人民币国际化进程战略框架研究

发布时间：2018-06-13 22:41

本文选题：人民币国际化 + 货币替代　；参考：《中共中央党校》2013年博士论文

【摘要】：自2008年世界性的金融危机发生之后，各国政府领导人、央行等金融监管机构管理者、金融经济专业的学者们纷纷重新审视与反思国际货币体系的潜在风险、金融体制深入改革的必要性以及美元占主导的国际货币体系存在的合理性与否等深层次经济难题。近30多年以来，随着中国国民经济持续、快速、稳定地增长，综合国力不断增强，人民币逐步走出国门，开始融入世界货币金融体系之中。同时，自20世纪90年代以来，我国的国际收支基本保持“双顺差”，外汇储备不断上升，外汇储备保值升值的经济压力也随之增大，为了解决外贸金融领域里结构性难题，需要尽快构建外国资本与国内实体经济之间的货币流通渠道，为此，中央政府一方面明确授权香港并致力于将其建设成为“人民币离岸中心”，另一方面在国家发改委发布的上海国际金融中心建设“十二五”规划中提出，到2015年要将其作为全球人民币中心的地位。在当前复杂、多变的国际经济金融形势背景下，中国政府与金融界将不得不面临如何应对汇率的频繁波动，如何应对全球的资本流动，如何借鉴国际货币的发展路径，如何把握人民币国际化的现状，如何推动人民币国际化的进程，如何对人民币国际化实行有效的管理等一系列突出问题的严峻挑战，而这些问题是否能够得到有效解决又必定将会对中国经济发展与金融秩序稳定起到决定性的影响作用。因此，人民币国际化战略路径与框架等相关问题就成为了我们中国宏观经济管理与金融领域里的理论与实务工作者们必须深入研究与探讨的重要课题。本文运用理论和实证分析相结合、历史和逻辑分析相结合、比较分析与归纳总结相结合的研究方法，从国家发展战略的视角，研究人民币国际化目标的实现问题，意在通过分析人民币国际化的发展现状，借鉴其他国际货币国际化的发展路径与经验，探讨人民币国际化战略的实现路径与方法，提供人民币国际化战略实施的设想，并为我国政府进一步完善人民币国际化宏观调控与管理提供政策建议，从而更好地服务人民币国际化战略的顺利推进。本文将经济学的一些经典理论引入到了人民币国际化的实际分析之中，对于人民币国际化进程中的汇率制度、货币政策、开放程度、政府调控等问题进行了系统性地分析与研究；并对美元、日元、欧元等三种主要货币的国际化路径展开全面分析，而且本文十分注重历史分析、理论分析和实证分析方法的综合运用，试图理顺货币国际化与多方面决定因素之间的关系，深入系统地思考主要国际货币理论的框架体系和严谨脉络，笔者以为这些研究对人民币国际化战略的构建与实施具有重要参考价值和现实意义。本文致力于把握国际货币体系改革契机，系统设计人民币国际化战略发展的路径与框架，提出在人民币国际化进程中运用高效的宏观管理模式的建议，以便从金融风险，外汇管理，政策选择，内外部经济矛盾的协调等多个方面为政府部门的宏观调控提供参考，因而，本文的研究具有较强的实践性与操作性。本文共分导论、正文和结论等三大部分，各部分的主要内容包括：第一部分导论。本部分内容主要是阐述本文选题的研究背景和现实意义，对现有货币国际化相关研究成果进行文献综述，介绍研究内容和方法，概括本文研究的创新与不足。第二部分正文。正文部分共分六章内容进行阐述，各章内容分述如下：第一章货币国际化的相关理论。本章主要围绕货币替代理论、蒙代尔的货币理论和三元悖论三部分内容展开。从货币替代理论的含义、相关模型、影响因素等方面阐述了货币替代理论的内容和发展过程。蒙代尔的最优货币区理论和蒙代尔——弗莱明模型，是本文研究分析人民国际化进程中，推进人民币区域化的理论基础，也为三元悖论的发展提供了分析方法。在开放经济背景下，对资本完全自由流动、固定汇率制度和自由货币政策的选择进行了探讨，目的是为本文后续章节的深入研究做好理论准备。第二章人民币国际化进程的现状及其存在的问题。本章主要是通过观察我国在经济转型的新环境下人民币国际化进程中现状，归纳其中存在的突出问题。本章从人民币跨境流动的主要原因和途径对人民币国际化的现状进行分析，特别是对人民币信用、国家实力、外汇储备等几个方面做详细阐述，并根据现有资料对人民币跨境流通的数量进行估算。同时从铸币税收入、汇兑风险、金融市场发展、市场冲击、货币政策自由度、监管等多个角度，对人民币跨境流通的利弊作了深入探讨，进而结合实际数据与案例，如剖析了影响人民币国际化进程的因素，如国家金融政策、离岸市场、金融中心建设规划等，进而对人民币发展环境、挑战与趋势等进行了分析。第三章人民币国际化进程的经济理论分析。本章主要是分析人民币国际化的含义、机理与实现路径。首先，对人民币国际化内涵和形成机理进行阐述，分析了人民币国际化的条件，并详细探讨了经常项目、资本项目自由可兑换与人民币国际化的关系。从市场演进与政府主导两个角度提出了人民币国际化进程中的自然驱动与政策驱动等关键影响因素；概述了人民币国际化的正反效应与主要测度指标。最后，从理论上探讨了人民币战略的主要诱因和实现途径。其中人民币战略测度部分中主要运用实证分析方法，选择了与人民币国际化相关度较高的货币国际化指标（如货币供应量、进出口贸易额、外商直接投资、外汇储备等）进行了定量化的分析。第四章美日欧货币国际化实践的经验及其启示。本章主要是对现有的世界主要国际货币发展过程进行研究，，选取美元、欧元和日元的国际化历程作为案例。以美欧日三种货币国际化过程中的异同作为分析的主要部分。从三种货币国际化的路径研究出发，对其过程中的共同点从经济实力、币值稳定程度、央行信誉、金融市场广度与深度、央行对货币国际化的态度等几个方面做了详细探讨，并从中归纳了三种货币国际化模式的差异。尤其突出日元在国际化进程中的特殊之处。并在此基础上，总结三种货币国际化发展道路中的经验和教训，为我国人民币国际化战略的顺利实施提供有益的启示与借鉴。第五章人民币国际化进程的框架设计与战略构想。本章首先是探讨了人民币国际化一体化与区域化等战略的必要性和可行性；其次是对于人民币国际化战略提出“三步走”的战略思路与结构框架构建问题进行了设计，然后提出了人民币国际化需经历货币一体化和货币区域化的过程，并逐渐过度到国际化的战略构想与思路。本章由整合目前“一国三币”的货币一体化构想开始，并考虑了台币问题及东盟地区货币的合作问题。从经济开放性、产品多样性、要素流动性、金融一体化等多个方面分析了货币一体化的可行性，并就货币整合的具体步骤和策略提出了构想。在实现一体化的基础上向区域化推进，本章同样从多个角度分析了人民币区域化实现的重要性，并对可行性进行了分析，再此基础上设计与构思了人民币区域化战略的策略与框架。第六章完善人民币国际化宏观管理的政策建议。本章主要是针对人民币国际化进程提出宏观管理的设想。内容涉及到关于金融风险测量、金融风险防范、外汇管理、汇率政策选择、内外部经济的矛盾和协调以及政府宏观调控几个方面的具体内容；最后，基于构建起更加完善的人民币国际化的宏观管理模式的目的，为政府相关决策部门推动并实施人民币国际化战略提供了若干政策建议。第三部分结论。结论部分主要是对全文已经进行研究是主要内容和核心观点做出归纳与总结，并对人民币国际化进程中近期将要面临的问题和未来可能的变化做些具有前瞻性的预测与展望。
[Abstract]:Since the 2008 world financial crisis, government leaders, central bank and other financial regulators, financial and economic professionals have reexamined and reconsidered the potential risks of the international monetary system, the necessity of deepening the reform of the financial system and the reasonableness of the existence of the dollar dominated international monetary system. In the last 30 years, with the sustained, rapid, steady growth of China's national economy and the increasing overall national strength, the RMB has gradually stepped out of the country and began to integrate into the world monetary and financial system. At the same time, since 1990s, China's international balance of payments has basically maintained a "double surplus" and the foreign exchange reserves are rising. In order to solve the structural problems in the field of foreign trade and finance, the currency circulation channel between foreign capital and domestic real economy should be set up as soon as possible. Therefore, the central government, on the one hand, explicitly authorizes Hongkong to build it into the "RMB offshore center", the other side. In the 12th Five-Year plan issued by the national development and Reform Commission, the Shanghai international financial center proposed the position of the global RMB center by 2015. Under the current complex and changeable international economic and financial situation, the Chinese government and the financial sector will have to face how to cope with the frequent fluctuations in the exchange rate and how to deal with it. The capital flow of the ball, how to draw on the development path of international currency, how to grasp the current situation of the internationalization of RMB, how to promote the process of internationalization of RMB and how to manage the internationalization of RMB effectively and so on a series of serious challenges, and whether these problems can be effectively solved and will certainly be to China. The economic development and the stability of the financial order have played a decisive role. Therefore, the relevant issues of the strategic path and framework of the internationalization of the RMB have become an important subject for the theoretical and practical workers in the field of macro economic management and finance in China.
This paper combines theory with empirical analysis, combination of historical and logical analysis, comparative analysis and summary of research methods, from the perspective of national development strategy, to study the realization of the goal of RMB internationalization. It is intended to analyze the development of RMB internationalization and draw lessons from the development of international currency internationalization. Path and experience, explore the ways and means to realize the internationalization strategy of RMB, provide the idea of the implementation of the internationalization strategy of RMB, and provide policy suggestions for our government to further improve the macro regulation and management of RMB internationalization, so as to better serve the smooth progress of the internationalization strategy of RMB. The canonical theory is introduced into the actual analysis of the internationalization of RMB. It systematically analyzes and studies the exchange rate system, monetary policy, openness and government regulation in the process of RMB internationalization, and analyzes the internationalization path of the three main currencies, such as the dollar, yen, and euro, and this article is very important. Pay attention to the comprehensive application of historical analysis, theoretical analysis and empirical analysis methods, try to straighten out the relationship between currency internationalization and many factors, and deeply and systematically consider the framework and rigorous context of the main international monetary theory. I think these studies have an important reference for the construction and implementation of the internationalization strategy of RMB. This article is devoted to grasp the opportunity of the reform of the international monetary system and systematically design the path and frame of the development of the RMB internationalization strategy, and put forward some suggestions on the use of the efficient macro management mode in the process of RMB internationalization, so as to make the financial risk, foreign exchange management, policy choice, and coordination of internal and external economic contradictions and so on. One aspect is to provide reference for the macro regulation and control of government departments. Therefore, the research in this paper has strong practicality and operability.
This article is divided into three parts: introduction, main body and conclusion.
The first part is the introduction. This part is mainly about the research background and practical significance of this topic, the literature review of the existing research achievements on the current currency internationalization, the introduction of the research content and methods, and the innovation and deficiency of this study.
The second part is the body. The main body is divided into six chapters. The contents of each chapter are as follows:
The first chapter is related to the theory of currency internationalization. This chapter mainly focuses on the currency substitution theory, Mundell's monetary theory and the three element paradox in three parts. It expounds the content and development process of the currency substitution theory from the meaning of the currency substitution theory, the related models and the influencing factors. The theory of Mundell's optimal currency area and the Mongol generation are discussed. The Fleming model is the theoretical basis for the analysis of the internationalization of the people in the process of the people's internationalization. It also provides an analytical method for the development of the three yuan paradox. Under the open economy, the complete free flow of capital, the fixed exchange rate system and the choice of free currency policy are discussed. The purpose is to be the following. The further study of the continued chapter is ready for theoretical preparation.
The second chapter is the current situation and existing problems of the process of RMB internationalization. This chapter mainly analyzes the current situation in the process of RMB internationalization under the new environment of economic transformation. This chapter analyzes the current situation of RMB internationalization from the main reasons and ways of the cross-border flow of RMB, especially the current situation of RMB internationalization. It describes the RMB credit, national strength, foreign exchange reserve and other aspects, and estimates the number of cross-border circulation of RMB in accordance with the existing data. At the same time, the advantages and disadvantages of RMB's cross-border circulation are made from several angles, such as seigniorage income, exchange risk, financial market development, market impact, monetary policy freedom, supervision and so on. In-depth discussion, and then combined with actual data and cases, such as the analysis of factors affecting the process of RMB internationalization, such as the national financial policy, offshore market, financial center construction planning, and then the development of the RMB environment, the challenge and trend of the analysis of the trend.
The third chapter is the economic theory analysis of the internationalization process of RMB. This chapter mainly analyzes the meaning, mechanism and realization path of RMB internationalization. First, it expounds the connotation and formation mechanism of RMB internationalization, analyzes the conditions of the internationalization of RMB, and discusses in detail the regular items, the free convertible of capital account and the RMB country. From the two angles of market evolution and government leadership, the key factors such as natural driving and policy driving in the process of RMB internationalization are proposed, and the positive and negative effects and main measure indexes of RMB internationalization are summarized. Finally, the main inducements and ways of realizing the strategy of RMB war are discussed theoretically. In the part of the currency strategy measure, the main use of the empirical analysis method is to choose the quantitative analysis of the currency internationalization index (such as money supply, import and export trade volume, foreign direct investment, foreign exchange reserve, etc.) which have high correlation with the internationalization of RMB.
The fourth chapter is the experience and Enlightenment of the international practice of American and Japanese currency internationalization. This chapter mainly studies the development process of the main international currency in the world and selects the internationalization of the dollar, the euro and the yen as a case. The main part of the analysis is the similarities and differences between the three currencies in the United States and Europe and the internationalization of the three currencies. On the basis of the study of the path, the common points in the process are discussed in detail from the economic strength, the stability of the currency value, the reputation of the central bank, the breadth and depth of the financial market, the attitude of the central bank to the internationalization of money, and the differences between the three modes of internationalization of the currency. On the basis of this, we summarize the experiences and lessons of the three ways of internationalization of currency development, and provide useful inspiration and reference for the smooth implementation of the internationalization strategy of China's RMB.
The fifth chapter is the framework design and strategic conception of the process of RMB internationalization. This chapter first discusses the necessity and feasibility of the integration and regionalization of RMB internationalization. Secondly, it designs the strategic thinking and structural framework of the "three step" strategy for RMB internationalization strategy, and then puts forward the people. This chapter begins with the integration of the current "one country and three currency" concept of currency integration, and considers the problem of Taiwan currency and the cooperation of the ASEAN currency. From the economic openness, product diversity and element flow The feasibility of currency integration is analyzed in many aspects, such as sex and financial integration, and the concrete steps and Strategies of monetary integration are put forward. The importance of the regionalization of RMB is analyzed from several angles, and the feasibility is analyzed. The strategy and framework of RMB regionalization strategy are designed and conceived.
The sixth chapter consummates the policy suggestions for the macro management of RMB internationalization. This chapter is mainly about the assumption of macro management for the process of RMB internationalization. It involves the measures of financial risk measurement, financial risk prevention, foreign exchange management, exchange rate policy selection, the shield and coordination of the internal and external economy, and the macro regulation and control of the government. In the end, based on the purpose of building a more perfect macro management model for RMB internationalization, some policy suggestions are provided for the government's relevant decision-making departments to promote and implement the strategy of RMB internationalization.
The conclusion of the third part is to conclude and summarize the main contents and core views of the full text, and make some forward-looking forecasts and prospects for the problems and possible future changes that will be faced in the process of RMB internationalization.
【学位授予单位】：中共中央党校
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F822;F832.6;F224

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