我国合资铁路项目盈利能力分析及授信风险防范

发布时间：2018-07-03 01:10

本文选题：合资铁路 + 授信风险　；参考：《西南财经大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：铁路行业凭借其运输能力大、安全性能高、低耗环保、全天候运输等优势,对世界各国的经济发展和社会进步发挥着重要作用。近年来,随着我国经济社会的快速发展,全社会对铁路运输需求的不断增长,使得国家加快了铁路建设步伐。“十一五”期间,我国对铁路的投资高达1.56万亿元,据国家铁路发展规划,“十二五”期间将建设新线3万公里,预计总资金需求2.8万亿元,主要用于建设高速铁路客运专线、发展城际客运轨道交通的既有线提速改造等。当前合资建设铁路已成为政府发展铁路的依赖途径,可以说合资铁路已成为铁路发展的载体。合资铁路的兴起,突破了旧的铁路投资体制束缚,改变了长期以来铁路投资主体单一、资金来源以来国家的状况,拓宽了筹资渠道,初步形成了铁路建设投资主体多元化的格局。但当前值得注意的是,诸多新建和在建合资铁路项目对资金的需求动辄以千亿计,大规模铁路建设迫切需要海量巨额资金支持,对于如此庞大的铁路投资资金,其融资来源绝大部分依赖商业银行,铁道部和地方政府。合资铁路项目的借款比例和总量不断被推高,为支持国家基础设施重大项目建设,银行授信条件也不断放宽,全信用、20年以上期限、利率下浮10%已成为常态。如果铁道部未来的融资依靠有息债务融资,预计每年的有息负债将净增5000亿元以上,到2015年末总负债规模可能达到4.68万亿元及资产负债率达72.2%。铁道部债务融资规模和风险已经达到极致,根据发改委关于铁路项目的最低资本金比例为25%规定,铁道部继续增加债务融资的比例将没有空间。在看似“繁华”的铁路建设和地方政府债务不断高企的情势下,合资铁路的银行授信风险不得不引起重视。本文通过对近年来两条具有代表性的合资铁路项目的盈利指标进行测算,揭示影响银行贷款本息偿债覆盖率的主要因素,并就影响因素进行深入探究。通过分析合资铁路授信存在的风险,提出相应的风险防范与应对措施,并就下一步银行对合资铁路建设提供融资支持提出对策建议。本文主要以通过数据分析得出盈利能力大小是决定银行授信风险的必要因素为线索,进一步导出风险点。并通过分析合资铁路项目银行授信风险,结合工作实际提出融资融智建议。本文的创新点在于：一是创新运用指标测算法对我国合资铁路盈利指标进行分析,从而得出影响银行授信风险的因素；二是运用风险分类分析法,提出合资铁路授信风险防范措施。
[Abstract]:The railway industry plays an important role in the economic development and social progress of the world by virtue of its advantages of large transportation capacity, high safety performance, low consumption and environmental protection, all-weather transportation and so on. In recent years, with the rapid development of our country's economy and society, the whole society's increasing demand for railway transportation makes the country quicken the pace of railway construction. During the 11th Five-Year Plan period, China's investment in railways reached 1.56 trillion yuan. According to the National Railway Development Plan, 30,000 km of new lines will be built during the 12th Five-Year Plan period. The total capital requirement is estimated to be 2.8 trillion yuan, mainly for the construction of high-speed passenger dedicated railway lines. Development of intercity passenger rail transit existing lines speed-up transformation and so on. At present, the joint-venture railway has become the dependent way for the government to develop the railway, and it can be said that the joint-venture railway has become the carrier of the railway development. The rise of the joint-venture railway has broken through the shackles of the old railway investment system, changed the state of the country since the long time when the main body of railway investment was single and the source of funds, and widened the channels for raising funds. Initially formed the railway construction investment main body diversification pattern. However, what is worth noting at present is that the demand for funds for many new and ongoing joint-venture railway projects is often in the hundreds of billions. Large scale railway construction urgently needs massive and huge financial support. For such a huge railway investment fund, Most of its sources of financing rely on commercial banks, the Ministry of Railways and local governments. The loan ratio and total amount of the joint-venture railway projects have been pushed up continuously. In order to support the construction of major national infrastructure projects, the bank credit conditions have been continuously relaxed, full credit has been extended, and the interest rate has dropped by 10 percent over 20 years' maturity. If the ministry relies on interest-bearing debt to finance its future financing, it expects its interest-bearing liabilities to rise by more than 500 billion yuan a year, with total liabilities likely to reach 4.68 trillion yuan by the end of 2015 and a debt ratio of 72.2 yuan. The Ministry of Railways has reached an extreme level of debt financing and there will be no room for it to continue to increase debt financing under the NDRC's 25 percent minimum capital ratio for rail projects. With the seemingly "prosperous" railway construction and the rising local government debt, the credit risk of the joint-venture railway banks has to be taken seriously. Through the calculation of the profit index of two representative joint-venture railway projects in recent years, this paper reveals the main factors that affect the coverage rate of principal and interest repayment of bank loans, and probes into the influencing factors. Based on the analysis of the risks existing in the credit granting of the joint-venture railway, this paper puts forward the corresponding risk prevention and countermeasures, and puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions on the next step for the banks to provide financing support for the construction of the joint-venture railway. Based on the data analysis, this paper draws the conclusion that the profitability is the necessary factor to determine the credit risk of the bank, and further deduces the risk point. Through analyzing the credit risk of the joint venture railway project bank, the paper puts forward the suggestion of financing and financing. The innovation of this paper lies in the following aspects: first, the author analyzes the profit index of the joint-venture railway in China by using the index calculation method, and obtains the factors that affect the credit risk of the bank; secondly, it uses the risk classification analysis method. The risk prevention measures of joint venture railway credit award are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.4;F532

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