央票利率可以作为货币政策的综合性指标

发布时间：2018-05-27 06:24

本文选题：央票利率 + 货币政策　；参考：《经济研究》2011年S2期

【摘要】：当前货币政策操作发展趋势是由数量型调控向价格型调控体系转型,此过程的关键是找出能取代M2来代表货币政策状况的综合性指标。本文通过理论和实证分析,发现并证明了央票发行利率能够综合代表数量型和价格型的货币政策,其可测性、可控性、相关性比较理想,优于新增贷款和M2等数量型指标,也优于SHIBOR、基准存款利率等价格型指标。进一步分析发现,货币政策对产出的影响先于对物价的影响,很好地显示了当前产出和物价的波动;货币政策对贷款的影响先于对存款的影响,货币政策调控重点关注信贷增长是合适的;在货币政策调控中,把握时滞很关键,不能仅根据物价走势决定货币政策松紧。可结合利率市场化和汇率改革的推进,完善央票利率期限结构,建立央票(短中期)和国债(中长期)相衔接的基准利率体系,逐步把央票利率培育成央行未来的价格型调控工具。
[Abstract]:At present, the development trend of monetary policy operation is from quantitative control to price control system. The key of this process is to find out the comprehensive index which can replace M2 to represent the monetary policy situation. Through theoretical and empirical analysis, this paper finds and proves that the central bill issuing interest rate can represent both quantitative and price-oriented monetary policy, and its measurability, controllability and relevance are ideal, which are superior to the quantitative indicators such as new loans and M2, etc. Also superior to SHIBOR, benchmark deposit interest rate and other price indicators. Further analysis shows that the influence of monetary policy on output is prior to that on price, which shows the current fluctuation of output and price, and that the influence of monetary policy on loan is prior to that on deposit. It is appropriate for monetary policy regulation to focus on credit growth; in monetary policy regulation, it is crucial to grasp the time delay, and monetary policy should not be decided only according to price trend. With the promotion of interest rate liberalization and exchange rate reform, we can perfect the term structure of central interest rates and establish a benchmark interest rate system linking central bank notes (short and medium term) and national debt (medium and long term). Gradually develop the central bank interest rate into the central bank's future price-type control tools.
【作者单位】：中国人民银行货币政策二司;国际货币基金组织;
【分类号】：F822.0

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