三元悖论困扰下的中国资本流动和货币政策

发布时间：2018-06-15 17:35

本文选题：三元悖论 + 资本流动　；参考：《当代财经》2011年07期

【摘要】：中国正面临越来越大的"三元悖论"困扰,即在维持有限的汇率制度弹性以及货币政策自主性的同时,持续面临着大规模的国际资本流入。实证研究发现,在面临大规模的外汇资本积累后,央行的外汇冲销水平在2006年第3季度后下降了,但总体上看,中国货币供应还存在一定的自主性。由于外汇冲销存在一定成本,央行应提高成本较低的回购操作比重,降低成本较高的央行票据操作比重。考虑到"十二五"规划已经制定了扩大内需战略,来自经常项目盈余的外汇流入会持续下降,中国对外国直接投资进行了有针对性地控制和引导,限制热钱流入应该是中国今后应对外汇资本流入的重点。而只有人民币成为国际信贷货币,才能从根本上消除外汇积累的货币效应以及货币错配风险。
[Abstract]:China is facing more and more problems of "ternary paradox", that is, while maintaining limited exchange rate regime flexibility and monetary policy autonomy, China continues to face large-scale international capital inflow. The empirical study found that after the massive accumulation of foreign exchange capital the central bank's foreign exchange sterilisation level declined after the third quarter of 2006 but on the whole China's money supply still has some autonomy. Because there is a certain cost of sterilizing foreign exchange, the central bank should increase the proportion of repurchase operation with lower cost and reduce the proportion of central bank paper operation with higher cost. Considering that the 12th Five-Year Plan has formulated a strategy for expanding domestic demand and that foreign exchange inflows from the current account surplus will continue to decline, China has targeted and directed foreign direct investment. Restricting hot money inflows should be China's focus on foreign exchange capital inflows in the future. Only when RMB becomes an international credit currency can the currency effect of foreign exchange accumulation and currency mismatch risk be eliminated.
【作者单位】：外交学院国际经济学院;
【基金】：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(10YJC790088)
【分类号】：F832.6;F822.0

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