人民币汇率制度改革对我国贸易收支的影响研究

发布时间：2018-10-15 09:27

【摘要】：汇率作为一国货币相对于另一国货币的价格,是一种重要的资产价格。它的变化对于国际贸易往来、资本流动以及宏观经济都有着重要的影响。对我国而言,由于我国经济对出口贸易的依存度较高,汇率的作用显得尤为重要。改革开放以来,人民币汇率制度大致经历了几次较大规模的改革,相应引起我国汇率形成机制及汇率水平发生较大变化,较好地调节了我国对外贸易状况,促进了我国经济增长。但目前,由于人民币汇率过分关注美元,在对美元出现较小波动的同时,对其他货币却大幅波动,其直接结果是导致了人民币实际有效汇率大幅波动,这在2008年下半年金融危机及2011年下半年欧洲债务危机时期显得尤为显著——人民币有效汇率随着美元升值而大幅上涨,使得我国出口贸易受到严重影响,人民币汇率制度仍需进一步完善。针对我国汇率制度进一步改革的方向,国内外诸多学者针对做出了许多有益的研究,以汇率形成机制的选择方面争论尤为激烈,其中当前的“参考一篮子货币,实际主要参考美元”及“盯住一篮子货币”两种汇率形成机制也成为争论的焦点。本文拟通过定性与定量分析结合的形式,首先回顾了国内外专家学者针对汇率变动对对外贸易影响及汇率制度选择方面的研究成果。其次,对我国汇率制度改革历程进行了梳理,并针对历次汇率制度改革后汇率变动对贸易收支的影响进行了深度分析,在此基础上对我国汇率制度改革作出了客观的评价,并指出当前人民币汇率制度应当继续加以完善。在定量研究部分,本文运用了OLS回归方法,对我国1994年以来的进出口需求方程进行了分析,并基于回归方程及复旦人民币盯住一篮子货币的模拟汇率指数,对我国进出口贸易进行盯住一篮子货币汇率形成机制下的模拟分析,定量地探讨两种不同汇率形成机制对进出口贸易的影响,为人们客观评价汇率制度改革对我国贸易收支的影响以及探寻未来改革方向提供有益的借鉴。
[Abstract]:Exchange rate, as the price of one country's currency relative to another, is an important asset price. Its changes have an important impact on international trade, capital flows and macroeconomics. For our country, the role of exchange rate is particularly important because of the high degree of dependence of our economy on export trade. Since the reform and opening up, the RMB exchange rate system has undergone several large-scale reforms, which has caused great changes in China's exchange rate formation mechanism and exchange rate level, and has better regulated China's foreign trade situation. Has promoted our country's economic growth. At present, however, because the RMB exchange rate is excessively concerned with the US dollar, while it fluctuates slightly against the US dollar, it fluctuates substantially against other currencies. The direct result is that the real effective exchange rate of the RMB fluctuates substantially. This was particularly evident during the financial crisis in the second half of 2008 and the debt crisis in Europe in the second half of 2011, when the effective exchange rate of the RMB rose sharply with the appreciation of the US dollar, which seriously affected China's export trade. The RMB exchange rate system still needs to be further improved. In view of the direction of further reform of China's exchange rate regime, many scholars at home and abroad have made a lot of useful research, especially in the choice of exchange rate formation mechanism, in which the current "reference basket of currencies", The actual reference to the dollar and the "peg to a basket of currencies" exchange rate formation mechanism has also become the focus of debate. Through the combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis, this paper first reviews the research achievements of experts and scholars at home and abroad on the impact of exchange rate changes on foreign trade and the choice of exchange rate regime. Secondly, the course of China's exchange rate system reform is combed, and the influence of exchange rate changes on trade income and expenditure after previous exchange rate system reform is analyzed in depth. On this basis, the objective evaluation of China's exchange rate system reform is made. And points out that the current RMB exchange rate system should continue to be improved. In the part of quantitative research, this paper uses OLS regression method to analyze the import and export demand equation of our country since 1994, and based on the regression equation and the simulated exchange rate index of Fudan RMB pegging to a basket of currencies, In this paper, the influence of two different exchange rate formation mechanisms on import and export trade is discussed quantitatively by simulating and analyzing the exchange rate formation mechanism of China's import and export trade, which is pegged to a basket of currencies. It provides a useful reference for people to evaluate objectively the influence of exchange rate system reform on China's trade income and expenditure and to explore the direction of future reform.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.6;F752

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