我国金融结构与经济增长关系实证研究

发布时间：2018-08-16 10:02

【摘要】：现代经济在一定意义上可认为是金融经济，而金融发展的实质是金融结构的优化，它反映了金融发展的层次性与深化程度。虽然我国经济获得了较快发展，金融业也有所提升，但是目前我国金融结构与经济结构并不相适应，而且我国正处于调整经济结构与进行金融体制改革的关键时期，如何调整和优化金融结构，完善其资源的配置功能，已经成为我国经济和金融发展中亟需研究的重点问题。本文主要内容如下：第1章为绪论，论述了金融结构与经济增长关系的选题背景与研究意义，概述了国内外研究现状和成果，并介绍了本文的研究思路、研究方法、论文的创新点和不足之处。第2章以综述的形式概述了金融结构相关理论及其与经济增长相关性的实证方法，为后文的分析研究奠定了理论基础。第3章从金融结构发展的实践角度出发，通过描述统计分析法，探究了我国金融结构的现状及特征。第4章从实证分析角度对我国总体金融结构与经济发展关系进行了研究。主要包含本文所用的模型特点、所用估计方法、变量选取、数据搜集、模型估计和检验、结果分析等。第5章通过面板数据分析了我国区域间金融结构与经济增长的关系。第6章对前面实证研究的结论进行了概述和总结，并根据实证分析结果提出有关金融结构优化，金融体制改革等方面的合理性建议，以求能促进金融结构优化，提升经济发展的综合实力。本文的创新之处：模型选择与建立方面：本文的重点是分析金融结构与经济增长间的关系，然而实际上，对经济增长造成影响的因素是多方面的。因此，，为了使得模型更加全面和健全，其他对经济增长影响的因素也应该考虑在内，鉴于此，本文参考了生产函数投入产出模型，将金融结构作为对经济增长影响的一种生产要素引入到模型中，建立了本文在分析时所需要的具体模型。分析方法方面：（1）本文虽然选取了部分指标来衡量金融结构，但是通过验证发现这些指标之间存在较强的相关关系，为了使得变量具有更好代表性，也希望尽量避免信息重复，所以对衡量金融结构的指标进行了因子分析，将提取的公因子作为解释变量替代原变量，衡量金融结构；（2）基于协整理论，从动态层面研究金融结构与经济增长间的长期动态均衡关系，利用可变系数面板数据模型分别测算不同省份和东中西部地区的金融结构对经济增长影响；（3）对模型回归估计后，验证发现影响经济增长的变量之间存在多重共线性，影响了回归估计的准确性，因此在估计时放弃了具有无偏性的最小二乘法，退而求其次的选取了有偏的岭回归估计，使方程回归估计更符合实际。
[Abstract]:Modern economy can be regarded as financial economy in a certain sense, and the essence of financial development is the optimization of financial structure, which reflects the level and deepening degree of financial development. Although the economy of our country has developed rapidly and the financial industry has also improved somewhat, at present, the financial structure and economic structure of our country are not suitable for each other, and our country is in the crucial period of adjusting the economic structure and carrying out the reform of the financial system. How to adjust and optimize the financial structure and improve the allocation of its resources has become an important issue in the economic and financial development of our country. The main contents of this paper are as follows: chapter 1 is the introduction, which discusses the background and significance of the research on the relationship between financial structure and economic growth, summarizes the current research situation and achievements at home and abroad, and introduces the research ideas and methods of this paper. Innovative points and shortcomings of the paper. Chapter 2 summarizes the relevant theories of financial structure and the empirical methods of its correlation with economic growth in the form of a summary, which lays a theoretical foundation for the later analysis and research. In chapter 3, from the point of view of the development of financial structure, the author explores the present situation and characteristics of China's financial structure by describing the statistical analysis method. Chapter 4 studies the relationship between China's overall financial structure and economic development from the perspective of empirical analysis. It mainly includes the characteristics of the model, the estimation method, the variable selection, the data collection, the model estimation and test, the result analysis and so on. Chapter 5 analyzes the relationship between regional financial structure and economic growth through panel data. Chapter 6 summarizes and summarizes the conclusions of the previous empirical research, and puts forward some reasonable suggestions on the optimization of financial structure and the reform of financial system according to the results of empirical analysis, in order to promote the optimization of financial structure. Enhance the comprehensive strength of economic development. The innovation of this paper: model selection and establishment: the emphasis of this paper is to analyze the relationship between financial structure and economic growth, but in fact, there are many factors that affect economic growth. Therefore, in order to make the model more comprehensive and sound, other factors affecting economic growth should also be taken into account. In view of this, this paper refers to the production function input-output model. The financial structure is introduced into the model as a factor of production to influence the economic growth, and the specific model needed in this paper is established. Analysis methods: (1) this paper selected some indicators to measure the financial structure, but through verification found that there is a strong correlation between these indicators, in order to make variables more representative, but also want to avoid duplication of information. Therefore, factor analysis is carried out to measure the financial structure. The common factors are extracted as explanatory variables instead of the original variables. (2) based on the co-integration theory, the financial structure is measured. The long-term dynamic equilibrium relationship between financial structure and economic growth is studied from the dynamic level, and the effect of financial structure on economic growth in different provinces and regions of east, west and west is measured by using variable coefficient panel data model. (3) after regression estimation of the model, It is found that there is multiple collinearity between the variables that affect economic growth, which affects the accuracy of regression estimation. Therefore, the least square method with unbiased property is abandoned in the estimation, and the biased Ridge regression estimation is chosen as the next step. The regression estimation of the equation is more practical.
【学位授予单位】：山东财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832;F124.1;F224

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