最优货币政策规则、通货膨胀与经济增长

发布时间：2018-10-24 07:54

【摘要】：运用DSGE-VAR模型对我国经济系统受到的总需求冲击、总供给冲击及货币政策冲击的影响进行分析,重点关注货币政策冲击的表现。研究表明:1)货币政策冲击对产出增长率缺口和通货膨胀缺口的影响长期趋于0;2)紧缩的货币政策引致经济衰退,扩张的货币政策导致经济过热;3)货币政策冲击效应持续时间约为5个季度,货币政策施行8个季度后作用基本消失;4)货币政策冲击对产出增长率缺口波动的贡献率为47.6%,对物价波动的贡献率为9.62%。调控经济增长可以从总需求和货币政策两方面入手,调控物价主要靠调控总供给。在此基础上,对我国最优简单货币政策规则的研究结果表明:1)在我国的货币政策反应函数中给予产出增长率缺口更大的权重能减少福利损失,产出缺口系数的最优值为0.34,通货膨胀缺口系数的最优值为1.58;2)利率平滑对福利损失的影响不大。
[Abstract]:DSGE-VAR model is used to analyze the impact of total demand, supply and monetary policy shocks on China's economic system, focusing on the performance of monetary policy shocks. The results show that: 1) the impact of monetary policy shocks on output growth gap and inflation gap tends to be zero for a long time. The expansion of monetary policy causes the economy to overheat; 3) the monetary policy shock effect lasts about five quarters. 4) the contribution rate of monetary policy shock to the gap fluctuation of output growth rate is 47.60.The contribution rate to price fluctuation is 9.62%. Economic growth can be regulated from two aspects: aggregate demand and monetary policy. On this basis, the results of the study on the optimal simple monetary policy rules in China show that: 1) giving more weight to the gap of output growth rate in the monetary policy response function of our country can reduce welfare losses; The optimal value of the output gap coefficient is 0.34, and the optimal value of the inflation gap coefficient is 1.58 ~ 2) the interest rate smoothing has little effect on the welfare loss.
【作者单位】：吉林大学数量经济研究中心暨商学院;吉林大学商学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重大项目(10ZD&006)
【分类号】：F224;F822.0;F822.5;F124

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