不同信息框架下物价变化对通胀感知的影响

发布时间：2018-06-11 20:50

本文选题：通胀感知 + 物价变化　；参考：《宁波大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：因为各种原因的价格波动在经济社会中随处可见。即使在相对稳定的经济形势下，商品和服务的价格也会在不同的情况下变化很大。对物价变化的主观感受产生通胀感知。通胀感知影响通胀预期，进一步影响经济社会中个体的经济行为和经济决策。所以通胀感知的形成过程及影响因素是研究通胀感知和通胀预期的核心内容。本文就物价变化的涨跌方向和涨跌幅度两个方面，以实证研究的方式探讨了物价变化对通胀感知的影响。随后讨论了在不同信息框架下物价变化对通胀感知的调节作用。研究结果表明，受到损失厌恶的影响，当物价上涨时，物价变化更能影响个体对物价变化的感知。个体对快速消费品的物价变化也比对耐用品的物价变化敏感。实验四的研究结果显示，框架效应也在一定程度上对通胀感知有影响。这就提醒我们，媒体对已公布的宏观经济信息(包括相关数据与政策)的传播，必然是对消费者影响较大；而媒体观点的发表，则通过其舆论话语权，，对消费者产生主要影响。这些结论表明，在公众通胀感知的形成过程中，的确存在着媒体扩大效应。本文对通胀感知的研究，将会扩大感知通货膨胀趋势的认知机制的研究领域，并且寻求更多其他因素对于通货膨胀影响的研究，其中包括媒体扩大效应这类外部因素，以及预期和消费者对于价格的记忆和认知这种内部因素。如果我们了解这些机制的作用方式，我们将有可能更好的理解消费者对于价格改变的行为回应。当然，对于通货膨胀复杂性的思考是十分重要的，发现消费者因为自己的预期改变消费模式也是十分重要的，进一步加深对于消费者认知模型和其中的决定因素进行探究，是未来通胀感知研究领域的方向。
[Abstract]:Price fluctuations for various reasons can be seen everywhere in the economy and society. Even in a relatively stable economy, prices of goods and services can vary widely. The subjective perception of price changes produces a sense of inflation. Inflation perception affects inflation expectations and further affects economic behavior and economic decisions of individuals in economic society. Therefore, the forming process and influencing factors of inflation perception are the core contents of the study of inflation perception and inflation expectation. The influence of price change on inflation perception is discussed by empirical research. Then it discusses the adjustment effect of price change on inflation perception under different information frame. The results show that under the influence of loss aversion, when the price rises, the price change can affect the perception of the price change more. Individuals are also more sensitive to price changes for fast moving consumer goods than for durable goods. The results of experiment 4 show that the frame effect also has an effect on inflation perception to some extent. This reminds us that the dissemination of published macroeconomic information (including relevant data and policies) by the media is bound to have a greater impact on consumers, while the publication of media views has a major impact on consumers through their right to speak through public opinion. These conclusions indicate that there is a media expansion effect in the process of the formation of public inflation perception. The study of inflation perception in this paper will expand the research field of cognitive mechanism of perceived inflation trend. It also seeks more studies on the impact of inflation on other factors, including external factors such as the media expansion effect, as well as internal factors such as expectations and consumers' memories and perceptions of prices. If we understand how these mechanisms work, we will have a better understanding of how consumers respond to price changes. Of course, it is very important to think about the complexity of inflation. It is also very important to find that consumers change their consumption patterns because of their own expectations. It is also very important to further explore consumer cognitive models and their determinants. It is the direction of inflation perception research in the future.
【学位授予单位】：宁波大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F820.5

【共引文献】