我国主要出口行业人民币升值承受力研究

发布时间：2018-05-28 09:42

本文选题：出口行业 + 人民币升值承受力　；参考：《浙江工商大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着人民币汇率形成机制市场化改革的不断推进,人民币汇率持续上扬。人民币升值会对我国出口行业的发展造成深远影响：一方面,人民币升值能够有效改善我国对外贸易结构,加快我国产业结构调整步伐；另一方面,过快的人民币升值节奏会对我国出口行业发展产生明显的抑制作用。在全球经济复苏缓慢,我国出口增速持续放缓的当下,准确测算我国出口行业的人民币升值承受能力,并在此基础上制定“共同但有区别的”行业扶持政策,对于我国实现外贸模式转型,优化提升产业结构显然具有十分重要的现实意义。因此,本文拟深入、全面、系统研究人民币升值承受力的理论内涵及其影响因素,建立相应测算体系,进而对我国主要出口行业人民币升值承受力进行测算。本文首先基于汇率不完全传递现象普遍存在的事实,对人民币升值承受力这一概念进行了理论界定。所谓人民币升值承受力,是指当人民币升值以致以本币计价的出口产品的价格下降至其成本水平时的人民币汇率升值幅度。通过构建并分析相关理论模型可以发现,产品的需求弹性、产品利润率及产品的汇率弹性分别与人民币升值承受力呈负相关、正相关、正相关关系。在短期内,由于行业结构无法改变,因而利润率和汇率弹性是影响人民币升值承受力的主要因素。在此基础上,本文进一步构建了人民币升值承受力的测算方法。其次,为明确人民币升值对我国出口行业的影响及不同行业间存在的差异,本文分别概述了人民币汇率形成机制沿革及其波动情况,并对煤炭、钢铁、纺织、服装、电子产品制造、粮食加工和汽车等七个我国主要出口行业在行业发展和人民币升值影响方面存在的差异进行了分析。有基于此,本文利用2003-2012年相关数据对我国主要出口行业的人民币升值承受力进行了测算。结果表明：我国主要出口行业在人民币升值承受力方面存在较大差异。汽车、煤炭行业能够承受10%以上的人民币升值,粮食加工业的人民币升值承受力约为6%,而服装和纺织行业仅能承受1%至3%的人民币升值幅度。此外,电子产品制造业的人民币升值承受力仅为0.12%,钢铁行业则完全不具备人民币升值承受力。实证结果表明,当前的人民币升值节奏较为合理。一方面,除电子产品制造业和钢铁行业外,我国多数主要出口行业能够承受1%左右的人民币升值幅度。因此,目前的人民币升值节奏不会对我国出口行业的发展造成严重影响。另一方面,当前的人民币升值幅度已接近纺织、服装行业的承受极限,且会对电子产品制造业和钢铁行业产生较大影响。因而人民币升值能对我国出口行业形成有效的倒逼机制,加速我国各出口行业的产业结构调整升级步伐。全文内容共分六个部分。第一章为引论,主要阐明本文的研究背景和研究框架。第二章为文献综述,简要评述相关方面的研究成果并进一步明确本文主要研究内容。第三章为理论研究,通过构建理论研究模型对人民币升值承受力的概念、影响因素和测算方式进行研究。第四章为现状分析,主要概述了人民币汇率形成机制沿革及其波动情况,并对我国主要出口行业所受影响进行说明。第五章为实证检验,结合上文研究结果对我国主要出口行业人民币升值承受力进行实证测算。第六章为全文结论,主要总结本文结论并提出相应的政策建议。
[Abstract]:With the development of RMB exchange rate forming mechanism , the RMB exchange rate will continue to rise . The appreciation of RMB will have a profound impact on the development of China ' s export industry : on the one hand , RMB appreciation can effectively improve our foreign trade structure and accelerate the pace of industrial structure adjustment in our country ;
On the other hand , the fast pace of RMB appreciation can restrain the development of China ' s export industry .

Based on the fact that the exchange rate is not completely transmitted , this paper theoretically defines the concept of RMB appreciation . By constructing and analyzing the theory model , it is pointed out that the demand elasticity of the product , the profit margin of the product and the elasticity of the exchange rate of the product are negatively correlated with the appreciation of RMB .

Secondly , in order to clarify the impact of RMB appreciation on China ' s export industry and the difference between different industries , this paper gives an overview of the evolution of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism and its fluctuation , and analyzes the differences between China ' s main export industries , such as coal , steel , textile , clothing , electronics manufacturing , food processing and automobile .

On the basis of this , the paper calculates the bearing capacity of RMB appreciation in China ' s main export industry by using the relevant data of 2003 - 2012 . The results show that China ' s main export industry is able to bear more than 10 % RMB appreciation , while the value of RMB appreciation of the food processing industry is about 6 % , while the clothing and textile industry can bear only 1 % to 3 % RMB appreciation . In addition , the value of RMB appreciation of the electronic product manufacturing industry is only 0.12 % , and the steel industry does not have the force of appreciation of RMB .

The empirical results show that the current RMB appreciation rhythm is reasonable . On the one hand , in addition to the electronics manufacturing industry and the steel industry , most of China ' s main export industries can bear the value of RMB appreciation of about 1 % . Therefore , the current RMB appreciation rhythm will not have a serious impact on the development of China ' s export industry .

Chapter 1 is an introduction to the research background and the research framework of this paper . Chapter one is the research background and the research framework of this paper . Chapter two provides a summary of the literature , summarizes the research results of the related aspects and further clarifies the main research contents of this paper .
【学位授予单位】：浙江工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F752.62;F832.6

【参考文献】