中国短期国际资本流动规模测度及监管问题研究

发布时间：2018-07-07 22:00

本文选题：短期国际资本流动 + 国际资本流动监管　；参考：《东北财经大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：论文主要内容是从国际资本流动的规模和构成、国际资本流动渠道和国际资本监管政策的发展等多个角度分析我国资本流动及其监管的历史、现状和存在的问题,并针对这些问题提出政策建议。随着经济全球化和金融自由化的进程,短期国际资本流动正扮演着越来越重要的角色,并推动着这一趋势的快速发展。我国政府开始放松之前严格的资本管制,让外国投资者可以将资金投入中国的股市和其他金融市场,更确切的讲,中国外汇管理局已经开始放松对合格境外机构投资者的资本的限制,.以更加开放的姿态迎接海外的企业机构投资中国的证券市场。近年来,伴随着人民币强烈的升值预期,大规模投机性质的外国资本涌入中国,这对我国国际资本流动的监管提出了新的挑战,而近年来我国国际资本流动的规模几何?我国对于短期资本流动的监管是否有效?这都是值得深思的问题,论文的研究意义正在于此。文献综述部分首先确定短期国际资本流动的概念,从它的易变性和投机性的角度出发,认为所谓短期国际资本流动是指一国境内账户中,所有可能在一年内发生方向改变的资本。其次通过广泛的查阅相关文献,分析前人研究国际资本流动的规模测度分析,总结各个学者的观点,发现大部分学者都采取相类似的估算方法,同时根据自身需要和实际情况对短期国际资本流动的规模测度方法进行改进。众多短期国际资本流动的测度方法可以分为非直接投资净额调整法、直接法、间接法、摩根法、克莱因法和多利法六种,其中非直接投资净额调整法和直接法计算原理较为简便,估算出的短期国际资本流动虽然易于理解但是并不能有效的对隐性资本流动进行测度,而摩根法、克莱因法和多利法从本质上都属于间接法的思路,只是对间接法的计算项目进行了细微的调整。通过对各种测度方法的测评,最后确定论文的短期国际资本流动的测度方法应该遵循间接法的思路,并且根据具体情况进行相应的调整。第二章节估算方法确定后,通过估算我国从1998年到2012年各个季度的国际短期资本流动规模,发现国际资本流动的确有很大的波动性,频繁出入,我国的资本流动主要以流入为主,但存在突然流出的现象,如2012年流出额度达到1660亿美元。另外基于估算结果还发现,自2005年第一季度后我国国际资本流动呈现明显的周期性,呈现出“先净流出,后净流入”的波动趋势。第三章节分析了我国隐性短期资本流动,分别从经常项目下的隐性短期资本流动和资本项目下的隐性资本流动进行分析。经常项目方面具体分析了贸易伪报、预收货款和延期付款、跨境关联交易和其他非贸易渠道中可能隐藏的短期资本流动；资本项目方面则具体分析了隐藏于外商直接投资、短期外债和非法途径的短期资本流动。除了利用选定的方法估算我国短期资本流动,论文还借鉴前人研究,估算了1998年到2012年我国年度贸易伪报的规模,以此分析隐性资本流动的规模,及其对于我国国际资本流动监管的影响,发现以2006年为分界,之前的贸易伪报主要是国际资本流入的渠道,而之后逐渐变成国际资本逃离我国的手段,这种变化在监管政策的制定时应予以充分的考虑。通过对我国资本管制政策的研究,认为我国目前存在多头监管、效率低下、监管成本高、法制建设不健全等问题。最后,论文针对研究中发现的问题,对我国国际资本流动的监管提出了相应的政策建议,认为我国短期内资本监管仍有必要,但制定相关政策要符合当时形势和发展的需要,建立完善国际资本流动预警体系。
[Abstract]:The main contents of this paper are the scale and composition of international capital flow , the development of international capital flow channel and international capital supervision policy , and the history , present situation and existing problems of our country ' s capital flow and its supervision , and put forward policy suggestions for these problems .

With the globalization of the economy and the process of financial liberalization , short - term international capital flows are playing an increasingly important role and pushing for the rapid development of this trend . Our government has begun to loosen up strict capital controls before allowing foreign investors to invest money in China ' s stock markets and other financial markets , more precisely , China ' s foreign exchange administration has begun to loosen restrictions on the capital of qualified foreign institutional investors . In recent years , with the strong appreciation of RMB , foreign capital of large - scale speculation has poured into China , which poses a new challenge to the regulation of international capital flow in China .

This paper first determines the concept of short - term international capital flow , from the point of view of its volatility and speculative nature , thinks so - called short - term international capital flow is the capital that can change in the course of one year .

The second chapter estimates the international short - term capital flows from 1998 to 2012 by estimating the international short - term capital flow size of our country from 1998 to 2012 .

The third chapter analyzes the latent short - term capital flows in China , and analyzes the hidden capital flows under the latent short - term capital flow under the current project and the implicit capital flows under the capital project , and analyzes the short - term capital flows which may be hidden in the trade fraud , the advance payment and the deferred payment , cross - border related transactions and other non - trade channels .
In addition to using the selected method to estimate the short - term capital flow in our country , the paper also draws on the former research and estimates the scale of China ' s annual trade false report from 1998 to 2012 . This paper estimates the scale of the implicit capital flow and its influence on the international capital flow supervision in China , and finds that the former trade fraud is mainly the channel of international capital inflow , and then gradually becomes the means of international capital flight from our country . This change should be taken into consideration in the formulation of the regulatory policy .

Based on the study of our country ' s capital control policy , it is concluded that there are many problems in our country , such as low supervision , low efficiency , high supervision cost and imperfect legal system construction . Finally , the paper puts forward some policy suggestions on the supervision of international capital flow in our country . It is believed that the short - term capital supervision in our country is still necessary , but the relevant policies should meet the needs of the situation and development at the time , and establish the international capital flow early warning system .
【学位授予单位】：东北财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.6

【参考文献】