人民币汇率变动对中国国际收支影响的实证分析

发布时间：2018-06-25 11:45

本文选题：人民币汇率 + 贸易收支　；参考：《上海师范大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：2001年底中国加入WTO以来，进出口贸易额和贸易顺差呈现逐步加速上升的趋势。经常项目和资本项目双顺差使中国国际收支顺差大幅增长，外汇储备迅速增长，人民币升值的压力越来越大。2008年金融危机更使之成为世界经济和国际政治的热门话题。为缓解压力，2005年7月中国政府决定上调人民币币值，，并进行汇率形成机制改革，人民币对美元的实际有效汇率上升。但与此同时中国国际收支顺差的增长，并没有得到有效的遏制，依然从2005年的900亿美元一路飙升至2012年的2311亿美元，因此，探究人民币汇率变化对国际收支的影响具有重要的现实意义。在经典国际收支理论中，汇率是决定国际收支的重要变量。但是两者之间到底存在一种什么样的关系，汇率对国际收支到底有什么样的影响，需要通过实证分析来说明。本文运用协整和格兰杰因果检验分析国际收支和汇率是否存在稳定的均衡关系。文章在国内外研究的基础上，从人民币汇率变动对中国国际收支中的贸易收支和资本流动状况两方面的影响，来分析人民币汇率变动对中国国际收支状况的影响。结果显示：人民币汇率变动对贸易差额存在一定程度的滞后影响，人民币汇率变动对于长期资本和短期资本的流入也均具有影响。为避免大幅升值对中国经济发展速度和国内经济结构产生严重负面影响与缓解国外的政治经济压力、保持中国国际资本流动的稳定，人民币可选择保持低幅稳定增长。同时，采取灵活的货币政策和推行扩张性的财政政策以降低储蓄刺激消费，以扩大对外贸易与外国资本投资对中国经济的正面影响。
[Abstract]:Since China's entry into WTO at the end of 2001, China's import and export trade volume and trade surplus have gradually accelerated up. The current account and capital account surplus have made China's balance of payments surplus increase dramatically, foreign exchange reserves are growing rapidly, and the pressure of RMB appreciation is increasing. The 2008 financial crisis has made it a hot topic in the world economy and international politics. In order to alleviate the pressure, the Chinese government decided to raise the value of the RMB in July 2005, and carried out the reform of the exchange rate formation mechanism, and the real effective exchange rate of the RMB rose against the US dollar. At the same time, however, the growth of China's balance of payments surplus has not been effectively curbed, rising from $90 billion in 2005 to $231.1 billion in 2012, so, It is of great practical significance to explore the impact of RMB exchange rate change on balance of payments. In the classical balance of payments theory, exchange rate is an important variable to determine the balance of payments. However, what kind of relationship exists between the two and what kind of influence exchange rate has on the balance of payments should be explained by empirical analysis. This paper uses cointegration and Granger causality test to analyze whether the balance of payments and exchange rate exist stable equilibrium. Based on the research at home and abroad, this paper analyzes the impact of RMB exchange rate change on China's balance of payments from two aspects: trade balance of payments and capital flow. The results show that the RMB exchange rate changes have a lag effect on the trade balance to some extent, and the RMB exchange rate movements also have an impact on the inflow of both long-term and short-term capital. In order to avoid a serious negative impact on China's economic development speed and domestic economic structure, to ease the political and economic pressure from abroad and to maintain the stability of China's international capital flow, the RMB may choose to maintain a low and stable growth rate. At the same time, flexible monetary policy and expansionary fiscal policy are adopted to reduce savings and stimulate consumption, so as to expand the positive impact of foreign trade and foreign capital investment on China's economy.
【学位授予单位】：上海师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F224;F832.6

【参考文献】