我国货币流通速度的影响因素及其变化趋势研究

发布时间：2018-06-19 02:07

本文选题：货币流通速度 + McCallum规则　；参考：《首都经济贸易大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着货币理论的充实和完善,对于货币流通速度的研究也从原先大部分假设其是一个稳定的常数,变为受到各种经济因素影响的变量,特别是近些年货币的流通速度日益成为经济问题和政策问题的热点。国外经济学家对货币流通速度很早就进行了研究,除了假定其是一个稳定常数的学说外,还有一些对其影响因素进行了系统的分析,建立了货币流通速度方程;而我国对货币流通速度的研究起步较晚,大部分以市场因素和制度因素对其进行了切合我国的解析。本文发展了多因素的Mc Callum规则方程式,建立货币流通速度增长率与预期国民收入增长率、上期国民收入缺口率、通货膨胀率、货币计量的金融资产增长率、货币数量增长率之间的关系,得出了在其他条件不变的情况下,预期国民收入增长率、上期国民收入缺口率、货币计量的金融资产增长率、通货膨胀率与我国货币流通速度增长率是正相关关系,而货币数量增长率与我国货币流通速度增长率是负相关关系。并且用我国的数据进行统计分析,通过回归和格兰杰因果检验证明该方程符合我国实际经济运行情况,同时预测我国货币流通速度在未来几年会不断下降。然后,本文通过对比美国、英国和日本三个主要发达经济体五十年来的货币流通速度数据发现,这三个发达经济体的货币流通速度也是一直递减的,只是各自有不同的幅度。并且其中美国的货币流通速度变化最平稳,是由于其经济相对更加稳定,货币政策更为成熟,对世界经济的影响更大所致;英国的货币流通速度变化最陡峭,是由于其经济受到二战以来政治军事环境影响较大所致;日本的货币流通速度变化幅度在美国和英国之间,是由于其经济受到美国的影响很大且近几十年发展较为稳定所致。最后,结合理论和实证分析的结果,面对我国近期经济下行压力比较大,提出要结合货币政策调控、稳定国内金融秩序、合理制定通货膨胀目标的方式,以使我国的经济可以更好更平稳的发展;也说明我国目前经济领域存在的许多挑战和机会:一方面经济下行压力巨大,企业运行成本高企,与传统能源和建材相关的行业产能过剩、员工开支难,部分地方政府财政吃紧;一方面随着改革开放的不断深入,我国经济市场化程度提高,资源配置效率显著提高,经济结构转型进入攻坚期。所以在这个关键期,我国经济的政策施行更应该审慎,特别是随着我国金融和资本领域的开放,国内经济金融环境受到国际经济金融的影响增加,更需要一个长期的经济金融政策稳定国家和人们的预期,以灵活的短期政策使得我国经济增长和金融资产价格保持在一个合理的波动区间内。
[Abstract]:With the enrichment and perfection of the monetary theory, the research on the velocity of money circulation has changed from most of the assumptions that it is a stable constant to a variable influenced by various economic factors. Especially in recent years, the speed of money circulation has become a hot spot of economic and policy issues. Foreign economists have studied the velocity of money circulation for a long time. In addition to the theory that it is a constant of stability, some influential factors have been systematically analyzed, and the velocity equation of currency circulation has been established. However, the study on the velocity of currency circulation in China started late, and most of them were analyzed in terms of market factors and institutional factors. In this paper, we develop the Mc Callum rule equation of multiple factors, and establish the growth rate of monetary velocity and expected national income, the gap rate of national income in the last period, the inflation rate, the growth rate of financial assets measured by money. The relationship between the growth rate of monetary quantity, the expected growth rate of national income, the gap rate of national income in the previous period, the growth rate of financial assets measured by money under other conditions unchanged, There is a positive correlation between the inflation rate and the growth rate of the velocity of monetary circulation in China, but a negative correlation between the growth rate of the quantity of money and the growth rate of the velocity of monetary circulation in China. Through regression and Granger causality test, it is proved that the equation accords with the actual economic situation of our country, and the velocity of currency circulation in our country will continue to decline in the next few years. Then, by comparing the monetary velocity data of the three major developed economies of the United States, Britain and Japan over the past 50 years, we find that the velocity of money circulation in these three developed economies has been decreasing, but with different ranges. Among them, the most stable change in the speed of money circulation in the United States is due to the fact that its economy is relatively more stable, its monetary policy is more mature and has a greater impact on the world economy. The British currency has the steepest change in the speed of circulation. The reason is that its economy has been greatly influenced by the political and military environment since World War II, and that the speed of money circulation of Japan is between the United States and Britain, because its economy is greatly influenced by the United States and has developed steadily in recent decades. Finally, combined with the results of theoretical and empirical analysis, in the face of the relatively large downward pressure on our economy in the near future, we put forward ways to stabilize domestic financial order and rationally formulate inflation targets in combination with monetary policy regulation and control. In order to enable our economy to develop better and more smoothly, it also shows that there are many challenges and opportunities in the current economic field of our country: on the one hand, there is a huge downward pressure on the economy, and the operating costs of enterprises are high. The industries related to traditional energy and building materials are overcapacity, staff expenditure is difficult, and some local governments are in financial strait.On the one hand, with the deepening of reform and opening up, the degree of marketization of our economy has increased, and the efficiency of resource allocation has increased significantly. The transformation of economic structure has entered a critical period. Therefore, in this critical period, the implementation of our economic policies should be more prudent, especially with the opening up of the financial and capital fields of our country, and the domestic economic and financial environment has been affected by international economic and financial growth. It also needs a long-term economic and financial policy to stabilize the country and people's expectations, flexible short-term policies to keep our economic growth and financial asset prices in a reasonable range of fluctuations.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F822.2

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