基于非对称国际货币体系视角的人民币对外战略选择

发布时间：2018-06-07 00:30

本文选题：非对称国际货币体系 + 人民币国际化　；参考：《南开大学》2013年博士论文

【摘要】：当前国际货币体系最主要的特征是：主要发展中国家选择固定或者有管理浮动汇率制度,而发达国家选择了自由浮动汇率制度；相对于发达国家发展中国家汇率是贬值的；发展中国家资本项目通常存在一定程度的管制,而发达国家资本项目大多是自由开放的；另外,发展中国家倾向于积累外汇储备。理论界将该体系称之为“复活的布雷顿森林体系”或“布雷顿森林II体系”。 “非对称性”是当前国际货币体系的根本属性,也是布雷顿森林II体系的主要成因,所谓的国际货币体系“非对称性”是指发展中国家货币为非国际货币,发达国家货币通常为国际货币,美元占据霸权地位。国际货币体系“非对称性”最直接的结果是“非公平性”,相对于发行国际货币的发达国家,发行非国际货币的发展中国家面临着更多的成本和风险,如非可替代性战略资源价格冲击风险、货币危机风险、对外债务危机风险等等。为了防范此类风险、维护本国经济安全和促进经济增长,发展中国家对本国汇率进行适当的管理是必要而且是合理的,是应对非对称、非公平国际货币体系的必然选择。进行必要的汇率管理应该依托于两大目标支柱：一是出口导向消化本国剩余劳动力,二是防范货币非国际化所引致的国际风险。这两大目标并行不悖,他们共同要求发展中国家汇率不能完全自由浮动,且需要一定程度的贬值,以刺激出口,维持顺差,积累适当的外汇储备。外汇储备是发展中国家货币非国际化的必要替代和补充。我们称这样一种汇率管理战略为对外“弱势货币战略”。当然,固定或有管理浮动汇率制度存在一定的缺陷,对中国这样的大国而言,最佳战略应该是在防范风险的前提下推动人民币国际化,即采取所谓的“对外强势货币战略”。目前人民币国际化主要障碍在于资本项目开放风险,文章提出通过所谓的“国债战略”,即在资本项目适度管制条件下在离岸人民币金融市场大量发行人民币计价债券的方式来推动人民币国际化,这不仅能够有效地推动人民币国际化,还能够有效地规避和管控人民币国际化进程中的风险。
[Abstract]:The main characteristics of the current international monetary system are as follows: the main developing countries choose the fixed or managed floating exchange rate system, while the developed countries choose the free floating exchange rate system; Capital accounts in developing countries are generally subject to a certain degree of regulation, while capital accounts in developed countries are mostly free and open; in addition, developing countries tend to accumulate foreign exchange reserves. The theorists call this system "the resurrected Bretton Woods system" or "Bretton Woods II system". "asymmetry" is the fundamental attribute of the current international monetary system and the main cause of the Bretton Woods II system. The so-called "asymmetry" of the international monetary system means that the currencies of developing countries are non-international currencies. The currencies of developed countries are usually international currencies, and the dollar occupies a hegemonic position. The most direct result of the "asymmetry" of the international monetary system is "unfairness". Compared with the developed countries that issue the international currency, the developing countries that issue the non-international currency face more costs and risks. Such as alternative strategic resource price impact risk, currency crisis risk, external debt crisis risk and so on. In order to prevent this kind of risk, maintain the national economic security and promote economic growth, it is necessary and reasonable for developing countries to manage their exchange rate properly, and it is an inevitable choice to deal with the asymmetric and unfair international monetary system. The necessary exchange rate management should be based on two pillars: one is the export orientation to digest the surplus labor force, the other is to guard against the international risk caused by the non-internationalization of currency. They demand that the exchange rates of developing countries should not be completely free to float, and a certain degree of depreciation is needed to stimulate exports, maintain surplus, and accumulate appropriate foreign exchange reserves. The foreign exchange reserve is the developing country currency non-internationalization necessary substitution and the supplement. We call such an exchange rate management strategy an external "weak currency strategy". Of course, there are some defects in the fixed or floating exchange rate system. For a big country like China, the best strategy should be to promote the internationalization of RMB on the premise of guarding against risks, that is, to adopt the so-called "foreign strong currency strategy". At present, the main obstacle to the internationalization of the RMB is the risk of opening up the capital account. The article proposes to adopt the so-called "national debt strategy". That is, under the condition of moderate capital account control, the way in which a large number of renminbi-denominated bonds are issued in the offshore RMB financial market to promote the internationalization of the renminbi, this can not only effectively promote the internationalization of the renminbi, It can also effectively avoid and control the risks in the process of RMB internationalization.
【学位授予单位】：南开大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F821;F832.6

【参考文献】