中国居民储蓄影响因素分析

发布时间：2018-08-03 17:10

【摘要】：改革开放30多年来，随着我国经济的快速增长，居民生活水平不断提高，居民储蓄余额一直处于高增长态势，居民储蓄在国民经济中的地位不断上升。但与此同时，也伴随着很多问题，特别是结构性矛盾问题。近年来，国内最终消费占国内生产总值的比重越来越少，我国最终消费量中占较大比重的是居民消费，所以最终消费量的减少主要是由于居民消费水平的降低，而随着居民收入水平的提高，居民消费率的降低必然反映出我国居民储蓄率的不断提高。不可否认，高储蓄率为中国经济增长提供了充足的资金来源，成为支持经济快速增长的重要因素。但是，巨额的居民储蓄给我国宏观经济的正常运行带来了一定压力。高储蓄率，低消费率导致我国内需疲软，要想促进经济增长只有依靠投资和出口，而长期依赖投资和出口并不利于我国经济长期稳定发展。经济发展的最终目的是刺激消费，因此，将我国较高的居民储蓄率合理有效的转化为居民消费率对我国经济转型与可持续发展具有重要的现实意义。我国居民储蓄率过高导致的国内需求疲软是阻碍我国经济发展的重要问题之一，如何降低居民储蓄率显得十分迫切。因此，结合我国现阶段的实际情况，文章对我国居民储蓄的影响因素进行了理论和实证研究。文章第一部分为引言，介绍了文章选题背景和选题的目的意义、国内外研究现状、文章研究的内容和基本方法。通过对我国现阶段经济发展的了解，得出内需不足、消费疲软一定程度上阻碍我国经济的发展，而导致消费水平低的原因主要是由于我国居民储蓄过高，从而得出文章的研究目的和意义。第二部分为理论基础，首先对储蓄的基本概念进行了简单的介绍，然后通过对储蓄理论知识进行梳理，了解了近二百年来储蓄理论产生发展的过程，为下文的变量的选取提供了理论支持。第三部分为我国居民储蓄存在的问题，结合我国具体现状，参考实际数据，得出现阶段我国居民储蓄存在的主要问题，主要包括我国居民储蓄率过高、不同收入阶层之间分布不均、不同年龄段之间分布不均、我国居民的储蓄投资比例失调。第四部分，首先对我国居民储蓄的影响因素进行了理论分析，主要包括利率与居民储蓄理论分析、人口结构与居民储蓄关系分析、收入分配与居民储蓄关系分析，为接下来模型中变量的选取提供了支持。其次，对影响我国居民储蓄的其他变量进行了简单的分析。第五部分为实证分析部分，通过上述分析得出一套符合我国实际情况的模型框架，并对相关变量进行了选取。利用模型结合我国1983-2011年的数据对我国居民储蓄率的影响因素进行实证分析。对所有变量进行线性回归，发现变量之间存在协整关系。为避免出现伪回归，对模型进行修正，选取最优模型形式，最后得出收入分配对我国居民储蓄率具有显著影响的结论。第六部分为对策建议，针对现阶段我国居民储蓄存在的问题，依据文章研究结果得出的影响我国居民储蓄的主要因素，提出一系列合理的对策建议。
[Abstract]:Over the past 30 years of reform and opening up, with the rapid growth of China's economy, the living standard of residents has been continuously improved, the savings balance of the residents has been in high growth, and the status of residents' savings in the national economy is rising. At the same time, there are many problems, especially the structural contradiction. In recent years, domestic consumption accounts for domestic life. The proportion of gross product is less and less, the largest proportion of our country's final consumption is resident consumption, so the decrease of the final consumption is mainly due to the decrease of the consumption level of the residents. With the increase of the residents' income level, the decrease of the consumption rate of the residents inevitably reflects the increase of the saving rate of the people in our country. The rate has provided an adequate source of capital for China's economic growth, which has become an important factor in supporting the rapid growth of the economy. However, a huge amount of residents' savings have brought pressure to the normal operation of the macro-economy in China. High savings rate and low consumption rate lead to weak domestic demand. Relying on investment and export is not conducive to the long-term and stable development of China's economy. The ultimate goal of economic development is to stimulate consumption. Therefore, it is of great practical meaning to the transformation and sustainable development of our country's economic transformation and sustainable development by transforming the higher resident savings rate into a reasonable and effective consumption rate in China.
The weak domestic demand caused by the high savings rate in our country is one of the most important problems that impede the economic development of our country. It is very urgent to reduce the savings rate of the residents. Therefore, in the light of the actual situation at the present stage of our country, the article has carried out a theoretical and Empirical Study on the factors affecting the savings of the residents in our country. This paper introduces the background and purpose of the topic, the present situation at home and abroad, the contents and basic methods of the article. Through the understanding of the current economic development of our country, the shortage of domestic demand is obtained, and the weakness of consumption is hindered to the development of our economy to a certain extent, and the cause of low consumption is mainly due to the savings of our residents. The second part is the theoretical basis of the article. First, the basic concept of savings is introduced, and then the savings theory is briefly introduced. Then by combing the theory of savings, the paper understands the development process of savings theory in the last two hundred years, and provides theoretical support for the selection of the variables below. The third part is the theoretical support for the selection of the following variables. The existing problems of Chinese residents' savings, combined with the specific status of our country and reference to actual data, have the main problems of the existence of Chinese residents' savings, including the high savings rate of the residents, the uneven distribution of different income strata, the uneven distribution between different ages, and the imbalance of the savings and investment in our country. The fourth part is the disproportions of the savings and investment in our country. First of all, this paper makes a theoretical analysis of the influencing factors of Chinese residents' savings, mainly including the theoretical analysis of interest rate and resident savings, the analysis of the relationship between population structure and residents' savings, the analysis of the relationship between income distribution and resident savings, which provides support for the selection of the variables in the next model. The fifth part is an empirical analysis. Through the above analysis, we get a set of model framework which conforms to the actual situation of our country, and select the related variables. Using the model combined with the data of China for 1983-2011 years, the factors that affect the savings rate of the residents in our country are analyzed. There is a cointegration relationship between the present variables. In order to avoid the pseudo regression, the model is revised and the optimal model is selected. Finally, the conclusion is drawn that the income distribution has a significant impact on the savings rate of the residents in our country. The sixth part is the countermeasures and suggestions, in view of the problems of the savings deposit of the residents in China at the present stage, the impact of the results of the article is based on the results of the article. The main factors of household savings in China put forward a series of reasonable countermeasures and suggestions.
【学位授予单位】：东北农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.22

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