“新常态”下我国货币政策中间目标选择的实证研究

发布时间：2018-06-01 03:12

本文选题：新常态 + 货币供应量　；参考：《华东交通大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：2016年3月,李克强总理在政府工作报告中指出,今年经济增长的预期目标为6.5-7.0%区间,进一步预示着我国经济增长周期将由高速增长阶段转向中高速增长阶段。自08年国际金融危机以来,生产成本上升、技术进步方式变化、投资收益率下降、出口导向型增长不可持续,这几个因素使得中国经济进入了一个“新常态”。在经济“新常态”下,合理地选择一个货币政策中间目标,是货币政策传导机制能否有效运转,进而实现货币政策最终目标的保证。就此,本文在基于现有货币政策的基础上,对我国可选择的货币政策中间目标以及其对宏观调控的效用进行了较为详细的研究和探讨。论文以货币政策中间目标的选择为核心,首先,对国内外学者关于货币政策中间目标选择的相关文献进行了综述,过往文献的研究主要是围绕数量型中间目标和价格型中间目标的选择争论,这种争论的理论来源是凯恩斯主义和货币主义的争论,凯恩斯主义学派认为利率是一国货币政策的核心,而货币主义学派则强调货币供应量的作用;其次从理论层面对货币政策的中间目标的相关理论进行了详细的阐述,包括货币政策中间目标的相关概念、选择标准以及货币政策传导渠道理论。回顾了中西方货币政策的演进历程。我国向来是以货币供应量作为中间目标,而在“新常态”背景下,以利率为代表的价格型货币政策中间目标是否更适合于我国实际情况,是本文的主要研究观点。然后,根据我国经济“新常态”的基本经济情况,列出了我国当前货币政策选择所存在的问题。同时,在遵循相关理论的原则下,遴选出符合我国现阶段经济运行下的价格型和数量型货币政策中间目标,如货币供应量,一年期贷款基准利率、SHIBOR以及汇率等。再次,在实证检验中,样本数据选取了2008年到2015年相关经济变量的月度指标,构建了VAR模型,利用广义脉冲响应和方差分解的方法考量了货币供应量(M2)、贷款基准利率、SHIBOR、汇率等指标,他们分别对GDP增长率、居民消费品物价指数(CPI)的影响力和贡献程度,即检验了他们在经济增长和稳定物价上是否有效。实证结果表明,一年期贷款基准利率对GDP的影响程度最大,说明现有以货币供应量为代表的数量型货币政策中间目标值得商榷。而在稳定物价方面,货币供应量对CPI的影响较大,说明我国的利率等指标在货币政策传导上还不够通畅,但其效用正在逐步增强,价格型中间目标在我国货币政策中的运用将越来越重要。论文的最后为我国在“新常态”时期下的货币政策中间目标选择和提高货币政策有效性上提出了相关意见。
[Abstract]:In March 2016, Premier Li Keqiang pointed out in the government work report that the expected target of economic growth this year is 6.5-7.0% interval, which further indicates that China's economic growth cycle will turn from high growth stage to medium and high speed growth stage. Since the 08 years of the international financial crisis, the production has risen, the technological progress is changed, and the rate of return on investment is under the rate of return. Down, export oriented growth is not sustainable, these factors make China's economy enter a "new normal". Under the "new normal" economy, a reasonable choice of a monetary policy intermediate target is the guarantee of the effective operation of monetary policy transmission mechanism and the ultimate goal of monetary policy. On the basis of currency policy, this paper makes a more detailed study and Discussion on the intermediate target of our country's choice of monetary policy and its effect on the macro regulation. The thesis focuses on the choice of the intermediate targets of monetary policy. First, the literature of the domestic and foreign scholars on the choice of monetary policy intermediate targets is reviewed, and the past literature is used. The research is mainly about the selection of the intermediate targets and the middle target of the price type, which is the theoretical source of the debate between Keynes and monetarism. The Keynes school believes that the interest rate is the core of the monetary policy of a country, while the monetarist school emphasizes the role of the supply of currency. The relevant theories of the intermediate targets of the currency policy are elaborated in detail, including the related concepts of the intermediate targets of monetary policy, the selection criteria and the transmission channel theory of monetary policy. The evolution of the monetary policy in China and the west is reviewed. The main research point of this paper is whether the intermediate target of the price type monetary policy is more suitable for the actual situation of our country. Then, according to the basic economic situation of our country's "new normal" economy, this paper lists the existing problems in the choice of monetary policy in our country. The intermediate targets of price and quantitative monetary policy under the stage of stage economy, such as the money supply, the one-year loan benchmark interest rate, the SHIBOR and the exchange rate, etc. again, in the empirical test, the sample data selected the monthly index of the related economic variables from 2008 to 2015, and constructed the VAR model, using the generalized impulse response and the variance decomposition. The method examined the M2, the loan benchmark interest rate, the SHIBOR, the exchange rate and other indicators. Their influence and contribution to the growth rate of GDP and the consumer commodity price index (CPI) respectively, that is, whether they are effective in economic growth and price stability. The empirical results show that the one year loan benchmark interest rate has the most impact on the GDP. It is worth discussing the intermediate target of the quantitative monetary policy represented by the money supply. In the aspect of stabilizing the price, the influence of the money supply on the CPI is great, which indicates that the interest rate of our country is not smooth in the transmission of monetary policy, but its utility is being driven by Bu Zengqiang, the middle target of the price type is in China's monetary policy. The application of China will be more and more important. At the end of this paper, we put forward some suggestions on the choice of the middle target of monetary policy and the improvement of the effectiveness of monetary policy in the period of "new normal".
【学位授予单位】：华东交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F822.0

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