利率市场化下城商行发展策略研究

发布时间：2018-06-15 15:40

本文选题：利率市场化 + 城商行　；参考：《西南财经大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：利率是现代经济和金融的核心,它的走势变化可以左右整个金融市场,对经济生活有着十分重要的影响。麦金农和肖的“金融抑制论”和“金融深化论”主张放开利率管制,将利率交由资金市场供需来决定,抵消利率管制给经济发展带来的负面影响。在这个理论引导下,众多国家通过实行利率市场化在国民经济发展上取得了不错的成就。自1978年改革开放以来,我国社会主义市场经济体制基本形成,但资金价格——利率仍没有完全放开。而随着金融的发展,利率市场化是大势所趋。从1996年放开银行间拆借利率以来,我国渐进式利率市场化改革已走过十七个年头。2008年后,因全球金融危机爆发,我国利率市场化改革出现暂时的停滞。2012年,我国利率市场化进程明显加速,人民银行两次非对称降息,并放开存贷款利率浮动空间。“十二五”期间,我国利率市场化将进入全速推进时期,并有可能出现完全意义上的利率市场化。随着我国利率市场化改革的进一步推进,我国的利率水平将更具有弹性和灵活性,将不可避免地对以利差收入为主的商业银行产生巨大的影响,而城商行的净利息收入占总业务收入比重更是处于我国银行界前列。因此,利率市场化下,城商行将面临更直接更激烈的冲击。虽然近几年,城商行发展迅速,在经营模式、组织架构、风险防控、营销管理等方面有长足的进步,但与其他大型银行相比,很多方面仍处于竞争劣势当中。因此,数量庞大的城商行如何在利率市场化背景下实现跨越式发展成为我国银行界亟待解决的问题。城商行因为其历史沿留问题,整体经营水平不高。利率市场化后,相对于大型银行,城商行由于在机构网点、业务规模、技术创新等方面并不存在优势,在与其他银行进行竞争时只能直接采取价格竞争策略,成本压力急剧上升。同时,利率市场化要求城商行针对不同客户采取差异化风险定阶策略,这需要城商行必须具备较强的信用风险管理能力。而与大型银行相比,大部分城商行缺乏自主定价能力和相关的量化模型和数据分析经验,暂且做不到成功的差异化定价。总而言之,利率市场化改革必然会对我国城市商业银行经营管理造成重大影响。因此,本文以城商行发展特点作为切入点,分别采用理论分析与实证分析、定性分析与定量分析相结合的方法,结合香港地区利率市场化成功经验和利率敏感性缺口管理方法,对利率市场化下我国城商行主要面临的机遇和挑战进行分析,探讨其未来发展中存在的问题和缺陷。最后针对城商行发展现状提出相关对策和建议,具有较为深远的现实意义。全文结构安排如下：第一部分为导论,该部分包括五个问题：研究背景和意义；相关文献综述；论文研究方法；论文结构和思路；论文的创新点和存在的不足。第二部分首先对利率市场化的内涵进行了阐述,并结合我国具体情况分析利率市场化改革对我国的特殊意义。其次回顾了我国利率市场化改革的历史进程。最后,在前面的基础上,对我国利率市场化的改革提出了展望。第三部分开篇将我国城商行的发展历史从时间段上分为艰难起步、努力调整和快速发展三个阶段进行了分析,并从资产增速、混业化经营、特色经营、理财业务和私人银行五个方面对城商行的发展现状进行了综述。第四部分主要分析利率市场化给城商行所带来的影响。首先,文章针对城商行业务发展特点,主要从差异化经营、定价机制调整、信贷市场份额三个方面论述了利率市场化为我国城商行带来的机遇。然后,从盈利模式、风险管理能力、自主定价能力三个方面详细论述了城商行在利率市场化下所面临的挑战。其中,文章重点从定性和定量两个方面对我国城商行在利率市场化下面临的利率风险进行了分析。首先从定性角度将利率风险分为阶段性利率风险和恒久性利率风险,其中,对恒久性利率风险的分析又从重新定价风险、基准利率风险、收益率曲线风险、期权风险四个角度进行阐述。其次,文章选取了七个城商行作为样本行,利用利率敏感性缺口和压力测试对样本行的利率风险和利率风险管理能力进行了实证分析。而在压力测试分析样本行利率风险中,又根据存贷款利率幅度调整是否一致分为两种情况进行比较分析。最后,结合城商行发展现状,对利率市场化给城商行带来的其他类型风险进行了一个概括。第五部分是本文核心部分,从多角度对利率市场化进程中城商行应如何稳健发展这一问题进行了详细回答。具体可以从传统利差业务向中间业务转型、差异化战略定位、完善定价机制、加强营销管理、降低运营成本、实行全面风险管理等诸多方面做文章。在业务转型方面,城商行可以花大力气培养中间业务和零售业务,带来新的利润增长点。在与大型银行就业务市场份额争夺来看,城商行应发挥其地缘和人缘优势,立足本地,发展本土化、特色化金融产品,填补大型银行定位上的空缺。差异化战略定位则要求城商行根据自身特点,选择适合自身发展的战略方向。城商行从刚诞生开始,就处于银行业竞争中的弱势地位,并不适合与大型银行在其拥有既得优势的业务上正面较量。反而,应投入足够的资源另辟蹊径,形成自己特有的业务优势和品牌效应。另一方面,利率市场化下银行同业竞争将更多地转向价格上的竞争,因此要求城商行须具备与其相匹配的风险定价能力,特别是贷款定价能力。现阶段,城商行对于客户的定价通常先取决于行业,而非个别客户的风险状况。而科学的风险定价机制有针对各类客户市场的专门业务模式,制定高度差异化的定价类别。与此同时,利率市场化给城商行带来的不仅有传统意义上的利率风险,还有流动性风险、信用风险等各种风险。因此,城商行应在全行范围内增强风险意识,建立覆盖市场风险、信用风险、操作风险的全面风险管理模式。而对于最为突出的利率风险,城商行应提高缺口管理水平,改善资产负债失衡状况并建立多层次利率风险管理体系。另外,对于小型城商行而言,引进战略投资者可以在短期内弥补其产品稀少的缺点,提高其市场竞争力。而加强营销管理和减少运营成本则使得城商行避免进入“大而全”的粗放型发展模式,而以精细化的发展策略来应对利率市场化所带来的不利影响,不被市场所抛弃。文章主要贡献是目前国内文献大多数基于银行业整体的角度来分析利率市场化对商业银行的影响及就对策略,未将城商行和大型商业银行有效区分开来,针对性地研究。本文总结归纳城商行自身发展特点,以此为突破口,深入分析利率市场化进程中城商行受到的风险与冲击,并针对城商行发展现状提出相应的应对策略。此外,文章借助最新的银行报表数据从利率敏感性比率指标论证了城商行在利率市场化进程中面临的利率风险情况,并在压力测试方法中就存贷款利率调整幅度分为一致性和非一致性两种情景,以求能全面测量城商行所面临的利率风险。本文在以下方面仍存在不足：首先,我国城商行数量高达一百多家,每家城商行的发展阶段、规模等各不相同,具有较大的差异性。本文只能尝试性在城商行群体共性的基础上对本文进行了分析叙述,并没有对此进行深入和细化,所以从整体而言研究分析方面都比较笼统,缺乏针对性；其次,本文主要从各城商行年报中获取数据,因为许多城商行只在近几年开始对外公布数据,且为了对本行经营管理数据的保密,所以数据上存在一些缺失导致实证部分做得不够深入和粗糙；最后,鉴于作者的知识结构和相关实务经验的缺乏,对于文中一些利率风险和城商行业务的分析不够深入和全面,需要进一步的改进。
[Abstract]:Interest rate is the core of modern economy and finance. The change of its trend can affect the whole financial market, and it has a very important influence on the economic life. Mackinnon and Shaw's "financial restraint theory" and "financial deepening theory" advocate liberalizing interest rate control, deciding interest rate to the supply and demand of capital market, counteracting the interest rate control to the Economic Development Zone The negative influence. In this theory under the guidance of many countries through the implementation of the marketization of interest rate in the national economic development has made great achievements.
Since the reform and opening up in 1978, our socialist market economic system has basically formed, but the price of funds has not been completely liberalized. With the development of finance, interest rate marketization is the trend of the times. Since the opening of inter-bank lending rate in 1996, the reform of China's gradual rate market reform has gone through seventeen years after.2008 years, Because of the outbreak of the global financial crisis, the reform of interest rate marketization in China has been temporarily stagnant in.2012 years, the process of interest rate marketization in China has accelerated obviously. The two times of the people's Bank of China is asymmetrical, and the interest rate floating space is open. In 12th Five-Year, China's interest rate marketization will enter the period of full speed, and it may have full significance. The interest rate market.
With the further promotion of China's interest rate marketization reform, China's interest rate level will be more flexible and flexible, and will inevitably have a great impact on commercial banks, which are mainly profit margin, and the net interest income of the commercial banks is in the forefront of the total business income in our country. Therefore, the interest rate is marketed. The city business bank will face a more direct and more intense impact. Although the city commercial bank has developed rapidly in recent years, it has made considerable progress in the management mode, organization structure, risk prevention and control, marketing management and so on, but compared with other large banks, many aspects are still in the competitive disadvantage. To achieve leapfrog development of China's banking sector has become the problem to be solved.
The city commercial bank has not high overall management level because of its historical retention problem. After the interest rate marketization, the city commercial bank has no advantage in the aspects of the institutional network, the business scale, the technological innovation and so on. It can only take the price competition strategy directly when competing with other banks, and the cost pressure rises sharply. At the same time, the interest rate market It requires the city firm to adopt a differential risk order strategy for different customers, which requires a strong credit risk management ability of the city firm. Compared with the large banks, most of the city firms lack the independent pricing ability and related quantitative model and data analysis experience, and do not make a successful differential pricing for the time being.
In a word, the reform of the interest rate marketization will inevitably have a significant impact on the management and management of the urban commercial banks in China. Therefore, this paper takes the development characteristics of the city commercial bank as a breakthrough point, using theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, combining the successful experience of interest rate marketization and interest rate sensitivity in Hongkong region. The method of perceptual gap management is to analyze the main opportunities and challenges faced by the commercial banks of China under the market-oriented interest rate, and to discuss the problems and defects in the future development. Finally, the relevant countermeasures and suggestions for the development of city commercial banks are put forward, which have far-reaching practical significance.
The main contents are as follows:
The first part is the introduction, which includes five questions: the research background and significance; related literature review; the research method of the paper; the structure and thought of the paper; the innovation and deficiency of the paper.
The second part first expounds the connotation of the interest rate marketization, and analyzes the special significance of the interest rate marketization reform in our country. Secondly, it reviews the historical process of the reform of the interest rate marketization in China. Finally, on the basis of the preceding, it puts forward the prospect of the reform of the interest rate marketization in China.
The third part divides the development history of the Chinese city business from the time section into a difficult start, and analyzes the three stages of the effort adjustment and rapid development, and summarizes the development of the city business from five aspects: the growth of the assets, the mixed operation, the characteristic management, the financial business and the private bank.
The fourth part mainly analyzes the influence of the interest rate marketization to the city commercial bank. Firstly, the article aims at the characteristics of the business development of the city commercial bank, mainly from the differential operation, the adjustment of the pricing mechanism, and the credit market share in three aspects, the interest rate marketization is brought to the Commercial Bank of our city. Then, from the profit model, the risk management ability and autonomy. The three aspects of pricing ability are discussed in detail, which are faced by the commercial banks in the interest rate marketization. In this paper, the interest rate risk is analyzed from two aspects of the qualitative and quantitative aspects. First, the interest rate risk is divided into stage interest risk and permanent interest rate wind from the qualitative point of view. In the analysis of the permanent interest rate risk, the analysis of the interest rate risk is from four angles: the pricing risk, the benchmark interest rate risk, the yield curve risk and the option risk. Secondly, the article selects seven cities as the sample line, and uses the interest rate sensitivity gap and the pressure test to test the interest rate risk and the interest rate risk management ability of the sample bank. The empirical analysis is carried out, and in the analysis of the risk of the rate of interest rate in the sample of the pressure test, it is compared and analyzed in two cases according to whether the interest rate adjustment of the deposit and loan rate is unanimous. Finally, combined with the development status of the city commercial bank, the other types of risks brought by the interest rate marketization to the commercial banks are summarized.
The fifth part is the core part of this paper. From many angles, it gives a detailed answer to the problem of how the commercial banks should develop steadily in the process of interest rate marketization, which can be transformed from the traditional service to the intermediate business, the positioning of the differential strategy, the improvement of the pricing mechanism, the strengthening of the marketing management, the reduction of the operation cost and the implementation of the comprehensive risk management. In terms of business transformation, the city business bank can make great efforts to cultivate intermediate and retail business and bring new profit growth points. In view of the competition with large banks on business market share, the city business bank should give full play to its geopolitical and human advantages, based on local, localization, characteristic financial products, and filling large banks. The difference strategy orientation requires the city firm to choose the strategic direction suitable for its own development according to its own characteristics. The city business bank is in a weak position in the banking competition from the beginning of its birth. It is not suitable for a large bank to compete positively in the business with its own advantages. Instead, it should invest enough resources. On the other hand, on the other hand, the interbank competition under the interest rate marketization will turn more to the price competition, so the city firm must have the ability to match the risk pricing, especially the loan pricing ability. The risk pricing mechanism of a scientific risk pricing mechanism has a highly differentiated pricing category for various customer markets. At the same time, the interest rate marketization brings not only the interest rate risk, but also the liquidity risk, the credit risk, and other risks caused by the interest rate marketization to the city commercial bank. Therefore, the city commercial banks should strengthen the risk awareness and establish a comprehensive risk management model covering market risk, credit risk and operational risk. For the most prominent interest rate risk, the city commercial bank should improve the level of the gap management, improve the balance of balance of assets and liabilities and establish a multi-level interest rate risk management system. In addition, the small scale of interest rate risk management system should be built. In the case of city business, the introduction of strategic investors can make up for the shortcoming of their scarce products in the short term and improve their market competitiveness, while strengthening marketing management and reducing operating costs makes them avoid entering the "large and full" extensive development model, and deal with the adverse effects of interest rate marketization with a fine development strategy. Loud, don't be abandoned by the market.
The main contribution of this article is to analyze the impact of interest rate marketization on commercial banks based on the overall view of banking industry at present. In the process of marketization, the risk and impact of city commercial banks are put forward, and the corresponding countermeasures are put forward in view of the development status of city commercial banks. In addition, the article demonstrates the interest rate risk in the process of interest rate marketization with the use of the latest bank statement data from the rate sensitive ratio index, and saves and loans in the pressure testing method. The interest rate adjustment is divided into two scenarios of consistency and inconsistency, in order to complete measurement of city commercial banks face interest rate risk.
In the following aspects, there are still shortcomings in the following aspects: first, the number of Chinese city commercial banks is up to more than 100, and the development stage of each city business bank is different and different in scale. This article can only try to analyze and describe this article on the basis of the general commonness of the city business bank, and do not further and refine this. As a whole, the research and analysis are relatively general and lack of pertinence. Secondly, this paper mainly obtains data from the annual reports of the cities, because many city firms have only published data in recent years, and in order to keep the management data of the bank confidential, the data are missing in the empirical part. In the end, in view of the lack of the author's knowledge structure and relevant practical experience, the analysis of some interest rate risks and the business of the city business is not thorough and comprehensive, and further improvement is needed.
【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.33

【参考文献】