经济结构调整与人民币升值困境的出路
发布时间：2018-08-28 06:39
【摘要】：人们往往以为人民币升值能够促使我国经济结构升级。但本文认为,人民币升值更应该是经济结构调整的结果而不是原因。过去几十年的国际分工塑造出以美国为首的创新需求中心和以中国为首的制造中心,在"末端开放"的格局下,汇率变动虽然不能影响国际经济发展的模式,但却能左右制造中心之间的竞争结果。随着人民币升值的外部压力逐渐加大和我国"刘易斯转折点"的到来,要想人民币升值而不影响经济增长,我国必须实现从制造中心向创新和需求中心的转变。这就要求,一方面通过鼓励技术创新来提升经济结构,另一方面通过扩大内需来增加社会福利和诱致技术创新,进而优化经济结构。
[Abstract]:People often think that the appreciation of the RMB can promote the upgrading of China's economic structure. However, this paper argues that RMB appreciation should be the result of economic restructuring rather than the cause. The international division of labor in the past few decades has shaped the innovation demand center led by the United States and the manufacturing center led by China. Under the "open end" pattern, exchange rate movements cannot affect the pattern of international economic development. But it can control the outcome of competition between manufacturing centers. With the increasing external pressure of RMB appreciation and the arrival of "Lewis turning point" in China, in order to appreciate RMB without affecting economic growth, China must change from manufacturing center to innovation and demand center. This requires, on the one hand, to promote the economic structure by encouraging technological innovation, on the other hand, to increase social welfare and induce technological innovation by expanding domestic demand, and then to optimize the economic structure.
【作者单位】： 淮海工学院商学院;南京大学经济学院;
【分类号】：F121.3;F832.6
[Abstract]:People often think that the appreciation of the RMB can promote the upgrading of China's economic structure. However, this paper argues that RMB appreciation should be the result of economic restructuring rather than the cause. The international division of labor in the past few decades has shaped the innovation demand center led by the United States and the manufacturing center led by China. Under the "open end" pattern, exchange rate movements cannot affect the pattern of international economic development. But it can control the outcome of competition between manufacturing centers. With the increasing external pressure of RMB appreciation and the arrival of "Lewis turning point" in China, in order to appreciate RMB without affecting economic growth, China must change from manufacturing center to innovation and demand center. This requires, on the one hand, to promote the economic structure by encouraging technological innovation, on the other hand, to increase social welfare and induce technological innovation by expanding domestic demand, and then to optimize the economic structure.
【作者单位】： 淮海工学院商学院;南京大学经济学院;
【分类号】：F121.3;F832.6
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