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我国当前的通货紧缩风险及其影响因素研究

发布时间:2018-07-24 17:08
【摘要】:近年来我国经济增长速度明显放缓,尤其在进入2015年后更是跌破了7%,创下了近25年来的新低。我国经济增速持续下滑的同时,物价水平也持续低位徘徊,2015年全年居民消费价格指数(CPI)同比增长1.4%,较2014年回落了0.6个百分点。此外,截止2016年4月工业生产者出厂价格指数(PPI)已经连续50个月保持负增长,未来转正仍然遥遥无期。新常态下,我国CPI增速的持续回落和PPI的连续下跌让我们不得不警惕通货紧缩风险的存在,如何评估当前我国的宏观金融形势、厘清当前我国通货紧缩风险的成因,制定系统的宏观经济政策以防范通货紧缩的发生,成为当前亟需解决的重要问题。本文首先对我国通货紧缩风险的现状进行了分析,并在此基础上采用Ordered Probit模型研究了当前我国分别处于价格稳定、通货膨胀和通货紧缩三个通胀区间的概率。本文认为,我国经济虽然未陷入全面通货紧缩,但是潜在通货紧缩风险已经很高,需要政府高度重视。其次,本文运用VAR模型对可能引发通货紧缩风险的各因素进行了实证分析,得出了如下结论:有效需求不足、产能过剩是当前我国通货紧缩风险的根本性影响因素;资产价格、通货紧缩预期、货币是当前我国通货紧缩风险的主要影响因素;外部传导性因素是构成当前我国通货紧缩的重要推手。最后,在厘清当前我国通货紧缩风险影响因素的基础上,本文有针对性的提出了一系列切实可行的政策建议,以缓解我国当前的通货紧缩风险,确保我国宏观经济在合理的区间内按照“新常态”稳健运行。
[Abstract]:China's economic growth has slowed markedly in recent years, especially since 2015, when it has fallen below 7%, the lowest in nearly 25 years. China's economic growth continued to decline, while prices remained low, with the consumer price index (CPI) rising 1.4 percentage points year-on-year in 2015, down 0.6 percentage points from 2014. In addition, the industrial producer price index (PPI) has maintained negative growth for 50 consecutive months as of April 2016, and future gains remain elusive. Under the new normal, the sustained decline of CPI growth rate and the continuous decline of PPI make us have to guard against the existence of deflation risk. How to evaluate the current macro financial situation and clarify the causes of deflation risk in China. It is an important problem to make a systematic macroeconomic policy to prevent deflation. This paper first analyzes the current situation of deflation risk in China, and then uses Ordered Probit model to study the probability of price stability, inflation and deflation in three inflation regions. This paper holds that although China's economy is not in total deflation, the risk of potential deflation is very high, and the government should attach great importance to it. Secondly, this paper makes an empirical analysis of various factors that may lead to deflation risk by using VAR model, and draws the following conclusions: insufficient effective demand, excess capacity is the fundamental influencing factor of deflation risk in China at present; Deflation expectation, currency is the main influence factor of deflation risk in our country at present, and external conduction factor is the important pushing hand that constitutes deflation at present in our country. Finally, on the basis of clarifying the influencing factors of deflation risk in China, this paper puts forward a series of practical and feasible policy recommendations to alleviate the current deflation risk in China. To ensure that China's macroeconomic in a reasonable range in accordance with the "new normal" steady operation.
【学位授予单位】:华侨大学
【学位级别】:硕士
【学位授予年份】:2016
【分类号】:F822.5


本文编号:2142068

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