土地批租制下房地产资产价格波动与金融安全研究

发布时间：2018-06-12 08:39

本文选题：金融安全 + 土地批租制度　；参考：《浙江工商大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：我国房地产市场在金融体系支持下,经历了多年的迅猛发展,投资规模、交易规模、信贷规模一直以来持续增长,与此同时,房地产市场价格也脱离居民家庭收入水平不断上涨,由此形成一定程度的价格泡沫,影响到金融体系的安全,引起了政界与学界的高度关注。然而,与目前房地产价格存在一定程度的泡沫相比,土地批租制导致的房地产市场价格与其资产内在价值背离所产生的系统性风险,对金融体系形成的威胁要更为严重。因为我国实行城市土地国有制度,同时将城市土地所有权与使用权分离,按一定年限出让土地使用权,这使得商品房出让土地使用权的投资价值小于土地资产的内在价值,且随着出让年限的减少而逐年递减,直至在出让期限届满时趋于零。这也意味着出让土地商品房资产的内在价值在土地出让期限临近时也同步趋近于零。从长期来看,任何资产的价格都应该由其内在价值决定,房地产市场上的商品房亦不能例外。在批租制下房地产资产价格应当随其内在价值的递减而逐渐递减,但房地产产市场现实情况却是,在经济持续向好以及金融体系支持的背景下,存量商品房和新建商品房的交易价格不受土地使用权年限的制约而持续上涨,房地产市场价格与其资产内在价值产生了严重背离。本文在上述分析土地使用权价值与商品房资产价值变化规律的基础上,提出了土地使用权“剩余年限当量”概念,从商品房市场整体的角度考察商品房市场所有存量房的资产价值变化规律,即在土地使用权出让期限内,房地产价格随着社会经济的发展和房地产需求的增加,会出现一段时期的上涨。随着出让剩余年限当量的减少,上涨幅度逐渐放缓,并最终出现下降,直至出让期限届满时价格趋近于零。在出让周期内,前期上涨幅度越高,持续时间越长,在后期价格下降幅度越大,下降速度也越快,相应的风险也越大。且当出让土地供应增量持续增加时,土地剩余年限当量平缓下降；当出让土地供应增量持续递减时,土地剩余年限当量将快速下降,这意味着商品房市场资产价值将快速进入整体性贬值阶段,亦即房地产市场系统性风险即将显现。由于我国商品房土地使用权尚处于一个完整出让周期(70年)的前半时期,土地批租制下土地使用权剩余年限当量对市场上房地产资产价格的影响不容易被察觉,市场参与者既无清晰的理论认识,也无现实中的感性认知。于是,市场参与者,包括宏观政策的决策者和执行者都高估了出让期限内存量商品房的资产价值,并据此进行交易和投资。正是这种市场参与者的群体性非理性行为,积聚着房地产市场的系统性风险,也影响了金融系统的安全。为了实证房地产资产价格波动与金融安全之间的关系,本文首先运用因子分子法构建了一个能够较为综合反映我国金融体系运行状况的金融安全指数(FSI),通过对照现实,我们发现本文得出的FSI指数能较好地描述我国的现实金融安全状况。因此,本文在此基础上,利用我国20002013年的季度数据对房地产资产价格波动与金融安全之间的关系进行了实证分析,得到如下实证结果：一是房地产资产价格波动会加剧我国金融安全状况的波动,影响金融体系运行的稳定性；二是金融安全指数的波动会显著影响到房地产资产价格的波动,金融安全状况的波动量对房地产资产价格波动的贡献率达到75%；三是在土地批租制对房地产资产价格影响尚不明显的背景下,实证结果已经显示了房地产资产价格波动与金融安全显著的负向相互影响关系,如果市场意识到土地批租制的影响,房地产资产将产生整体性贬值风险,价格波动对金融安全的负面影响将会更大。根据理论分析与实证结果,本文提出改一次性收取70年土地出让金的批租制为按年征收土地出让金的年租制,以改变商品房资产内在价值与市场价格的背离趋势,从根本上消除土地批租制下商品房资产整体贬值的系统性风险,同时还对我国金融安全指标体系的构建以及金融危机预警机制提出了相关建议。
[Abstract]:Under the support of the financial system, the real estate market of our country has experienced a rapid development for many years. The scale of investment, the scale of the transaction and the scale of credit have been increasing continuously. At the same time, the price of the real estate market has also gone up from the household income level, thus forming a certain range of price bubbles, which has caused the security of the financial system, and caused the security of the financial system. However, compared with the current real estate prices in a certain degree of bubble, the systematic risk that the real estate market price and the intrinsic value of the property caused by the land lease system deviate from the intrinsic value of the assets, the threat to the formation of the financial system is more serious.
Because the state system of urban land is carried out in China, the ownership of urban land and the right to use the land are separated and the right to use the land according to a certain number of years, which makes the investment value of the land use right less than the intrinsic value of the land assets, and decreases with the reduction of the year of the transfer until the expiration of the period of the transfer. It also means that the intrinsic value of the assets of the sale of the land commodity house is also close to zero when the land lease term approaches. In the long run, the price of any asset should be determined by its intrinsic value, and the commercial housing in the real estate market can not be excepted. The price of the property under the lease system should be diminishing with its intrinsic value. But in the real estate market, the real situation of real estate market is that under the background of sustained economic and financial system support, the price of the stock commodity house and new commercial housing is not restricted by the time of the land use right, and the real estate market price has a serious deviation from the intrinsic value of its assets.
On the basis of the analysis of the value of land use right and the change law of the value of the commercial housing assets, this paper puts forward the concept of "residual life equivalent" of the land use right, and examines the change law of the asset value of all the stock houses in the commodity housing market from the point of view of the overall market of the commodity housing market, that is, the real estate price follows the time limit of the land use right. With the development of social economy and the increase of real estate demand, it will rise for a period of time. With the reduction of the equivalent amount of the remainder, the rise is gradually slowing down and eventually falling, until the expiration of the sale period is close to zero. In the period of the selling period, the higher the increase, the longer the duration, and the later price. The greater the range, the faster the decline rate and the greater the risk. And when the land supply increment continues to increase, the amount of land remaining years will slow down; when the land supply increment continues to decrease, the amount of land surplus will decline rapidly, which means that the asset value of the commercial housing market will quickly enter into a holistic devaluation. The value stage, that is, the systemic risk of the real estate market is about to emerge.
As the land use right of China's commercial housing is still in the first half of the period of 70 years, the impact of land use right remaining time on the price of real estate assets on the market is not easy to be detected. Market participants have neither clear theoretical understanding nor realistic perceptual cognition. The decision-makers and implementers, including macro policy, overestimate the value of the asset value of the memory of the commercial housing, and carry on the transaction and investment accordingly. It is the collective irrational behavior of the market participants, which accumulates the systematic risk of the real estate market, and also affects the security of the financial system.
In order to demonstrate the relationship between the price fluctuation of real estate assets and the financial security, this paper first constructs a financial security index (FSI) which can reflect the operation of our financial system comprehensively by means of factor molecular method. Through the contrast reality, we find that the FSI index in this paper can describe the real financial security of our country better. Therefore, on the basis of this, this paper makes an empirical analysis on the relationship between the price fluctuation of real estate assets and the financial security by using the quarterly data of 20002013 years in China, and obtains the following empirical results: first, the fluctuation of real estate asset price will aggravate the fluctuation of the financial security situation in China and affect the stability of the financial system operation. The two is that the fluctuation of the financial safety index will significantly affect the fluctuation of the real estate asset price, the contribution rate of the volatility of the financial security situation to the real estate asset price fluctuation is 75%, and the three is that the real estate asset price fluctuation has shown the fluctuation of real estate assets under the background that the land rent system has no obvious influence on the real estate asset price. With the significant negative interaction relationship with financial security, if the market is aware of the impact of land lease system, real estate assets will produce overall devaluation risk, and the negative impact of price fluctuation on financial security will be greater.
According to the theoretical analysis and the empirical results, this paper proposes to change the renting system of land lease for 70 years as an annual rent system of land leasing, in order to change the deviant trend of the intrinsic value of the commercial housing assets and the market price, and to eliminate the systematic risk of the overall depreciation of the commercial housing assets under the land lease system, and also at the same time Some suggestions are put forward for the construction of China's financial security index system and financial crisis early warning mechanism.
【学位授予单位】：浙江工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23;F832

【参考文献】