我国货币流通速度问题研究

发布时间：2018-07-05 14:29

本文选题：货币流通速度 + 制度主义假说　；参考：《南开大学》2013年博士论文

【摘要】：货币流通速度与货币数量一起决定了社会的总需求水平,从而决定了名义产出的水平。在既定的名义收入增长的政策目标下,货币流通速度的预期变化决定了货币供给量的变化。货币流通速度的变化是由经济金融环境的变化决定的,同时货币流通速度的趋势和水平也反映出经济金融系统的运行状况。长期以来,货币流通速度问题一直是经济学家关注的焦点。在20世纪80年代以前,西方发达国家的货币需求与流通速度函数是稳定的,货币流通速度的变化可以被较好地预测到,也能够为货币政策提供有用的指导。但20世纪80年代以后,金融创新和金融发展使得西方国家的货币流通速度不再稳定,其变化也难以预测。西方国家的货币当局调整政策思路,或者采取更广义的货币供应量作为中介目标,或者采用利率作为政策中介目标。但对于那些依然将货币供给量作为货币政策中介目标的国家来说,货币流通速度的变化对于货币当局货量调控的效果依然有重要影响。中国人民银行从1994年起宣布以货币供给量作为货币政策的中介目标,1996年开始实行公开市场操作,1998年起取消贷对款规模的限制。我国的货币政策操作从以信贷规模控制为主的直接调控变为以货币总量调节为主的间接调控,因而货币流通速度问题也成为我国经济研究中无法回避的课题。改革开放以前,我国的货币流通速度相当稳定,中国人民银行按照1：8的经验公式进行货币投放,即现金流通量与社会零售商品总额之比为1：8。改革开放以后,我国货币流通速度基本上处于下降趋势,这主要是由改革推动的货币化进程造成的。目前我国采用广义货币M2作为货币政策的中介目标,我国的M2/GDP比率已经远远高于发达国家和其它转轨国家的水平。我国高比率的M2/GDP问题是与货币流通速度问题紧密联系在一起的,是同一枚硬币的两个方面。在这种背景下,一方面我国采用扩张性货币政策扩大内需时,效果往往不理想；另一方面,货币供给的高增长并未产生严重的通货膨胀。分析我国货币流通速度的影响因素、变化特征,及其反映出来的经济与金融领域的问题,进而为下一步的改革与发展提供启示,是我们研究的问题和希望达成的目标。事实上,笼统地讲货币供给量与名义收入间的关系是粗略的,货币流通速度问题实际上反映了货币数量政策的传导效率问题。所以,我们还要分析中国货币流通速度背后反映的货币传递机制问题,特别是其资产市场渠道。本文第2章根据不同的宏观经济模型,并结合有关预期的不同假设,来说明货币供给和名义产出之间的关联,以及货币流通速度在其中所起的作用。在古典模型中,货币流通速度与货币供给都只是影响价格水平,而不能影响实际产出。在价格刚性的凯恩斯模型下,货币流通速度的变化只影响实际产出而不影响价格水平,因为价格是刚性的。在一般模型下,货币流通速度与与货币供给一样,既影响价格水平,也影响实际产出。第3章回顾和梳理国际上对货币流通速度的实证研究,特别是发达国家货币流通速度的长期趋势与短期波动特征、影响因素、货币政策中介目标的选择等。因为各国已经或即将经历相似的金融制度变迁,发达国家的货币流通速度的变化历程,与发展中国家和转轨国家货币流通速度变化和政策实践有启示意义。在货币流通速度的长期趋势方面,发达国家货币流通速度的变化呈现U型特征。制度主义假说是对这种特征的解释,即U型模式是货币化进程和金融发展共同作用的结果,货币化进程使得货币流通速度下降,金融发展使得货币流通速度上升。在货币流通速度的稳定性和短期波动方面,1982年美国M1的“速度之谜”引起了大量争论,从那时起美国放弃M1作为政策中介目标。随着M2的流通速度在上世纪90年代不稳定,美国又放弃了M2作为货币政策的中介目标。这再次证明了货币流通速度的稳定性对货币政策中介目标选择的重要性。第4章结合我国货币政策的实践及其效果,测算并分析我国货币政策的长期变化和短期波动特征,并揭示其反映出来的经济与金融体统中的问题。改革开放以来,我国三个层次的货币流通速度总体上呈下降趋势,其中VO体现出一定的U型特征。我国货币流通速度的下降主要是由经济的货币化进程推动的。90年代以后VO出现了一定的上升,这是由金融发展引起MO的替代品增加引起的。从短期波动来看,V1和V2都体现出顺周期波动的特点。货币流通速度的顺周期变化是对逆风调节的货币政策效果的抵消。目前,我国以M2作为货币政策的中介目标,但是我国M2的流通速度水平过低,说明我国经济中存在超额货币问题。这可以解释为什么我国扩张性货币政策拉动内需的效果一直不佳。第5章对我国三个层次的货币流通速度的影响因素进行实证分析,采用的方法是协整回归,并详细考察其中货币化进程与金融发展这两个主要的制度方面。对我国货币流通速度的实证研究表明,货币化进程和金融现代化程度在回归结果中的表现符合制度主义假说的判断。我国的货币化进程不仅涵盖了产品市场,还涵盖了资产市场和各种生产要素领域的货币化。自20世纪90年代以来,我国的金融市场迅速发展,但其水平依然较低且存在着结构失衡问题。金融发展对我国货币流通速度的提高作用尚未发挥出来。除了制度因素外,货币流通速度的影响因素还有利率、储蓄率、通胀率等。因为货币流通速度问题实际上反映了货币向支付手段转化的效率,也反映了货币数量变化的影响向实体经济传导的效率。第6章考察我国货币政策的传导机制与传导效率问题,特别是货币政策通过资产市场的传导效率问题。本章分析货币数量变化通过影响股票价格和房地产价格的变化,来影响消费和投资的机制。从货币数量对资产价格的影响看,我国货币政策对房地产价格的影响是通畅的,但对股票市场的影响出现了阻塞,原因是我国股票市场与货币市场的割裂；从资产价格对实体经济的影响来看,房地产价格的上升能够起到促进消费和扩大投资的作用；但股票价格的上升无法起到促进消费和扩大投资的作用。总体来看,货币政策的资产价格传导渠道在股票市场这个板块上出现了问题,股票市场作为经济“晴雨表”的作用失效,而房地产市场却在国民经济发展中扮演了重要角色。现实经济生活中,货币流通速度是由各种经济力量共同影响和决定的。中央银行不能直接精确地调节和控制货币流通速度,但可以采取措施间接引导其向合意的方向变化。我们应当在保持货币供给量合理、适度、稳定增长的前提下,采取多种措施改变当前货币流通速度过低的局面,改善货币数量调控的政策效果。
[Abstract]:The rate of currency circulation , together with the quantity of money , determines the level of the total demand of the society , thus determining the level of nominal output . Under the policy objective of the established nominal income growth , the expected change of the speed of the currency circulation determines the change of the supply quantity of money . The change of the speed of the currency circulation is determined by the change of the economic and financial environment , and the trend and the level of the speed of the currency flow also reflect the operating conditions of the economic and financial system .

For a long time , the problem of currency circulation has been the focus of economists ' attention . In the 1980s , the monetary demand and circulation velocity function of the developed countries were stable , and the changes in monetary flow speed could be better predicted , and the changes of monetary policy could not be predicted .

Since 1994 , the People ' s Bank of China has declared the monetary supply as the intermediary target of monetary policy . In 1996 , the operation of the open market began to be carried out . In 1998 , the restrictions on the size of the loan were cancelled . The monetary policy operation of our country changed from the direct control based on the credit scale control to indirect control based on the adjustment of the total amount of money . Therefore , the problem of the speed of currency circulation has also become an unavoidable subject in our country ' s economic research .

Before the reform and opening up , China ' s currency circulation speed is quite stable , the People ' s Bank of China carries out the monetary deposit according to the empirical formula of 1 : 8 . The ratio of cash flow to total retail commodity is 1 : 8 . At present , China ' s currency circulation rate is basically in the downward trend . The M2 / GDP ratio in China is much higher than that of developed countries and other countries . At present , China ' s high ratio M2 / GDP problem is closely related to the problem of currency circulation speed , which is the same coin . In this background , on the one hand , China adopts the expansive monetary policy to expand domestic demand , the effect is often not ideal ;
On the other hand , the high growth of money supply hasn ' t produced serious inflation . The factors , changing characteristics and the problems of the economy and finance reflected in our country ' s currency circulation are analyzed , and the enlightenment to the next step ' s reform and development is the aim of our research and the hope to achieve .

In fact , the relationship between money supply and nominal income is rough , and the problem of monetary circulation speed actually reflects the efficiency of monetary policy . Therefore , we should also analyze the mechanism of money transfer reflected in the speed of China ' s currency circulation , especially its assets market channel .

In the classical model , the rate of currency circulation and money supply only affect the price level , but cannot affect the actual output . Under the Keynesian model of price rigidity , the rate of currency circulation only affects the actual output without affecting the price level , because the price is rigid . Under the general model , the speed of the currency circulation is the same as that of the money supply , which affects both the price level and the actual output .

Chapter 3 reviews and sorts out the empirical research on the speed of currency circulation , especially the long - term trend and short - term fluctuation characteristics , the influencing factors and the choice of monetary policy intermediary target .

Chapter 4 combines the practice and effect of China ' s monetary policy , calculates and analyzes the long - term and short - term fluctuation characteristics of China ' s monetary policy , and reveals its economic and financial problems .

Chapter 5 is an empirical analysis of the factors affecting the speed of currency circulation in three levels in China . The empirical research on the speed of currency circulation in China shows that the monetary process and financial modernization are in conformity with the judgment of institutional hypothesis . In China , the monetary process not only covers the product market , but also covers the problem of structural imbalance . In addition to institutional factors , the factors of the speed of currency circulation are also interest rate , savings rate , inflation rate and so on .

In chapter 6 , the effect of monetary policy on real estate prices is smooth , but the effect of monetary policy on the price of real estate is blocked because of the splitting of stock market and money market .
From the impact of asset price on real economy , the rise of real estate price can play a role in promoting consumption and expanding investment ;
However , the rise of stock price can not play a role in promoting consumption and expanding investment . Generally speaking , the asset price transmission channel of monetary policy has appeared on the plate of the stock market , and the stock market has failed as the economic " barometer " , and the real estate market plays an important role in the development of national economy .

In the real economic life , the speed of currency circulation is influenced and decided by various economic forces . The central bank cannot directly and accurately regulate and control the speed of currency circulation . However , measures can be taken to indirectly guide the currency circulation speed . We should adopt various measures to change the situation of low current currency circulation speed and improve the policy effect of monetary quantity control .
【学位授予单位】：南开大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F822.2

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