个人住房贷款行为与房贷调控的有效性分析

发布时间：2018-07-12 07:48

本文选题：房贷调控 + 贷款利率　；参考：《经济研究》2011年S1期

【摘要】：本文利用成都市房地产交易的微观数据(2004—2006),实证检验了我国房地产信贷政策的变化对微观个体住房贷款决策行为的影响效果。我们发现,地方购房者的贷款决策对中央利率调控有明显反应。实证结果显示:当长期贷款利率升幅较短期贷款利率升幅高0.1百分点时,贷款者选择短期贷款的概率增加8.4个百分点;而且利用商业住房贷款利率和公积金贷款利率变动差异的"自然实验",我们有效控制了可能由宏观政策内生性产生的计量问题,从微观角度为长、短期利率政策的有效性提供了更可靠的实证检验。此外,我们还发现首付比例政策并没有得到地方银行的严格实施。因此,文章建议政府进一步重视利率政策对房地产市场的调整,而包括首付比例等相关政策的实施需加强对地方执行部门监管的力度。
[Abstract]:Based on the microcosmic data of real estate transactions in Chengdu (2004-2006), this paper empirically examines the effect of the change of real estate credit policy on the individual housing loan decision-making behavior in China. We found that local home buyers' loan decision to the central interest rate control has a clear response. The empirical results show that the probability of borrowers choosing short-term loans increases by 8.4 percentage points when the increase of long-term loan interest rate is 0.1 percentage point higher than that of short-term loan interest rate. Moreover, by using the "natural experiment" of the difference in interest rates between commercial housing loans and provident fund loans, we have effectively controlled the metrological problems that may arise from the endogenous nature of macro policies. From a micro perspective, we have a long way to go. The effectiveness of short-term interest rate policy provides a more reliable empirical test. In addition, we also found that the down payment ratio policy has not been strictly implemented by local banks. Therefore, the paper suggests that the government should pay more attention to the adjustment of the interest rate policy to the real estate market, and the implementation of the related policies, including the proportion of down payment, should strengthen the supervision of the local executive departments.
【作者单位】：中国人民大学汉青经济与金融高级研究院;中国人民大学经济学院;四川大学经济学院;香港大学经济金融学院;
【基金】：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(11YJC790244) 四川大学中央高校基本科研业务费研究专项项目(skq201120)的资助
【分类号】：F832.479;F224

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