短期国际资本流动新趋势、对我国的影响及其防范
发布时间：2018-07-22 19:25
【摘要】：当前,全球资本流动总量小幅但不均衡回升,未来有可能缓慢增长;发展中国家资本市场的发展正在逐渐改变国际资本流动的结构;国际金融市场参与者的角色发生很大的变化;国际资本向新兴经济体特别是亚洲新兴经济体大量流动。在短期国际资本的持续冲击下,新兴经济体已有形成资产泡沫的风险,并且在未来仍有继续扩大的趋势。对于中国而言,热钱在中国的投机空间有限,短期内大规模持续流入的条件还不具备,温和流入并时有反复可能将成长期趋势。要摆脱国际热钱大规模流动带来的包括人民币升值压力在内的一系列困扰,必须采取疏堵结合的方式:一方面,采取有效的防御性措施,监控各类热钱,加强流入管制;另一方面,应重视疏导的作用,抑制泡沫膨胀,吸引中长期国际资本,防范和限制短期资本泛滥。
[Abstract]:At present, the total amount of global capital flows is rising slightly but unevenly, which is likely to grow slowly in the future. The development of capital markets in developing countries is gradually changing the structure of international capital flows. The role of international financial market participants has changed considerably; international capital flows to emerging economies, particularly in Asia. Under the sustained impact of short-term international capital, emerging economies have formed the risk of asset bubbles, and will continue to expand in the future. For China, hot money has limited room for speculation in China, conditions for large-scale sustained inflows in the short term are not yet available, and moderate inflows and sometimes recurring trends are likely to grow. In order to get rid of a series of troubles caused by the large-scale flow of international hot money, including the pressure of RMB appreciation, we must take the following ways: on the one hand, we should take effective defensive measures to monitor all kinds of hot money and strengthen the control of inflow; On the other hand, we should pay attention to the role of diversion, restrain bubble inflation, attract medium and long term international capital, and prevent and limit short-term capital flooding.
【作者单位】： 中国国际经济交流中心;
【分类号】：F831.6
，
本文编号：2138323
[Abstract]:At present, the total amount of global capital flows is rising slightly but unevenly, which is likely to grow slowly in the future. The development of capital markets in developing countries is gradually changing the structure of international capital flows. The role of international financial market participants has changed considerably; international capital flows to emerging economies, particularly in Asia. Under the sustained impact of short-term international capital, emerging economies have formed the risk of asset bubbles, and will continue to expand in the future. For China, hot money has limited room for speculation in China, conditions for large-scale sustained inflows in the short term are not yet available, and moderate inflows and sometimes recurring trends are likely to grow. In order to get rid of a series of troubles caused by the large-scale flow of international hot money, including the pressure of RMB appreciation, we must take the following ways: on the one hand, we should take effective defensive measures to monitor all kinds of hot money and strengthen the control of inflow; On the other hand, we should pay attention to the role of diversion, restrain bubble inflation, attract medium and long term international capital, and prevent and limit short-term capital flooding.
【作者单位】： 中国国际经济交流中心;
【分类号】：F831.6
，
本文编号：2138323
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