人民币汇率制度与我国货币政策独立性研究

发布时间：2018-08-29 19:13

【摘要】：在全球化已经具有不可逆转之势的今天,我国GDP总量、进出口贸易额、外汇储备等宏观经济总量指标在全世界范围内名列前茅,这表明中国已经具备了大国的经济特征。而正是在这样的情况下,中国货币政策的独立性’却屡遭欧美发达国家的质疑。在中国经济持续发展的过程中,也出现了汇率制度变动与货币政策独立性的几次冲突。我国汇率制度的选择是否确实会影响货币政策的独立性,如果会产生影响,那么它是以怎样一种方式来影响我国货币政策的独立性的?在当今越来越开放的市场环境下,资本管制必然趋向逐步放松。在资本流动性加强的情况下,怎样协调人民币汇率制度与货币政策?中国的货币政策的独立性如何体现?相应的体制机制如何加强顶层设计?本文正是基于对上述问题的思考提出论题并展开写作的。本文首先阐述了汇率制度选择与经济发展的关系及影响汇率制度选择的因素,进而指出当前汇率制度存在的主要问题,并从汇率制度分析的角度观察其与我国货币政策独立性的联系。紧接着文章从理论和现实的角度分布论述了汇率制度与货币政策二者之间存在的冲突。文章第四部分根据上述问题进行了实证分析,分别从国内利率对国外利率敏感性、货币供应量对国外利率敏感性、外汇储备、冲销操作和货币政策独立性等方面来检验我国官方利率和市场利率对国外利率变动的敏感程度,从而检验我国货币的独立性。研究表明,在资本部分管制的情况下,我国的货币政策能够保持中等的独立性,冲销操作发挥了重要作用。汇率制度弹性的增加能够显著地提高我国货币政策的独立性,“不可能三角”理论适用于我国。论文基于理论推导和实证分析,提出了深化汇率制度改革和适时增大货币政策独立性的建议。一方面,在完善汇率形成机制,深化汇率制度形成机制方面,首先在短期内增强汇率弹性,长期内实现浮动汇率制。其次,为缓解和预防国际短期资本对我国经济带来的冲击,我国的外汇市场需要进一步发展和完善。通过增加外汇市场的交易主体,健全外汇交易方式,建立外汇储备基金,变“藏汇于国”为“藏汇于民”等方式来提高我国外汇市场的风险管理和价格发现功能。最后,我国加快我国利率市场化进程,实现汇率与利率之间灵活的传导机制。实施利率市场化,以市场供求为基础来调节利率此外,由于我国庞大的外汇储备量直接影响了我国货币政策和汇率政策的配合,必须完善我国的外汇储备体系。另一方面,要通过以下几个方面增强我国货币政策的独立性。第一,在央行信誉加强的前提下,适当调整货币政策的中间目标,可以考虑通货膨胀作为货币政策的中间目标。第二,短期内在货币市场实施对冲操作,以暂时缓解维持稳定汇率对我国货币独立性造成的负面影响。第三,坚持在条件允许的情况下,坚持资本账户渐进式开放。
[Abstract]:Nowadays, with the irreversible trend of globalization, China's total GDP, import and export trade, foreign exchange reserves and other macroeconomic aggregate indicators rank first in the world, which shows that China has the economic characteristics of a large country. In the course of China's sustained economic development, there have also been several conflicts between the change of exchange rate system and the independence of monetary policy. In today's increasingly open market environment, capital control is bound to gradually relax. How to coordinate the RMB exchange rate regime and monetary policy with the strengthening of capital liquidity? How can the independence of China's monetary policy be reflected? How can the corresponding institutional mechanisms strengthen the top-level design? This paper is based on the above considerations. Put forward the topic and start writing.
This paper first expounds the relationship between the choice of exchange rate regime and economic development and the factors influencing the choice of exchange rate regime, then points out the main problems existing in the current exchange rate regime, and observes the relationship between the choice of exchange rate regime and the independence of China's monetary policy from the perspective of exchange rate analysis. Then the paper discusses the distribution of exchange rate from the theoretical and practical point of view. The fourth part of this paper makes an empirical analysis of the conflicts between the two. It examines China's official interest rates and market interest rates from the perspectives of sensitivity of domestic interest rates to foreign interest rates, sensitivity of money supply to foreign interest rates, foreign exchange reserves, sterilization and independence of monetary policy. The study shows that under the condition of partial capital control, China's monetary policy can maintain a moderate degree of independence, and sterilization plays an important role. The theory is applicable to China.
Based on theoretical deduction and empirical analysis, this paper puts forward some suggestions on deepening the reform of exchange rate regime and increasing the independence of monetary policy in time. China's foreign exchange market needs further development and improvement because of the impact of capital on China's economy. After that, China speeds up the process of interest rate marketization and realizes the flexible transmission mechanism between exchange rate and interest rate, implements interest rate marketization and adjusts interest rate on the basis of market supply and demand. On the one hand, the independence of China's monetary policy should be strengthened through the following aspects. First, inflation can be considered as the intermediate target of monetary policy if the central bank's credibility is strengthened and the intermediate target of monetary policy is properly adjusted. Second, the short-term hedging operation of the monetary market can temporarily ease the maintenance of stable exchange rate. Third, we should adhere to the gradual opening of capital account when conditions permit.
【学位授予单位】：广西师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.6;F822.0

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