货币增速剪刀差与CPI相关性的实证研究

发布时间：2018-10-12 14:14

【摘要】：货币供应量作为我国的货币政策中介目标存在很多争议,但是现阶段依然具有不可替代的作用,在重视货币总量的同时,应分析货币结构的变化,实现对货币供应量中介目标的改良是一个现实选择。本文通过对2001年1月—2010年12月的宏观月度数据的研究,发现货币增速剪刀差与CPI之间存在着显著的正相关关系。在样本期内,货币增速剪刀差与通货膨胀之间互为格兰杰因果关系,货币增速剪刀差的变化体现为4期之后的CPI变化,当期货币增速剪刀差每增加一个单位则4个月之后的CPI上升0.049个单位。央行应将货币结构尤其是货币增速剪刀差作为货币供应量数量指标的补充,同时考虑对货币结构进行调控,以增强货币政策效用。
[Abstract]:There are many controversies about money supply as the intermediate target of monetary policy in our country, but it still plays an irreplaceable role at the present stage. At the same time, we should analyze the change of monetary structure while attaching importance to the total amount of money. It is a realistic choice to improve the intermediary target of money supply. Based on the study of monthly data from January 2001 to December 2010, this paper finds that there is a significant positive correlation between the scissors difference of currency growth rate and CPI. In the sample period, there is a Granger causality relationship between the currency growth rate scissors difference and inflation. The change of the currency growth rate scissors difference is the CPI change after 4 periods. For each additional unit of currency growth, the CPI rose 0.049 units after four months. The central bank should consider the monetary structure, especially the scissors difference of money growth rate, as a supplement to the quantitative index of money supply, and consider adjusting and controlling the monetary structure in order to enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy.
【作者单位】：东北财经大学科研处;东北财经大学应用金融研究中心;东北财经大学金融学院;东北财经大学研究生院;
【基金】：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“中国货币政策的不确定性:基于带通胀惯性的LRE模型的分析与检验”(09YJC790028) 辽宁省教育厅创新团队项目“我国金融业综合经营问题研究——花旗经验模式演进案例的反思”(2007T028)
【分类号】：F224;F822.0;F726

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