投资力度以及完善投资主体培育、优化投资产业选择与投资区位选择等措施,使外直接投资的就业效应能够得到更有利的发挥。
[Abstract]:As an important part of the "going out" strategy, China's foreign direct investment (OFDI) started relatively late, but developed rapidly. At present, China has become an important capital exporter in the field of international investment, and because of its unique economic characteristics, China will continue to make foreign direct investment in the future. The EIU predicts that China may become a net outward investment exporter in 2017. With the expansion of scale, foreign direct investment will have more and more important impact on China's economy. At the same time, employment is the foundation of people's livelihood. Although there are too many studies on China's FDI at home and abroad, there are relatively few studies on the effect level, and even less on the employment level. Therefore, in view of the "inevitable trend of the rapid expansion of the scale of FDI" and the "severe situation of long-term employment situation" in China, this paper is devoted to the analysis of the home country effect of China's FDI from the employment level. An attempt was made to answer the question: would a country's outward direct investment have an impact on its own employment? If there is an impact, is it positive or negative? What is the relationship between China's foreign direct investment and employment? Can China use OFDI as a potential way to reduce employment pressure? In view of the above problems, this paper combs the relevant theories of FDI from the perspective of motivation and makes a realistic investigation of the development of FDI and employment in China at this stage, combining with the United States. As an empirical test, Japan constructs a transmission mechanism of FDI affecting employment in home countries. On this basis, this paper uses econometrics software to estimate, revise and test the regression model based on the statistical data of our country. The conclusion is that the direct and indirect effects of FDI on employment are both positive. Among them, the indirect effect through the channel of investment transmission is negative, that is, foreign direct investment replaces domestic investment to some extent, and the indirect effect of trade channel is positive, that is, because of the stimulating effect of foreign direct investment on the scale of domestic exports, The indirect effect of the sum of the two is positive, and on the whole, foreign direct investment (FDI) promotes the growth of employment in China, and from the level of employment structure based on the division of the three major industries, FDI reduces the employment proportion of the first industry personnel in China. Slightly increased the employment proportion of the secondary industry personnel, at the same time increased the employment proportion of the tertiary industry personnel significantly, to some extent promoted the optimization of the employment structure; from the aspect of employment quality, Foreign direct investment has some positive effect on the improvement of laborer's quality, but this influence has the lag and the effect is small. Finally, according to the results of the research, it is suggested that in the development planning of outward direct investment, we can increase the ability to promote exports, and increase the investment income and reduce the investment risk. In order to make the employment effect of foreign direct investment more favorable, the investment dynamics of the projects which are conducive to expanding the market share of our products in foreign countries and perfecting the cultivation of investment main body and optimizing the choice of investment industry and investment location can be improved.
【学位授予单位】：广东外语外贸大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.6;F249.21

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