海峡两岸货币合作研究

发布时间：2018-06-05 11:46

本文选题：海峡两岸 + 货币合作　；参考：《南开大学》2013年博士论文

【摘要】：区域货币合作是当今世界经济和金融领域的核心问题。对货币合作的研究最早可以追溯到1958年特里芬提出的单一国际货币的理论构想,此后在蒙代尔等学者的不断完善下,形成了现代一系列货币合作研究理论,其中最有代表意义的是最优货币区理论(OCA)。该理论认为,货币合作是一个由低级形态向高级形态演化、由松散型向紧密型发展的动态过程,这个过程也称为“货币一体化”过程,其最高形态是在区域内达成单一货币流动的货币同盟。该理论还认为,货币合作的内在动力来源于货币合作伙伴之间日益紧密的经济关系,同时区域内货币金融政策的更高层次融合,也会带来区域整体的均衡和稳定发展。货币合作也是一个现实概念。越来越多的国家和地区就加强国际和区域货币合作的必要性和重要性达成了共识,“一个国家,一种货币”的理念逐渐转变为“一个市场,一种货币”的理念,1999年欧元的诞生、“泛美元化”在拉美等国的掀起、东亚地区的经济和货币整合都对此作出了实践的诠释。特别是1997年亚洲金融危机和2008年全球金融危机的爆发,极大地提升各经济体对区域货币合作必要性的重视,研究货币合作问题更具有必要性和现实意义。大陆和台湾同处东亚地区,在区域合作范畴上,海峡两岸货币合作属于东亚货币合作的子区域,但是由于两岸关系的特殊性,在具体研究中两岸货币合作往往被简化处理或直接忽略,到目前为止还没有专门对两岸货币合作领域进行深入分析的论著,也无法形成有力的理论武器指导两岸货币合作实践。另一方面,2008年以来在和平发展主旋律下,两岸初步形成了政经互动局面,商品贸易、人员和资金呈现频繁而热络的互动现象,两岸金融监管合作备忘录(MOU)和货币清算协议签署后,学术界、实业界和广大民众对海峡两岸货币合作的期待日益强烈。在上述背景下,分析海峡两岸货币合作问题,不仅具有理论研究的前瞻性,也极具现实指导意义。对两岸货币合作的研究,本文是以最优货币区理论为依据,构建了衡量海峡两岸货币合作现实经济基础的研究体系,探讨了两岸向更高阶段进行货币合作的可行性,指出了影响两岸货币合作进程的因素,并在对比分析全球主要区域货币合作实践的基础上,提出了两岸货币合作进程中可能的模式和路径。全文共分七章。第一章导论,介绍研究背景、研究内容和研究方法。第二章理清货币合作的概念、内容和进程,初步分析两岸货币合作的现状和进展。第三章对最优货币区理论和相关文献进行综述。第四章建立了衡量两岸货币合作经济基础的研究体系,分析现阶段两岸货币合作向更高阶段进行的可能性,并甄别了影响货币合作进程的主要经济因素。第五章对比分析了拉美国家“美元化”、欧洲单一货币和东亚货币合作三种实践,总结经验和启示。第六章提出两岸货币合作可能的模式和路径,并提出相关政策建议。第七章是全文主要结论和进一步研究方向。通过对两岸货币合作进展和经济基础的分析,文章得到如下观点：一、对海峡两岸货币合作领域的现状和进展分析表明,目前两岸处于货币合作的初级阶段。若向更高层次的货币合作发展,需要克服的诸多问题和困难。其中外部因素和内部政治因素是最主要的影响因素。其影响表现在,以美国为代表的外部因素增加了货币合作的复杂性；东亚货币合作提供了“强政治”突破货币合作中经济障碍的经验；两岸之间政治关系决定了货币合作的走向。二、依据最优货币区理论,本文构建了衡量两岸货币合作经济基础的研究体系。该体系包括三个研究层次,分别是静态单一指标衡量、静态OCA综合指数模型衡量和动态内生性约束检验。其中,静态单一指标衡量和静态OCA综合指数模型衡量两者的分析结果都表明,当前两岸基本不具备向货币合作较高阶段进行的经济基础和前提。对“内生性”动态模型的检验表明,宏观经济趋同性和以双边贸易联系为指标的经济合作日趋密切状况,两者存在明显正向关系,满足“内生性”假说约束,两岸具备货币合作的长期动态约束条件,这意味着,现阶段货币合作的成本将由建立货币区之后的收益弥补,两岸构建最优货币区从一个较长时期而言仍是最佳选择。三、通过对两岸货币合作经济基础的考察,本文甄别了影响两岸货币合作的影响因素。其中,两岸经济规模的差异较大和双边贸易联系紧密是最主要的影响因素。更进一步,前者导致了货币合作的成本,后者为货币合作带来了收益。静态分析的结果说明,经济规模差异较大造成的成本超过了贸易紧密带来的收益,从而两岸不具备货币合作向高阶段进行的条件。动态分析结果则说明,静态状态的净成本将由货币区建立后的收益弥补。四、在货币合作模式和路径选择方面,本文认为人民币可以作为两岸货币合作的核心货币,一方面人民币具备一定的区域影响力,人民币国际化过程使其成为了准国际货币,满足核心货币的要求条件；另一方面人民币国际化和两岸货币合作两者相辅相成、互相促进,选择人民币作为核心货币会进一步丰富两岸货币合作内容,使其进展进行更顺畅。在货币合作路径选择上,笔者认为短期内,两岸应该在建立货币清算机制基础上,继续加强全面的经济联系,建立信息交流机制,组建统一的机构用于协商和讨论金融监控问题,加快建立落实两岸货币互换机制,加大支持两岸经贸往来中使用本币的力度；在中长期,则是推动实现两岸的汇率政策、货币政策的统一,从而达成两岸货币一体化。最后,本文认为贸易领域以人民币结算和在台建立人民币离岸金融中心,是两岸近期货币合作的主要内容,并提出了相关建议。
[Abstract]:Regional monetary cooperation is the core issue in the economic and financial fields of the world. The research on monetary cooperation can be traced back to the theoretical conception of a single international currency put forward by Terry in 1958. After the continuous improvement of scholars such as Mundell, a series of modern theories of monetary cooperation have been formed. The most representative of which is the theory of monetary cooperation. The theory of optimal currency area (OCA). This theory holds that monetary cooperation is a dynamic process from a low-level form to an advanced form, from a loose to close development. This process is also called the "monetary integration" process. The highest form is a monetary union that reaches a single currency flow in the region. The internal impetus is derived from the increasingly close economic relations between the monetary partners, and the higher integration of monetary and financial policies in the region will also bring about a balanced and stable development of the regional overall.
Monetary cooperation is also a realistic concept. More and more countries and regions have reached consensus on the necessity and importance of strengthening international and regional monetary cooperation. The concept of "one country, one currency" is gradually transformed into the concept of "one market, one currency", the birth of the euro in 1999 and the "Pan dollar" in Latin America and other countries. The economic and monetary integration in East Asia has been interpreted in practice. In particular, the Asian financial crisis in 1997 and the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008 have greatly promoted the importance of the economic cooperation in the region to the necessity of regional monetary cooperation. It is more necessary and practical to study the issue of monetary cooperation.
The mainland and Taiwan are in the same region of East Asia. In the area of regional cooperation, the monetary cooperation between the two sides of the Taiwan Straits belongs to the subregion of East Asian monetary cooperation. However, because of the particularity of the cross-strait relations, the monetary cooperation between the two sides of the Taiwan Straits is often simplified or ignored. So far, there has not been an in-depth study on the field of monetary cooperation between the two sides. On the other hand, under the theme of peaceful development, the interaction between the two sides of the two sides of the Taiwan Straits has been formed under the theme of peaceful development since 2008. On the other hand, the interaction between the two sides of the two sides of the Taiwan Straits, commodity trade, the frequent and enthusiastic interaction of personnel and funds, the MOU and the monetary clearing Association After the signing, the academia, the industry and the masses are looking forward to the monetary cooperation between the two sides of the Taiwan Straits. In this context, the analysis of the cross straits monetary cooperation is not only forward-looking but also of practical guiding significance.
On the basis of the theory of optimal currency area, this paper builds a research system to measure the realistic economic basis of monetary cooperation between the two sides of the Taiwan Straits, discusses the feasibility of monetary cooperation between the two sides of the Taiwan Straits, points out the factors that affect the process of monetary cooperation between the two sides of the Straits, and compares and analyses the major regional currencies in the world. On the basis of cooperative practice, it puts forward the possible modes and paths in the process of Cross Straits monetary cooperation. The full text is divided into seven chapters. The first chapter is introduction, introducing the research background, research content and research methods. The second chapter clarifies the concept, content and process of monetary cooperation, and preliminarily analyzes the current situation and progress of monetary cooperation between the two sides of the Straits. The third chapter is on the optimal currency area. The fourth chapter sets up a research system to measure the economic basis of the monetary cooperation between the two sides of the Straits, analyzes the possibility of the currency cooperation in the present stage to a higher stage, and discriminating the main economic factors that affect the process of monetary cooperation. The fifth chapter compares and analyzes the "Dollarization" of Latin American countries and the single European currency in Latin America. And the three practices of monetary cooperation in East Asia, summing up experience and enlightenment. The sixth chapter puts forward the possible mode and path of Cross Straits monetary cooperation, and puts forward relevant policy suggestions. The seventh chapter is the main conclusion and further research direction of the full text.
Through the analysis of the progress and economic foundation of monetary cooperation between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, the following points are obtained:
First, the analysis of the current situation and progress in the field of monetary cooperation between the two sides of the Taiwan Straits shows that the two sides are at the primary stage of monetary cooperation. If they develop to a higher level of monetary cooperation, there are many problems and difficulties to be overcome. The external and internal political factors are the most important factors. External factors increase the complexity of monetary cooperation; East Asian monetary cooperation provides "strong politics" to break through the experience of economic barriers in monetary cooperation; the political relations between the two sides of the Straits determine the trend of monetary cooperation.
Two, based on the optimal currency area theory, this paper constructs a research system to measure the monetary basis of the cross-strait monetary cooperation. The system consists of three research levels, which are static single index measurement, static OCA comprehensive index model measurement and dynamic endogenous constraint test. Both the analysis results show that the current cross-Straits basically do not have the basic economic basis and prerequisite to the higher stage of monetary cooperation. The test of the dynamic model of "endogenous" shows that the economic cooperation of the macroeconomic convergence and bilateral trade relations is becoming increasingly close, and there is a clear positive relationship between the two and the "endogenous". "The hypothesis is constrained by the long-term dynamic constraints of monetary cooperation between the two sides, which means that the cost of monetary cooperation at this stage will be made up of the income after the establishment of the currency area, and the optimal currency area on both sides of the Straits is still the best choice for a long period of time.
Three, through the investigation of the monetary basis of the cross straits monetary cooperation, this paper identifies the influencing factors that affect the monetary cooperation between the two sides of the Straits. Among them, the large differences in the scale of the two sides of the Straits and the close relations of bilateral trade are the most important factors. Further, the former leads to the cost of monetary cooperation, the latter brings the income of monetary cooperation. The result of the analysis shows that the cost of large scale of economic scale is more than the income brought by trade, and the two sides do not have the conditions for the high stage of monetary cooperation. The dynamic analysis results show that the net cost of the static state will be made up by the income after the establishment of the currency area.
Four, in terms of the mode of monetary cooperation and the choice of path, the RMB can be the core currency of the monetary cooperation between the two sides. On the one hand, the RMB has certain regional influence. The process of RMB internationalization makes it a quasi international currency to meet the requirements of the core currency; on the other hand, RMB internationalization and cross straits currency. Cooperation both complement each other and promote each other. The choice of RMB as the core currency will further enrich the content of monetary cooperation between the two sides of the Taiwan Straits and make its progress more smooth. In the choice of monetary cooperation, the author believes that in the short term, the two sides should continue to strengthen comprehensive economic relations and establish an information exchange machine on the basis of the establishment of a monetary clearing mechanism. The establishment of a unified organization to negotiate and discuss financial monitoring and control problems, speed up the establishment and implementation of the cross straits currency exchange mechanism, and increase the support for the use of local currency in the cross straits economic and trade exchanges; in the middle and long term, it is to promote the exchange rate policy of the two sides, the unification of monetary policy and the integration of Cross Straits monetary integration. The RMB settlement and the establishment of offshore financial centers in Taiwan are the main contents of the recent monetary cooperation between the two sides, and relevant suggestions are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：南开大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F822

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