超主权信用货币发展影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-08-20 08:29

【摘要】：本论文研究的对象是影响超主权信用货币发展的因素。2008年金融危机以来，针对国际货币体系改革的呼声不断增多，，尤其是针对国际本位货币的改革，其中不少人倡议发展超主权信用货币。但也有许多反对的声音，焦点集中在超主权信用货币是否可行上。人们多从发展超主权信用货币的优势、劣势和具体可行性上进行探讨，而从影响因素角度的分析研究较少，并且缺少系统性。因此本论文尝试从影响因素的角度进行研究，为进一步研究超主权信用货币积累经验。论文共分为六部分，其中第二、三、四、五节是主体部分。第一节为引言，主要介绍四个方面的内容。第一，介绍选题的背景、目的和意义。第二，介绍论文的研究方法和基本内容框架。第三，定义本文中超主权信用货币的含义。第四，列举本文的主要观点和创新。第二节介绍超主权信用货币的相关理论。首先是凯恩斯理论。凯恩斯第一个系统地提出超主权信用货币的相关理论，并设计了一套具体的操作方案，对后期相关理论的发展影响极大。但其参照国内中央银行组织模式建立的国际清算同盟存在缺陷，需要进一步改进。特里芬根据世界经济的变化对凯恩斯的方案进行改进，并提出从IMF改革入手更具可行性的观点。不过在政治、大国博弈等方面的研究仍然存在不足。蒙代尔提出了最优货币区理论，经过后人的拓展研究形成了一套新的理论体系，影响很大，但在非经济因素方面的研究仍然不足。平行货币理论在如何推行超主权信用货币方面做出了巨大的贡献，并在欧元的创立过程中得到了有效的实践。第三节在第二节的基础上，从理论上归纳出三大类共十一个主要影响因素。即货币方面的因素，经济方面的因素，以及政治、社会文化、国际协调等方面的因素。其中货币因素包括货币的价值基础、货币的币值稳定和货币的职能健全；经济因素包括市场层面的资本、商品和劳动力的流动性以及政府层面的货币政策协调和财政风险控制。第四节利用当前存在的两种超主权信用货币，欧元和SDR，的发展来验证第三节提出的十一个影响因素，探讨它们的重要性。共分为三部分：第一部分从货币，经济，政治、社会文化、国际协调等角度对欧元成功诞生的原因进行探讨，第二部分从货币，经济，政治、社会文化、国际协调等角度对SDR发展的困境进行原因分析，第三部分从经济，政治、社会文化、国际协调等角度对欧元发展面临困境的原因进行分析。第五节对欧元、SDR以及未来“亚元”的发展进行展望。提出欧元发展对成员国利大于弊，未来必须从加强劳动力流动，增强社会文化的融合，加强政治的协商，改革国际机构以及加强财政风险控制等方面进行改革。而SDR按目前的模式难以有发展空间，必须先从货币设计方面入手。“亚元”发展遥遥无期，可以先从经济一体化入手。第六节主要对前面的内容进行总结，并对主要的观点和结论进行梳理。
[Abstract]:Since the financial crisis in 2008, there have been increasing calls for the reform of the international monetary system, especially for the reform of the international standard currency. Many of them have proposed the development of the super-sovereign credit currency. People mostly discuss the advantages, disadvantages and specific feasibility of developing super-sovereign credit currency, but the analysis from the angle of influencing factors is less and lack of systematicness. Therefore, this paper tries to study from the angle of influencing factors to accumulate experience for further research on super-sovereign credit currency. It is divided into six parts, of which second, third, four and five are the main parts.
The first section is the introduction, which mainly introduces four aspects. First, it introduces the background, purpose and significance of the topic. Second, it introduces the research methods and basic content framework of the paper. Third, it defines the meaning of super-sovereign credit currency. Fourth, it lists the main points and innovations of this paper.
The second section introduces the related theories of super-sovereign credit currency. First, Keynesian theory. Keynesian first put forward the related theories of super-sovereign credit currency systematically, and designed a set of concrete operation scheme, which has great influence on the development of the related theories in the later period. Triffin improved Keynes's plan according to the changes of the world economy, and put forward the view that it is more feasible to start with the IMF reform. However, there are still some deficiencies in the study of politics and the game between big powers. A new theoretical system has a great influence, but the research on non-economic factors is still insufficient. Parallel currency theory has made a great contribution to the implementation of super-sovereign credit currency, and has been effectively practiced in the creation of the euro.
Section 3, on the basis of Section 2, theoretically summarizes three major categories and eleven main influencing factors, namely, monetary factors, economic factors, political, social and cultural factors, international coordination and other factors. Factors include market-level capital, commodity and labor mobility, and government-level monetary policy coordination and fiscal risk control.
Section IV uses the development of two super-sovereign credit currencies, the Euro and SDR, to verify the eleven factors proposed in Section III and to explore their importance. It is divided into three parts: the first part discusses the reasons for the successful birth of the Euro from the perspectives of currency, economy, politics, social culture, international coordination, etc. The third part analyzes the reasons for the dilemma of the development of SDR from the perspectives of currency, economy, politics, social culture and international coordination.
The fifth section looks forward to the development of the euro, SDR and the future "Asian dollar". It points out that the development of the euro has more advantages than disadvantages for the member countries. In the future, reforms must be carried out in such aspects as strengthening labor mobility, enhancing social and cultural integration, strengthening political consultation, reforming international institutions and strengthening financial risk control. If there is room for development, we must start with the monetary design.
The sixth section summarizes the above contents and sorts out the main points and conclusions.
【学位授予单位】：中共中央党校
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F820.4

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