中国超额货币问题实证分析

发布时间：2018-06-24 09:54

本文选题：超额货币 + 经济增长　；参考：《天津财经大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来,中国整个经济金融领域产生了一系列重大的变化,其中,货币供应量、经济增长率、通货膨胀率之间出现了一种令人困扰的现象--我国以货币M2衡量的货币增长速度长期超过经济增长速度与通货膨胀率之和。超过经济增长所需的货币供应的存在,及其对传统货币数量论针对货币、产出、物价三者之间关系描述的违背,论文称之为“超额货币”问题。基于此,论文在综合考虑各种因素的基础上加以修正传统货币数量论方程,深入分析超额货币供给相关经济现象,探讨其对经济和金融体系的影响。主要思路为：首先,对迄今为止对“超额货币”问题的有关研究进行了详细的整理,并分析了相关理论假设解释的内容。然后,对中国的超额货币现象结合经济学理论展开讨论。分别从中国经济货币化、居民储蓄行为、国家货币的内生性、地方经济竞争四个方面的经济现象出发,分析中国过高的M2/GDP比率、中国居民预防性储蓄动机、国家隐性补贴、地方货币发行权分散等问题,得出超额货币现象在我国经济现实中是客观存在着的结论。对于我国超额货币程度的测量,大多数学者仍采用基于货币交易方程式的测量方法,但货币交易方程式中货币流通速度不变的假定在现今中国的经济发展现状下已不再适用。基于此,论文采用国外普遍采用的“货币滞存”法对中国1991年-2011年的超额货币程度进行了重新的测算,并以此为基础实证检验我国超额货币程度对经济增长和物价水平的影响。结果发现：超额货币对我国的经济增长和物价水平有着较为明显的影响,在短期内超额货币对经济增长有促进作用,而长期内对经济的增长有一定的阻碍作用；超额货币对我国的物价水平的影响是正向的且深远而持久。文章最后针对上述经济现象分析和实证检验结果,提出制定更加灵活和有针对性的货币政策、推动资本市场有效发展、真正推进利率市场化和金融区域化的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, a series of major changes have taken place in the whole economic and financial field of China. Among them, money supply, economic growth rate, There is a disturbing phenomenon between the inflation rate that the monetary growth rate measured by the money M2 in our country is longer than the sum of the economic growth rate and the inflation rate for a long time. The existence of money supply which exceeds the economic growth and the violation of the description of the relationship among money, output and price in the traditional quantitative theory of money is called "excess money" in this paper. Based on this, the paper modifies the traditional monetary quantitative equation on the basis of comprehensive consideration of various factors, deeply analyzes the economic phenomena related to the excess money supply, and probes into its influence on the economic and financial system. The main ideas are as follows: first of all, this paper makes a detailed arrangement of the researches on "excess currency" so far, and analyzes the contents of the theoretical hypotheses. Then, the phenomenon of excess money in China is discussed in combination with economic theory. Starting from the economic phenomena of China's economic monetization, residents' saving behavior, the endogenous nature of the national currency, and local economic competition, respectively, this paper analyzes China's excessive M _ 2 / GDP ratio, the Chinese residents' precautionary savings motive, and the state's implicit subsidies. This paper draws the conclusion that the phenomenon of excess money exists objectively in the economic reality of our country. For the measurement of the degree of excess money in China, most scholars still use the method based on the currency trading equation, but the assumption of the constant velocity of currency circulation in the currency trading equation is no longer applicable in the present economic development of China. Based on this, the paper remeasures the degree of excess money in China from 1991 to 2011 by using the "money stagnation" method which is widely used abroad, and empirically tests the influence of excess monetary degree on economic growth and price level. The results show that the excess currency has obvious influence on the economic growth and the price level of our country. In the short term, the excess currency can promote the economic growth, but in the long run it will hinder the economic growth to some extent. The influence of excess money on the price level of our country is positive, profound and lasting. Finally, according to the above economic phenomenon analysis and empirical test results, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions to formulate more flexible and targeted monetary policy, to promote the effective development of capital market, and to promote the marketization of interest rate and financial regionalization.
【学位授予单位】：天津财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F822.2

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