北京金融发展与经济增长关系的实证分析

发布时间：2018-07-11 21:46

本文选题：金融相关率 + 金融储蓄结构　；参考：《开发研究》2011年04期

【摘要】：文章采用北京1978—2009年的数据,运用协整检验、格兰杰因果关系检验及脉冲响应分析对北京金融发展与经济增长二者的关系进行了实证研究,结果表明:北京金融相关率、金融储蓄结构与经济增长均存在长期稳定的均衡关系,其中金融相关率与经济增长间呈正相关关系,金融储蓄结构与经济增长之间则呈负相关关系;且北京金融相关率与经济增长二者互为因果关系,此外,北京经济增长是金融储蓄结构的格兰杰原因,而金融储蓄结构却不是经济增长的格兰杰原因。对此进一步提出对策建议,即应适度扩大北京金融规模,促进金融服务效率的提高;同时提升北京居民储蓄向投资转化的能力,缩小对境内外资金的依赖。在"十二五"时期,需要有重点适时地扩大金融深化程度,以促进经济的不断增长。
[Abstract]:Based on the data of Beijing from 1978 to 2009, the paper uses cointegration test, Granger causality test and impulse response analysis to study the relationship between Beijing financial development and economic growth. The results show that: Beijing financial correlation rate. Financial savings structure and economic growth have a long-term stable equilibrium relationship, in which the financial correlation rate and economic growth positive correlation, financial savings structure and economic growth is a negative correlation; Moreover, Beijing's economic growth is the Granger cause of financial savings structure, while the financial savings structure is not the Granger cause of economic growth. The countermeasures and suggestions are put forward, that is, to expand the financial scale of Beijing moderately, to promote the efficiency of financial services, and to enhance the ability of the residents in Beijing to transform their savings into investment so as to reduce their dependence on domestic and foreign funds. In the period of the twelfth five-year plan, it is necessary to expand the financial deepening in order to promote the economic growth.
【作者单位】：中华女子学院金融系;
【分类号】：F224;F832.7;F127

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