人民币升值对中国对外直接投资的影响研究

发布时间：2018-05-21 17:31

本文选题：人民币 + 升值　；参考：《东北师范大学》2013年博士论文

【摘要】：二十世纪九十年代，经济全球化和区域经济一体化的浪潮席卷全球。借助信息技术的高速发展，国际贸易、跨国投资和国际金融得到了迅猛发展，世界经济呈现出空前紧密联系的发展趋势。作为新兴市场经济体、一个发展中的大国，中国成为经济全球化的深度参与者。中国经济的持续快速增长，并呈现出与全球经济相互依赖日益紧密的趋势已成为不争的事实。中国与世界经济的密切联系主要体现在庞大的国际贸易规模和由此产生且独立运行的巨额国际资本流动两个方面。其中，国际直接投资扮演着越来越重要的角色。2002年,中央提出“走出去”战略,鼓励有比较优势的各类所有制企业开展对外直接投资,中国的对外直接投资规模开始迅速增长。到2010年底,中国对外直接投资存量达到了3172.1亿美元,是2005年底同一指标的5.5倍；而2010年中国对外直接投资净额创下688.1亿美元的历史最高值，是“十五”期间中国对外直接投资总额的2.3倍。从发展前景来看，中国在经过长期大幅度引进外国直接投资的鼎盛期之后,将逐渐迎来对外直接投资的高潮。自2005年7月21日，中国实行新的汇率制度以来，人民币汇率上下波动的区间显著扩大，人民币升值的趋势愈发明朗：从2006年至2011年，人民币兑美元全年累计升值幅度分别为6.80%、6.88%、3.35%、0.12%、3.0%和5.11%，虽然从2008年7月以后，人民币升值的幅度明显减小，然而由于种种原因，人民币升值的压力却是长期存在的。在开放经济中，汇率作为两国货币之间的比价，决定国内外商品和生产要素的相对价格，从而决定了国际直接投资的流向和规模，成为影响国际直接投资的重要因素。然而，传统的国际投资理论很少从金融角度分析。纵观国内外学者的研究，有的从微观角度考察跨国公司向外扩张的原因、投资区位以及投资进入方式等内容（如垄断优势理论、内部化理论、国际生产折衷论和寡占反应论），有的从中观层面探索跨国公司投资带来的产业转移、产业结构升级等内容（如产品生命周期论、边际产业扩散论），还有一些宏观层面的研究，包括波特的国家竞争优势理论等，这些理论多是针对发达资本主义国家在特定历史阶段进行研究的产物，而关于汇率的变动对国际直接投资影响的研究却始终没有形成系统的结论和完整的理论体系。对于发展中国家，，其特定的国际政治地位和特殊的内部政治、经济体制，决定了其汇率形成机制及其变化对于一国对外直接投资的影响与作用机制不同于发达国家，而理论上关于这部分内容的探讨却鲜见于文。在这种特定的历史背景下，关于人民币升值和波动对中国对外直接投资影响的研究亟待展开。这些研究的结论将完善发展中国家的对外直接投资理论，推动国际直接投资理论不断向前发展。在这个过程中，如何构建一个统一的理论框架，将汇率水平的变化和汇率波动幅度对国际直接投资的影响形成系统的结论，从而形成基于汇率视角的国际直接投资理论的新学说，将成为未来一个阶段国际直接投资理论研究的新任务。人民币长期稳定的小幅度升值及短期内的阶段性贬值，对于不同类型中国对外直接投资的规模和结构将产生哪些影响？人民币升值对于中国对外直接投资影响的宏观传导机制是什么？在人民币升值过程中产生的汇率波动怎样影响中国企业的对外直接投资决策？鼓励中国企业进行广泛的对外直接投资能否缓解长期存在的人民币升值压力？在中国进一步推进“走出去”战略的大背景下，中国企业该如何正确认识人民币升值带来的优势和弊端？这些正是本文研究的具体问题。本文综合运用规范分析、模型分析和实证分析的研究方法，主要结合国际金融学、国际投资学、西方经济学等学科的理论对于人民币升值对中国对外直接投资规模和结构的影响及作用机理进行了系统研究。全文共分为六个主要部分，第一部分是汇率变动对国际直接投资影响的一般理论基础。第一章首先介绍了汇率变动的基础理论—汇率决定与波动理论体系，接下来介绍了汇率变动对国际直接投资影响的主要理论：相对成本论、相对财富论、风险规避论和实际期权论，上述四个理论为本文的数学模型奠定了重要的思想方法基础。第二部分是汇率变动对国际直接投资影响的研究文献综述。第二章，作者按照汇率变动对国际直接投资影响研究的演进脉络，对国外研究文献的经典方法、理论流派进行了归纳和总结，并对相关理论和文献进行评述；对于国内的研究，详细回顾了人民币升值对中国对外直接投资影响的研究文献综述，并对该领域未来的发展方向进行展望。第三部分介绍了人民币升值和中国对外直接投资的历史沿革。第三章首先介绍了人民币升值的历程，继而深入分析了人民币升值的具体原因及持久性；接着对于中国对外直接投资活动的历史、现状及其特点进行了回顾。第四部分进行了人民币升值对中国对外直接投资影响的理论分析。在数理模型分析部分，通过构造汇率不确定条件下，跨国公司的最优投资决策模型，本文详细讨论了人民币预期升值和人民币汇率波动幅度增大对于中国对外直接投资规模和结构的影响机制；在宏观传导机制分析部分，探讨了人民币升值对中国对外直接投资影响的利率传导机制和价格传导机制；在利弊分析部分，总结了人民币预期升值对于中国对外直接投资带来的有利和不利影响。第五部分是人民币升值对中国对外直接投资影响的实证分析。第五章首先用面板数据的固定效应模型分析了人民币升值对中国对外直接投资规模的影响，接下来对人民币升值对中国对外直接投资结构的影响进行了经验分析，探讨了人民币升值对中国对外直接投资产业结构、区位结构和投资主体结构的影响。第六部分为人民币升值对中国对外直接投资影响的规范分析。第六章探讨了人民币升值背景下，中国对外直接投资的对策建议，并分别从政府层面的对策和企业层面的对策进行了论证。本文的模型分析表明：人民币预期升值有利于中国开展成本导向型对外直接投资，而不利于中国进行市场导向型对外直接投资；人民币预期升值对于劳动密集型对外直接投资的影响较大，而对于资本密集型对外直接投资的影响较小；人民币预期升值会影响中国对外直接投资的结构，而人民币汇率的波动幅度对于对外直接投资的结构无影响；人民币汇率波动幅度增加，则成本导向型和市场导向型对外直接投资的规模都减小。人民币升值通过利率传导机制和价格传导机制作用于中国的对外直接投资。本文的实证分析表明：人民币预期升值、人民币汇率的波动对于中国对外直接投资的规模有显著影响：人民币预期升值有利于中国对外直接投资规模的扩大，而人民币汇率波动幅度的增加使中国对外直接投资的规模下降，现阶段人民币升值对于中国对外直接投资总规模的影响不显著。中国目前的对外直接投资以成本导向型为主，而成本导向型直接投资和市场导向型直接投资的比例接近。人民币升值使得流向亚洲和非洲的对外直接投资规模逐年增加；人民币升值使采矿业和交通运输业的对外直接投资总额明显增加；人民币升值预期使国有企业对外直接投资的比例下降，有限责任公司的对外直接投资比例上升。在上述研究的基础上，本文提出了以下对策建议：政府对于人民币汇率形成机制的调节应与“走出去”战略协调发展；合理利用人民币升值带来的低成本优势和相对财富优势，进行对外直接投资的产业选择和区位布局；实行促进对外直接投资的财政金融优惠政策；加强企业内部的核心竞争力、合理利用人民币升值带来的相对财富优势，谨慎并稳步开展中国企业的海外并购；利用人民币升值的机遇，鼓励民营企业、中小企业对外直接投资的集群发展模式等。
[Abstract]:In 1990s, the tide of economic globalization and regional economic integration swept the world. With the rapid development of information technology, international trade, transnational investment and international finance have developed rapidly. The world economy presents an unprecedented development trend of close ties. As a new market economy, a developing country, China becomes a big country. As a deep participant in economic globalization, China's sustained and rapid economic growth has become an indisputable fact of increasing interdependence with the global economy. The close relationship between China and the world economy is mainly reflected in the large scale of international trade and the huge flow of international capital from which it produces and operates independently. Two Among them, international direct investment plays a more and more important role in.2002. The Central Committee has put forward the "go out" strategy and encourage all kinds of ownership enterprises with comparative advantages to carry out foreign direct investment, and the scale of China's foreign direct investment has been growing rapidly. By the end of 2010, the stock of China's foreign direct investment reached 317 billion 210 million US dollars, It was 5.5 times that of the same target at the end of 2005, and the highest value of China's net foreign direct investment reached US $68 billion 810 million in 2010, which was 2.3 times the total amount of China's foreign direct investment during the "fifteen" period. From the perspective of development, China will gradually usher in the foreign direct investment after a long and large introduction of foreign direct investment. The high tide of investment.
Since July 21, 2005, since the implementation of the new exchange rate system in China, the range of the RMB exchange rate fluctuates significantly. The trend of RMB appreciation is becoming clearer. From 2006 to 2011, the cumulative appreciation of RMB against the dollar was 6.80%, 6.88%, 3.35%, 0.12%, 3% and 5.11% respectively, although the RMB has appreciated since July 2008. Because of various reasons, however, the pressure of the appreciation of the RMB exists for a long time. In the open economy, the exchange rate, as the price between the two currencies, determines the relative price of goods and production factors at home and abroad, thus determining the flow and scale of the international direct investment and becoming an important factor affecting the international direct investment. However, the traditional international investment theory is rarely analyzed from the financial perspective. Looking at the domestic and foreign scholars' research, some of the reasons for the outward expansion of MNCs, the investment location and the way of investment entry (such as the monopoly advantage theory, the internalization theory, the inter national production compromise theory and the oligopoly reactivity theory), and some from the middle level To explore the industrial transfer and the upgrading of the industrial structure, such as the product life cycle theory, the marginal industry diffusion theory, and some macro level studies, including Potter's theory of national competitive advantage, and so on. The study on the impact of exchange rate changes on international direct investment has never formed a systematic conclusion and a complete theoretical system. For developing countries, their specific international political status and special internal politics and economic system determine the influence and effect of their exchange rate formation mechanism and its changes on a country's foreign direct investment. The system is different from the developed countries, but the theoretical discussion on this part is rarely seen in literature.
Under this specific historical background, the research on the impact of RMB appreciation and volatility on China's foreign direct investment is urgent. The conclusions of these studies will improve the foreign direct investment theory of developing countries and promote the continuous development of the theory of international direct investment. In this process, how to build a unified theoretical framework The change of exchange rate and the impact of exchange rate fluctuation on international direct investment will form a systematic conclusion, thus forming a new theory of international direct investment theory based on the exchange rate perspective. It will become a new task in the study of the theory of international direct investment in the future. The small amplitude appreciation of the long-term stability of RMB and the period in the short term What are the effects of sexual devaluation on the size and structure of different types of FDI in China? What is the macro transmission mechanism of the impact of RMB appreciation on China's foreign direct investment? How does the exchange rate fluctuations in the process of RMB appreciation affect Chinese enterprises' foreign direct investment decisions? Encourage Chinese enterprises to do so Can a wide range of foreign direct investment relieve the pressure of RMB appreciation for a long time? In the context of further promoting the "going out" strategy in China, how should Chinese enterprises correctly understand the advantages and disadvantages of RMB appreciation? These are the specific problems in this paper.
This paper makes a systematic study of the influence and mechanism of RMB appreciation on the scale and structure of China's foreign direct investment, including the theories of normative analysis, model analysis and empirical analysis, which are mainly combined with the theories of international finance, international investment and western economics. The full text is divided into six main parts. Part one is the general theoretical basis of the impact of exchange rate changes on international direct investment. Chapter 1 first introduces the basic theory of exchange rate change, the exchange rate decision and the theory of volatility, and then introduces the main theories of the influence of exchange rate changes on International Direct Investment: relative cost theory, relative wealth theory, risk aversion theory and real option. The above four theories have laid an important ideological and method foundation for the mathematical model of this article. The second part is the literature review of the influence of exchange rate changes on international direct investment. The second chapter, the author according to the evolution of the influence of exchange rate changes to the international direct investment, the classical methods of foreign research literature and the theoretical schools. This paper summarizes and summarizes the related theories and literature, and reviews the literature review on the impact of RMB appreciation on China's foreign direct investment in the domestic research, and looks forward to the future development direction of this field. The third part introduces the historical evolution of RMB appreciation and China's foreign direct investment. The three chapter first introduces the course of RMB appreciation, and then analyzes the specific reasons and persistence of RMB appreciation, and then reviews the history, current situation and characteristics of China's foreign direct investment activities. The fourth part has carried out the theoretical analysis of the influence of RMB appreciation to China's foreign direct investment. In the analysis part, by constructing the optimal investment decision model of MNCs under the uncertainty of the exchange rate, this paper discusses the influence mechanism of the RMB expectation appreciation and the increase of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on the scale and structure of China's foreign direct investment. The interest rate transmission mechanism and price transmission mechanism influenced by foreign direct investment; in the analysis of advantages and disadvantages, it summarizes the favorable and unfavorable effects of the expected appreciation of RMB on China's foreign direct investment. The fifth part is the empirical analysis of the impact of the appreciation of RMB on China's foreign direct investment. The fifth chapter first uses panel data to fix it. The effect of RMB appreciation on the scale of China's foreign direct investment is analyzed by the fixed effect model. Then, the influence of RMB appreciation on China's foreign direct investment structure is analyzed, and the influence of RMB appreciation on the industrial structure, location structure and investment main structure of China's foreign direct investment is discussed. The sixth part is the human being. A normative analysis of the impact of the appreciation of the people's currency on China's foreign direct investment. The sixth chapter discusses the countermeasures and suggestions of China's foreign direct investment in the context of the appreciation of the RMB, and demonstrates the countermeasures from the government level and the enterprise level respectively.
The analysis of the model shows that the expected appreciation of RMB is beneficial for China to carry out cost oriented foreign direct investment, but not to China's market oriented foreign direct investment; the expected appreciation of RMB has great influence on labor intensive foreign direct investment, while the impact on capital intensive FDI is small. The expected appreciation of RMB will affect the structure of China's foreign direct investment, while the volatility of the RMB exchange rate has no effect on the structure of foreign direct investment; the increase of the fluctuation amplitude of the RMB exchange rate will reduce the scale of the cost oriented and market oriented foreign direct investment. The empirical analysis of this paper shows that the expected appreciation of RMB and the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate have a significant impact on the scale of China's Foreign Direct Investment: the expected appreciation of RMB is beneficial to the expansion of the scale of China's foreign direct investment and the increase of the fluctuation range of the RMB exchange rate. The scale of China's foreign direct investment has declined. At present, the impact of RMB appreciation on the total size of China's foreign direct investment is not significant. China's current FDI is mainly cost oriented, while the proportion of the cost oriented direct direct investment and the market oriented direct investment is close. The appreciation of RMB has led to Asia and Africa. The scale of foreign direct investment has increased year by year; the appreciation of the RMB has greatly increased the total foreign direct investment of the mining industry and transportation industry; the expectation of the RMB appreciation has made the proportion of the foreign direct investment of the state-owned enterprises down, and the proportion of the foreign direct investment of the limited liability companies has risen.
On the basis of the above research, this paper puts forward the following countermeasures and suggestions: the government should coordinate the development of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism with the "go out" strategy; make rational use of the low cost advantage and relative wealth advantage brought by the appreciation of RMB, carry out the industrial selection and location layout of the foreign direct investment; carry out the promotion of the policy. The financial and financial preferential policies of foreign direct investment; strengthen the core competitiveness inside the enterprise, make rational use of the relative wealth advantage brought by the appreciation of RMB, carefully and steadily carry out the overseas merger and acquisition of Chinese enterprises; use the opportunity of RMB appreciation to encourage the private enterprises and the cluster development model of foreign direct investment in small and medium enterprises.
【学位授予单位】：东北师范大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.6

【参考文献】