货币冲销能力对人民币货币锚作用的研究—东南亚区域

发布时间：2018-07-09 17:55

本文选题：冲销能力 + 经济规模　；参考：《西南财经大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来频繁出现全球经济失衡的现象,某些发达国家认为中国的出口政策是导致其经济失衡的原因,不但对我国进行指责,还加大本国对外贸易的保护强度而迫使人民币升值。经济学家很担心我国出口竞争力会因为人民币升值而大幅度降低,从而影响我国经济的可持续发展。但其实倘若东南亚国家货币能够在人民币升值的带动下实现集体升值,那么我国的出口竞争力就不会因为人民币的升值而出现大的逆转,所以人们不必过多担心人民币升值所带来的负面影响,相反,人民币升值还可以带来很多益处,如使得国际收支失衡得以缓解,东南亚区域的整体福利水平得以提高等等。现在的中国作为一个日新月异的强国,毋庸置疑,只待时机成熟,其必然会再次崛起。然而随着中国再次成为世界的领导者,人民币必然会走上国际化的道路,不仅因为其代表中国经济的软实力,而且纵观货币的衍生史,美元、英镑都逃不过这个历史的规律。从另一角度来看,中国同东南亚国家越来越密切的经贸关系,说明美国在东南亚的主导地位已经慢慢被中国所替代,这不但为人民币在东南亚地区进出口贸易中,成为具有支付功能、计价手段等一系列功能的国际货币奠定了坚实的基础,还为人民币逐渐成为被东南亚国家盯住的货币创造了条件,从而提升了人民币在东南亚区域的实际地位。同时,人民币在东南亚地区地位的提升,不仅使得东南亚经济一体化的速度加快了,还使东南亚地区内经济交易的规模得以扩大了,反过来,现实产生了以人民币替代东南亚其他国家货币交易的需要,减少了区域内增加的交易成本,扩张了每个国家进出口贸易的规模和交易的效率,减少了东南亚区域国家对美元的过渡依赖和系统系的世界风险,创造了更多的多边贸易机会。本文从冲销能力的角度分析了人民币升值是否能够带动东南亚国家货币集体升值。笔者认为经济规模越大,冲销能力越强。原因是一国货币需求量会随着其经济规模的扩大而增加,在货币供给量因为外汇储备增加而增长时,很大一部分货币能被增加的货币需求量所吸收,使得通货膨胀压力减小。从而冲销难度小,冲销能力强。在此基础上,本文应用费雪方程式来建立理论模型,选取2000到2010年间中国、马来西亚、泰国、印尼和菲律宾5个国家的季度数据作为样本数据,建立实证模型。实证结果表明,经济规模同冲销能力确实呈正相关关系。接着本文对5个样本国2000到2010年间样本国的时间序列数据进行分析,结果表明中国的冲销能力确实强于其他四个国家。根据上述结论,接着本文对东南亚小国对于人民币升值的反应进行分析。笔者认为,人民币升值后,倘若东南亚小国的货币不跟随人民币的升值而升值,那么其国际收支顺差额和外汇储备额都将增加,从而将导致国内出现通货膨胀,而东南亚小国经济规模小,冲销能力很弱,不能通过冲销来平抑国内物价,从而本币最终也将出现实际的升值。所以,中国同东南亚小国间冲销能力存在的巨大差异,将使东南亚货币最终能在人民币升值的带动下实现集体的升值。也就是说人民币升值不会对中国的出口竞争力造成严重影响,人们不必担心人民币的升值。最后,本文结合研究现状,总结出人民币不仅能够阻止东南亚国家货币竞争性贬值,也能够带动东南亚国家货币集体升值的结论。说明人民币已经成为东南亚区域事实上的“隐性锚”。接着本文提出应进一步加强东南亚国家间的对话与合作,推进汇率合作体系的形成,促使人民币从“隐性锚”向“显性锚”的转变,加快人民币国际化进程等政策建议。
[Abstract]:In recent years, there has been a frequent phenomenon of global economic imbalances. Some developed countries believe that China's export policy is the cause of its economic imbalance. It not only accuses China, but also increases the strength of its foreign trade to force the RMB to appreciate. Economists are very worried that China's export competitiveness will be substantial because of the appreciation of the RMB. In fact, if the currency of the Southeast Asian countries can realize the collective appreciation of the RMB, the export competitiveness of our country will not be reversed by the appreciation of the RMB, so people don't have to worry too much about the negative effects of the appreciation of the RMB. On the contrary, the appreciation of the RMB can also bring many benefits, such as easing the balance of balance of payments, improving the overall welfare level of the region in Southeast Asia, and so on. Now China, as a new and changing country, is sure to rise again only when the time is ripe. However, as China becomes the leader of the world again, China will be the leader of the world again. The RMB is bound to go on the road of internationalization, not only because it represents the soft power of China's economy, but also the history of the currency derivation, the dollar and the pound can not escape this historical law. From another point of view, the closer economic and trade relations between China and the Southeast Asian countries show that the dominant position of the United States in Southeast Asia has been slowly taken. The substitution of China has laid a solid foundation not only for the RMB in the import and export trade of Southeast Asia, but also for a series of functions such as payment function and valuation means. It also creates conditions for RMB to gradually become the currency pegged by Southeast Asian countries, thus improving the actual situation of the RMB in the Southeast Asia region. At the same time, the promotion of RMB's position in Southeast Asia not only accelerated the speed of economic integration in Southeast Asia, but also expanded the scale of economic transactions in Southeast Asia. In turn, the reality produced the need to replace the currency of other countries in Southeast Asia, and reduced the increase in transaction costs in the region. The scale of each country's import and export trade and the efficiency of the transaction have reduced the countries' transition dependence on the US dollar and the world risk of the system, creating more opportunities for multilateral trade.
This paper analyzes whether the appreciation of RMB can promote the appreciation of the collective currency of the Southeast Asian countries from the perspective of the cancellation ability. The greater the economic scale, the stronger the cancellation ability. The reason is that the demand of a country's currency will increase with the expansion of its economic scale, and a large part of the money supply increases with the increase of foreign exchange reserves. Money can be absorbed by increased demand for money, thus reducing inflationary pressure, thus making it easier to write off and sterilizing.
On this basis, this paper uses the Fisher Equation to establish a theoretical model, and selects the quarterly data of 5 countries in China, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and Philippines from 2000 to 2010 as sample data to establish an empirical model. The empirical results show that the economic scale is positively related to the power of the cancellation. Then this paper is to 5 sample countries 2000. By analyzing the time series data of sample countries in the year 2010, the results show that China's sterilizing ability is indeed stronger than that of the other four countries.
On the basis of the above conclusion, this paper then analyzes the response of small countries in Southeast Asia to the appreciation of RMB. The author believes that, after the appreciation of the RMB, if the currencies of small countries in Southeast Asia do not follow the appreciation of the renminbi, the balance of balance of payments and the amount of foreign exchange reserves will increase, which will lead to inflation at home. The small economies of South Asia are small in scale, weak in cancellation, and can not suppress domestic prices by selling them. Thus the currency will eventually rise in value. Therefore, the huge difference between China and small countries in Southeast Asia will lead to the collective appreciation of the Southeast Asian Currency under the impetus of the appreciation of the renminbi. That is to say, people The appreciation of the renminbi will not seriously affect China's export competitiveness, and there is no need to worry about the appreciation of the renminbi.
Finally, this paper summarizes the conclusion that RMB can not only prevent the competitive devaluation of the currencies of Southeast Asian countries, but also can lead to the appreciation of the Southeast Asian countries' currency collective appreciation. It shows that the RMB has become a "hidden anchor" in the region of Southeast Asia. In cooperation, we should promote the formation of exchange rate cooperation system, promote the transformation of RMB from "hidden anchor" to "dominant anchor", and accelerate the process of RMB internationalization.
【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.6;F833.3

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