中国对非跨国农业投资的贸易效应研究
发布时间：2018-07-21 09:01
【摘要】：随着中国城镇化建设的开展,中国人均农业资源匮乏的问题日益加剧。农业海外直接投资已经成为一种必然趋势。虽然中国海外直接投资增长迅速,但作为“走出去”战略重要组成部分的农业海外直接投资却一直没有得到足够的重视。非洲虽具有非常充裕的农业资源,但是由于技术水平等的限制,一直没有得到充分的开发。本文通过必要性和可行性两方面阐述了中国农业需要并且有能力“走”到非洲去。 中国对非洲跨国农业投资对母国的经济效应有许多,本文就其一个子方面,即贸易效应进行研究探讨。一直以来,关于海外直接投资会增加(互补)还是减少(替代)母国出口的争论从未间断。假设市场规模或者跨国公司的市场份额是外生给定的,那么出国生产只是在出口和海外投资二者择其一,从这个意义上来说,海外直接投资与出口是替代的。但是,如果海外生产会导致对母国产品需求的增加或者它会导致对母国一些投入(如零部件等)的增加,那么它就会激发跨国母公司甚至其他母国企业的出口。另外,在东道国设置子公司会增加母国对于进口配额的谈判能力,从而增加出口。 那么中国对非洲跨国农业投资对中非出口效应又是怎么样的?本文首先构造了一个数理模型发现OFDI与出口之间既有替代关系也有互补关系,最终表现的效应则由两者的博弈结果决定。东道国消费者对该行业最终产品的偏好,对投资母国出口相对其在东道国投资生产的最终产品的偏好以及东道国的收入水平都会影响OFDI与出口贸易之间的关系。东道国对该行业最终产品的偏好越大,消费者越偏好进口该行业的最终产品,东道国的收入水平越高,则OFDI与贸易之间的关系越体现出其互补性。然后利用中国与非洲二十国的投资及贸易数据进行了实证分析,得出了对非跨国农业投资与中非农产品出口贸易之间存在长期稳定的正向均衡关系的结论。但是,对非洲各国的农业OFDI的出口效应具有显著的非线性特征,贸易效应随各国基础设施、市场规模和风险因素等条件的不同而明显不同。基于基础设施和开放度的研究表明,基础设施和开放程度与对非跨国农业投资的贸易效应正相关。在基础设施较好或开放度较高的地区,OFDI对出口的互补效应较强。基于市场规模的研究表明,市场规模对OFDI的贸易效应的影响具有门槛特征。在市场规模较大或较小的地区,OFDI的互补效应比较突出,在市场规模适中的地区,OFDI的贸易互补效应相对较弱。 中国对非洲跨国农业投资对中非出口效应不只是表现为数量的“量变”,还会表现为结构上的“质变”。本文在分析中非农产品出口构成变化的基础上,构造G-L指数和基尼赫希曼指数,研究中非农产品出口结构的变化,并在此基础上运用协整和格兰杰因果检验得出中国对非跨国农业投资会促使中非农产品出口结构优化的结论。在文章的最后一部分,从国家和企业两个视角对非洲农业投资提出了建议。
[Abstract]:With the development of China's urbanization, the problem of the lack of agricultural resources per capita in China is becoming more and more serious. The direct investment in agricultural overseas has become an inevitable trend. Although China's overseas direct investment is growing rapidly, the agricultural overseas direct investment, as an important part of the "going out" strategy, has not been paid enough attention. Although Africa has very abundant agricultural resources, it has not been fully developed because of the limitation of technical level. This paper expounds the needs of China's agriculture and has the ability to "go" to Africa through two aspects of necessity and feasibility.
China has a lot of economic effects on the country's multinational agricultural investment in the country. This paper studies the trade effect on one of its sub aspects, that is, the debate on foreign direct investment will increase (complementary) or to reduce the export of the mother country. The market size of false market or the market share of multinational corporations is exogenous. As a matter of fact, overseas production is only one of two options for export and overseas investment. In this sense, overseas direct investment and export are alternative. However, if overseas production leads to an increase in the demand for the home country's products or it will lead to an increase in some investment (such as parts) to the home country, it will stimulate the multinational mother. In addition, the establishment of subsidiaries in host countries will increase the bargaining power of home countries for import quotas, thereby increasing exports.
Then, what is China's export effect on African transnational agricultural investment to China and Africa? This paper first constructs a mathematical model to find that both the OFDI and the export have both the complementary relationship and the complementary relationship. The final performance effect is determined by the game results of the two. The preference of the country's exports to the final products invested in the host country and the income level of the host country will affect the relationship between the OFDI and the export trade. The greater the preference of the host country to the final product of the industry, the more consumers prefer to import the final products of the industry, the higher the income level of the host country, the between the OFDI and trade. The relationship shows its complementarity, and then using the investment and trade data of China and Africa twenty countries to carry out an empirical analysis, the conclusion is drawn that there is a long-term stable and stable equilibrium relationship between non transnational agricultural investment and China non-agricultural products export trade. However, the export effect of agricultural OFDI in each country of Africa has a significant difference. The trade effect varies significantly with the conditions of infrastructure, market size and risk factors. Research based on infrastructure and openness shows that infrastructure and openness are positively related to the trade effect on non transnational agricultural investment. In areas with better infrastructure or higher openness, OFDI is for export. The research based on market size shows that the market size has a threshold characteristic on the trade effect of OFDI. The complementary effect of OFDI is more prominent in areas with larger or smaller market size, and the complementary effect of OFDI is weaker in areas with moderate market size.
On the basis of the analysis of the changes in the export composition of non-agricultural products, the G-L index and Gene Hirshman index are constructed on the basis of the analysis of the changes in the export composition of non-agricultural products, and the changes in the export structure of the agricultural products are studied and carried on this basis. Cointegration and Grainger causality test are used to draw a conclusion that China's investment in non transnational agricultural investment will lead to the optimization of the export structure of China's non-agricultural products. In the last part of the article, some suggestions on agricultural investment in Africa are put forward from two perspectives of state and enterprise.
【学位授予单位】：浙江工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F752.7;F832.6;F34
本文编号：2135014
[Abstract]:With the development of China's urbanization, the problem of the lack of agricultural resources per capita in China is becoming more and more serious. The direct investment in agricultural overseas has become an inevitable trend. Although China's overseas direct investment is growing rapidly, the agricultural overseas direct investment, as an important part of the "going out" strategy, has not been paid enough attention. Although Africa has very abundant agricultural resources, it has not been fully developed because of the limitation of technical level. This paper expounds the needs of China's agriculture and has the ability to "go" to Africa through two aspects of necessity and feasibility.
China has a lot of economic effects on the country's multinational agricultural investment in the country. This paper studies the trade effect on one of its sub aspects, that is, the debate on foreign direct investment will increase (complementary) or to reduce the export of the mother country. The market size of false market or the market share of multinational corporations is exogenous. As a matter of fact, overseas production is only one of two options for export and overseas investment. In this sense, overseas direct investment and export are alternative. However, if overseas production leads to an increase in the demand for the home country's products or it will lead to an increase in some investment (such as parts) to the home country, it will stimulate the multinational mother. In addition, the establishment of subsidiaries in host countries will increase the bargaining power of home countries for import quotas, thereby increasing exports.
Then, what is China's export effect on African transnational agricultural investment to China and Africa? This paper first constructs a mathematical model to find that both the OFDI and the export have both the complementary relationship and the complementary relationship. The final performance effect is determined by the game results of the two. The preference of the country's exports to the final products invested in the host country and the income level of the host country will affect the relationship between the OFDI and the export trade. The greater the preference of the host country to the final product of the industry, the more consumers prefer to import the final products of the industry, the higher the income level of the host country, the between the OFDI and trade. The relationship shows its complementarity, and then using the investment and trade data of China and Africa twenty countries to carry out an empirical analysis, the conclusion is drawn that there is a long-term stable and stable equilibrium relationship between non transnational agricultural investment and China non-agricultural products export trade. However, the export effect of agricultural OFDI in each country of Africa has a significant difference. The trade effect varies significantly with the conditions of infrastructure, market size and risk factors. Research based on infrastructure and openness shows that infrastructure and openness are positively related to the trade effect on non transnational agricultural investment. In areas with better infrastructure or higher openness, OFDI is for export. The research based on market size shows that the market size has a threshold characteristic on the trade effect of OFDI. The complementary effect of OFDI is more prominent in areas with larger or smaller market size, and the complementary effect of OFDI is weaker in areas with moderate market size.
On the basis of the analysis of the changes in the export composition of non-agricultural products, the G-L index and Gene Hirshman index are constructed on the basis of the analysis of the changes in the export composition of non-agricultural products, and the changes in the export structure of the agricultural products are studied and carried on this basis. Cointegration and Grainger causality test are used to draw a conclusion that China's investment in non transnational agricultural investment will lead to the optimization of the export structure of China's non-agricultural products. In the last part of the article, some suggestions on agricultural investment in Africa are put forward from two perspectives of state and enterprise.
【学位授予单位】：浙江工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F752.7;F832.6;F34
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