人民币资本项目可交换下的风险研究

发布时间：2018-06-21 13:08

本文选题：资本项目开放 + 因子分析　；参考：《首都经济贸易大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着经济全球化和金融一体化的发展，各国纷纷放松金融管制和资本管制，中国也在积极实行金融自由化和金融全球化战略。在“十一五”规划中，我国政府首次提出探索逐步实现资本项目可兑换，在“十二五”规划中明确提出“放宽跨境资本交易限制，逐步实现人民币资本项目可交换”。推进资本项目可兑换，是中国经济发展的必然，是人民币国际地位提高的必然要求。然而，资本项目可兑换使得跨境资本流动更为频繁、快捷，各种因素都可能引起资本的大规模流入流出，对一国原有的各项经济制度的内在脆弱性造成强烈冲击，从而放大宏观经济的脆弱性和加重经济问题的严重性。因此有必要对人民币资本项目可交换进程中可能出现的各种风险进行系统的分析。本文从理论和实际的角度出发，，详细总结了人民币资本项目开放进程中面临的各项风险。通过计量经济模型来分析汇率制度选择对资本账户可兑换的影响。在此基础上，结合中国资本项目开放的客观状况，通过因子分析的方法综合出金融风险的主要因子，将风险管理措施的提出纳入到风险分析中，从而提出科学、有限的金融风险管理方案。
[Abstract]:With the development of economic globalization and financial integration, various countries have relaxed financial and capital controls, and China is also actively implementing the strategy of financial liberalization and financial globalization. In the "11th Five-Year Plan", the Chinese government for the first time proposed to explore the gradual realization of capital account convertibility, in the "12th Five-Year Plan" clearly proposed that "relax the restrictions on cross-border capital transactions, gradually realize the RMB capital account exchangeable." The promotion of capital account convertibility is the necessity of China's economic development and the inevitable requirement of improving the international status of RMB. However, capital account convertibility makes cross-border capital flows more frequent and faster, and various factors may lead to large-scale capital inflows and outflows, which have a strong impact on the inherent fragility of a country's original economic systems. Thus amplify the fragility of the macro-economy and aggravate the seriousness of the economic problems. Therefore, it is necessary to systematically analyze the risks that may occur in the process of RMB capital account exchangeability. In this paper, the risks in the process of opening RMB capital account are summarized theoretically and practically. The influence of exchange rate regime selection on capital account convertibility is analyzed by econometric model. On this basis, combined with the objective situation of capital account opening in China, the main factors of financial risk are synthesized by the method of factor analysis, and the risk management measures are put forward into the risk analysis. Limited financial risk management program.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.6

【引证文献】