信贷配给与区域经济发展
发布时间：2018-08-05 17:36
【摘要】： 改革开放30多年来,中国银行业信贷总量和经济总量GDP都实现了快速增长,两者的变化趋势基本一致,究竟是某种巧合,还是另有其因?如果二者之间存在一定的因果关系,究竟孰是因、孰是果?需要我们做进一步的研究分析。人们对信贷配给与区域经济发展持何种关系的认识,将直接深刻影响到国家财政政策、货币政策和信贷政策的制定和执行,影响到中国区域经济和实体经济的发展,影响到中国宏观经济发展目标的实现。因此,在这样大背景下进行此课题的研究,无疑对四大区域经济协调非均衡发展和信贷配给效率的提升以及寻找缩小区域经济发展差距的金融良策具有重大的现实意义,可以说,其研究不但具有非常重要的现实理论意义和较大的深远影响,而且有较高的实用价值和较强的政策指导性,特别在宏观方面有助于理解中国区域经济发展的差异性和区域差异化的货币信贷政策制定的有效性,有助于如何在当前全球金融危机下充分发挥信贷配给作用,助推中国区域经济非均衡协调发展。 信贷配给至今没有一个统一公认的定义,信贷配给测度指标也没有,文献往往都是说比较难而一带而过。本文在总结和吸取前人研究的基础上,重新界定了信贷配给的定义和信贷配给测度指标,认为信贷配给是对信贷资金需求方的约束,是信贷市场供需的一种失衡,它既是一个绝对的概念,又是一个相对和动态的概念。它表现为供不应求(即信贷不足)和供过于求(即信贷过度)两种情况。从大量文献来看,信贷配给与区域经济发展关系问题的研究主要散落于金融(中介)发展与经济发展关系的文献之中,由于研究的目的、范围、方法等不同,得出的结论也迥然不同,一般来说,信贷配给与经济发展主要有单向因果关系、双向因果关系和没有因果关系三种。尽管有大量文献涉及到此问题的研究,但专题研究文献至今没有,仍是一项空白,因此进行该专题研究很具有一定挑战性,相信其研究成果对今后该领域的深入研究能够起到一种抛砖引玉的作用。 建国以来,中国区域经济发展战略经历了均衡发展一非均衡发展和非均衡协调发展三个阶段。改革开放后,中国经济持续高速增长被世界堪称“中国之谜”,但其背后是四大区域经济发展的结构性断裂,中国经济发展主要依靠东部拉动,但东部经济的快速增长并没有同比例地带动中西部和东北地区的经济增长。中国区域经济发展差异较大,测度区域经济发展差异的不同指标呈现出“S”型、“L”型、倒“U”型和“W”型等不同形状和特征的区域经济发展差异趋势。其形成原因,不同学者从不同角度给出了不同的答案,但本文从资本因素的角度分析,认为信贷资金、外商投资、全社会固定资产投资等资金投入在四大区域间分布的极端不平衡是形成区域经济发展差异的一些原因。 从中国信贷配给的演进与制度变迁来看,中国信贷配给始终是一种非均衡现象,整体上经历了完全计划性的信贷配给、计划性向市场化转变的信贷配给和基本市场化的信贷配给三个阶段,在前两个阶段是一种“超贷”的非均衡信贷市场,第三个阶段是以“惜贷”为特征的非均衡信贷配给,它与西方商业银行市场化为特征的信贷配给是有差异的。在四大区域经济发展差异和信贷配给体制改革的双重作用下,中国四大区域信贷配给实际上是“计划”与“市场”的“双重信贷配给”机制,即麦金农和肖式M-S模型的“政府主导型”信贷配给和斯蒂格利茨等S-W模型“市场主体型”信贷配给,这就进一步加剧了信贷配给的区域差异性,造成信贷资金高速流向低风险、高收益的经济发达的区域,延缓流向高风险、低收益的经济相对落后区域,或资金“回流”经济发达区域,使信贷配给区域差异高度非均衡,存在区域结构性的严重“超贷”与“惜贷”并存的“空间分布”不均衡怪现象。因此,正确认识来自“政府主导机制”与“市场机制”两个方面的信贷配给的“双重性”和信贷配给的“区域差异性”以及与四大区域经济发展非均衡差异性的耦合,是有效消除信贷配给区域差异性和促进区域经济非均衡协调发展的根本前提和重要保证。 通过采用固定效应模型,控制各个区域存在的固定效应,对中国省级层面和区域层面1978-2007年不同区域情况下信贷配给与经济发展之间的相互作用和因果关系进行了实证分析,结论表明,信贷配给与区域经济发展之间存在因果关系,但区域差异性较大,在东部和中部区域两者之间表现为信贷配给对经济发展有相对较小的单向促进作用的因果关系；在西部区域两者之间却存在一些内生性双向因果关系。一方面信贷配给对区域经济发展有影响,呈现由经济发达的地区向经济落后的地区梯度增强的趋势。另一方面经济发展对信贷配给的区域性差异影响较大,在经济发达的东部和经济相对发达的中部,区域经济发展对信贷配给影响较小,在经济相对落后的西部区域,区域经济发展对信贷配给的影响却较大。同时,信贷配给具有明显的区域强弱性特征,表现为在经济发达的东部区域和经济相对发达的中部区域信贷配给较弱,而在经济比较落后的西部区域信贷配给较强,支持和论证了Patrick关于信贷配给“供给引导”和“需求跟随”的理论观点。股市融资对区域经济发展起着越来越重要的作用,对银行信贷有显著的替代作用。 市场协调是基础,政府协调是补充。建议政府通过“看不见的手”的“市场协调机制”和“看得见的手”的“政府协调机制”来统筹协调信贷配给与区域经济发展,通过一定的行政干预和必要的宏观调控的双重手段弥补市场失灵,共同推动信贷配给与区域经济非均衡协调发展,实现中国经济“四轮驱动”共同快速发展的目标。
[Abstract]:After 30 years of reform and opening up, the total amount of credit and the total amount of GDP of China's banking industry have achieved rapid growth. The change trend of the two is basically the same. Is it a coincidence or another cause? If there is a certain causal relationship between the two, which is the cause, which is the result, we need to do further research and analysis. The understanding of the relationship between the regional economic development and the regional economic development will directly affect the national financial policy, the formulation and implementation of monetary policy and credit policy, the development of China's regional economy and the real economy, and the realization of the goal of China's macro economic development. Therefore, the research on this subject under such a background is doubtless. It is of great practical significance to the non balanced development of economic coordination in the four major regions and the promotion of the efficiency of credit rationing and the search for a good financial policy to narrow the gap between the regional economic development. It can be said that the study not only has very important practical theoretical significance and a greater far-reaching influence, but also has high practical value and strong policy. It is helpful to understand the difference of regional economic development in China and the effectiveness of regional differentiation of monetary and credit policy, which helps to give full play to the credit rationing role in the current global financial crisis and promote the development of regional economic disequilibrium in China.
There is not a unified and recognized definition of credit rationing, and the credit rationing measure has not been used. The documents often say that the credit rationing is difficult and through. On the basis of summarizing and absorbing the previous research, this paper redefines the definition of credit rationing and the measure index of credit rationing, and believes that credit rationing is a constraint on the demand side of credit funds. It is an unbalance between supply and demand in the credit market. It is both an absolute concept and a relative and dynamic concept. It shows two situations in which the supply of credit is insufficient (i.e., credit shortage) and oversupply (i.e., excessive credit). From a large number of literature, the research on the relationship between credit rationing and regional economic development is mainly scattered in Finance (intermediary). In the literature of the relationship between development and economic development, the conclusions are very different because of the purpose, scope and method of the study. Generally speaking, there are one way causality, two-way causality and no causality between credit rationing and economic development. Although a large number of documents are involved in the study of this problem, a special study is made. The literature is still a blank, so it is very challenging to carry out this study. It is believed that the research results can play a role in the future research in this field.
Since the founding of the people's Republic of China, China's regional economic development strategy has experienced three stages of balanced development and unbalanced development. After the reform and opening up, the sustained and rapid growth of China's economy has been called "the mystery of China" by the world, but behind it is the structural fracture of the four regional economic development, and the development of China's economy mainly depends on the eastern pull. But the rapid growth of the eastern economy does not increase the economic growth of the central and western regions in the same proportion. The regional economic development varies greatly in China. The different indicators of regional economic development differences show the difference trend of regional economic development in different shapes and characteristics, such as "S", "L", "U" and "W". Different scholars have given different answers from different angles, but from the perspective of capital factors, this paper thinks that the extreme imbalances of the distribution of funds, such as credit funds, foreign investment and all social fixed assets investment in the four major regions, are some reasons for the difference in regional economic development.
From the perspective of the evolution and institutional change of China's credit rationing, China's credit rationing has always been a non equilibrium phenomenon, and it has experienced totally planned credit rationing, planned and market-based credit rationing and basic marketization of credit rationing in three stages. In the first two stages, it is a "ultra loan" unbalanced credit market. The third stage is a disequilibrium credit rationing characterized by the "reluctance to lend". It is different from the credit rationing characterized by the marketization of western commercial banks. Under the dual role of the four regional economic development differences and the reform of the credit rationing system, the four large regional credit rationing in China is actually "plan" and "market". The dual credit rationing mechanism, namely the "government led" credit rationing of Mackinnon and the Shaw M-S model and the S-W model of "market master" credit rationing of the S-W model, further aggravates the regional difference of credit rationing, resulting in the rapid flow of credit funds to low risk, high income economically developed areas, and postponing the flow of flow. The relatively backward areas with high risk and low income, or the "return" of the developed areas, make the regional differences in credit rationing highly unbalanced, and there is an unbalanced phenomenon of "spatial distribution" of "super loan" and "loan reluctance" coexistence in regional structure. Therefore, the positive recognition comes from the "government leading mechanism" and "market machine". The "dual nature" of credit rationing in two aspects and the "regional difference" of credit rationing and the coupling of the disequilibrium differences with the four regional economic development are the fundamental prerequisite and important guarantee for effectively eliminating the regional differences in the credit rationing and promoting the unbalanced coordinated development of the regional economy.
The fixed effect model is adopted to control the fixed effect in various regions, and the interaction and causality between credit rationing and economic development in 1978-2007 years at the provincial level and regional level in China is analyzed. The conclusion shows that there is a causal relationship between the credit supply and the development of the regional economy, but the conclusion is that there is a causal relationship between the credit distribution and the regional economic development. The regional differences are large, and between the eastern and central regions, the relationship between the credit rationing and the economic development has a relatively small one-way cause and effect relationship. In the western region there are some endogenous two-way causality between the two. On the one hand, the credit rationing has an impact on the regional economic development and presents the economic developed land. On the other hand, the economic development has a great influence on the regional differences of credit rationing. In the economically developed east and the relatively developed middle part of the economy, the regional economic development has little influence on the credit rationing. In the west part of the relatively backward economy, the influence of regional economic development on the credit rationing At the same time, the credit rationing has obvious regional strong and weak characteristics, which shows that credit rationing is weak in the economically developed eastern region and the relatively developed economy in the central region, while the credit rationing is stronger in the western region with relatively backward economy. It supports and demonstrates that Patrick is closed to the "supply guidance" and "demand following" in the credit rationing. Stock market financing is playing an increasingly important role in regional economic development and has a significant substitution effect on bank credit.
The market coordination is the foundation and the government coordination is a supplement. It is suggested that the government coordinate the credit rationing and regional economic development through the "market coordination mechanism" and "the visible hand" "government coordination mechanism", and make up for the market failure through certain administrative intervention and necessary macro regulation and control. To promote the unbalanced and coordinated development of credit rationing and regional economy, and to achieve the goal of "four-wheel drive" common rapid development of China's economy.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2010
【分类号】：F832.4;F207
[Abstract]:After 30 years of reform and opening up, the total amount of credit and the total amount of GDP of China's banking industry have achieved rapid growth. The change trend of the two is basically the same. Is it a coincidence or another cause? If there is a certain causal relationship between the two, which is the cause, which is the result, we need to do further research and analysis. The understanding of the relationship between the regional economic development and the regional economic development will directly affect the national financial policy, the formulation and implementation of monetary policy and credit policy, the development of China's regional economy and the real economy, and the realization of the goal of China's macro economic development. Therefore, the research on this subject under such a background is doubtless. It is of great practical significance to the non balanced development of economic coordination in the four major regions and the promotion of the efficiency of credit rationing and the search for a good financial policy to narrow the gap between the regional economic development. It can be said that the study not only has very important practical theoretical significance and a greater far-reaching influence, but also has high practical value and strong policy. It is helpful to understand the difference of regional economic development in China and the effectiveness of regional differentiation of monetary and credit policy, which helps to give full play to the credit rationing role in the current global financial crisis and promote the development of regional economic disequilibrium in China.
There is not a unified and recognized definition of credit rationing, and the credit rationing measure has not been used. The documents often say that the credit rationing is difficult and through. On the basis of summarizing and absorbing the previous research, this paper redefines the definition of credit rationing and the measure index of credit rationing, and believes that credit rationing is a constraint on the demand side of credit funds. It is an unbalance between supply and demand in the credit market. It is both an absolute concept and a relative and dynamic concept. It shows two situations in which the supply of credit is insufficient (i.e., credit shortage) and oversupply (i.e., excessive credit). From a large number of literature, the research on the relationship between credit rationing and regional economic development is mainly scattered in Finance (intermediary). In the literature of the relationship between development and economic development, the conclusions are very different because of the purpose, scope and method of the study. Generally speaking, there are one way causality, two-way causality and no causality between credit rationing and economic development. Although a large number of documents are involved in the study of this problem, a special study is made. The literature is still a blank, so it is very challenging to carry out this study. It is believed that the research results can play a role in the future research in this field.
Since the founding of the people's Republic of China, China's regional economic development strategy has experienced three stages of balanced development and unbalanced development. After the reform and opening up, the sustained and rapid growth of China's economy has been called "the mystery of China" by the world, but behind it is the structural fracture of the four regional economic development, and the development of China's economy mainly depends on the eastern pull. But the rapid growth of the eastern economy does not increase the economic growth of the central and western regions in the same proportion. The regional economic development varies greatly in China. The different indicators of regional economic development differences show the difference trend of regional economic development in different shapes and characteristics, such as "S", "L", "U" and "W". Different scholars have given different answers from different angles, but from the perspective of capital factors, this paper thinks that the extreme imbalances of the distribution of funds, such as credit funds, foreign investment and all social fixed assets investment in the four major regions, are some reasons for the difference in regional economic development.
From the perspective of the evolution and institutional change of China's credit rationing, China's credit rationing has always been a non equilibrium phenomenon, and it has experienced totally planned credit rationing, planned and market-based credit rationing and basic marketization of credit rationing in three stages. In the first two stages, it is a "ultra loan" unbalanced credit market. The third stage is a disequilibrium credit rationing characterized by the "reluctance to lend". It is different from the credit rationing characterized by the marketization of western commercial banks. Under the dual role of the four regional economic development differences and the reform of the credit rationing system, the four large regional credit rationing in China is actually "plan" and "market". The dual credit rationing mechanism, namely the "government led" credit rationing of Mackinnon and the Shaw M-S model and the S-W model of "market master" credit rationing of the S-W model, further aggravates the regional difference of credit rationing, resulting in the rapid flow of credit funds to low risk, high income economically developed areas, and postponing the flow of flow. The relatively backward areas with high risk and low income, or the "return" of the developed areas, make the regional differences in credit rationing highly unbalanced, and there is an unbalanced phenomenon of "spatial distribution" of "super loan" and "loan reluctance" coexistence in regional structure. Therefore, the positive recognition comes from the "government leading mechanism" and "market machine". The "dual nature" of credit rationing in two aspects and the "regional difference" of credit rationing and the coupling of the disequilibrium differences with the four regional economic development are the fundamental prerequisite and important guarantee for effectively eliminating the regional differences in the credit rationing and promoting the unbalanced coordinated development of the regional economy.
The fixed effect model is adopted to control the fixed effect in various regions, and the interaction and causality between credit rationing and economic development in 1978-2007 years at the provincial level and regional level in China is analyzed. The conclusion shows that there is a causal relationship between the credit supply and the development of the regional economy, but the conclusion is that there is a causal relationship between the credit distribution and the regional economic development. The regional differences are large, and between the eastern and central regions, the relationship between the credit rationing and the economic development has a relatively small one-way cause and effect relationship. In the western region there are some endogenous two-way causality between the two. On the one hand, the credit rationing has an impact on the regional economic development and presents the economic developed land. On the other hand, the economic development has a great influence on the regional differences of credit rationing. In the economically developed east and the relatively developed middle part of the economy, the regional economic development has little influence on the credit rationing. In the west part of the relatively backward economy, the influence of regional economic development on the credit rationing At the same time, the credit rationing has obvious regional strong and weak characteristics, which shows that credit rationing is weak in the economically developed eastern region and the relatively developed economy in the central region, while the credit rationing is stronger in the western region with relatively backward economy. It supports and demonstrates that Patrick is closed to the "supply guidance" and "demand following" in the credit rationing. Stock market financing is playing an increasingly important role in regional economic development and has a significant substitution effect on bank credit.
The market coordination is the foundation and the government coordination is a supplement. It is suggested that the government coordinate the credit rationing and regional economic development through the "market coordination mechanism" and "the visible hand" "government coordination mechanism", and make up for the market failure through certain administrative intervention and necessary macro regulation and control. To promote the unbalanced and coordinated development of credit rationing and regional economy, and to achieve the goal of "four-wheel drive" common rapid development of China's economy.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2010
【分类号】：F832.4;F207
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