我国货币流通速度变化的实证研究

发布时间：2018-10-30 07:30

【摘要】：货币政策制定者在通过改变货币供给量对我国宏观经济进行调控时,应当充分考虑我国货币流通速度的情况,货币供给量和货币流通速度共同起作用才能确保货币政策的操作达到理想的效果。一方面货币流通速度由众多的社会经济因素决定,它会受到宏观环境和宏观政策变化的影响而发生变化；另一方面,货币流通速度的变动也会影响到货币政策调控经济的效果。然而长期以来很多学者却对我国货币流通速度的变化存在着一定的误读：有的研究者把国内生产总值除以货币供给量的值作为货币流通速度,得出了我国货币流通速度在不断下降的结论；也有不少研究者虽然认为把国内生产总值除以货币供给量的值作为货币流通速度的方法不妥,但也只是考虑了虚拟经济、金融交易等因素,并没有提出更好的解决方法。由于社会分工和国际分工的深化,我国的国内生产总值事实上远远小于我国的商品和劳务交易总量,因此把国内生产总值除以货币供给量的值作为货币流通速度的方法是错误的；货币流通速度是关于实体经济的,虽然虚拟经济的发展和金融交易规模在不断扩大,但对货币流通速度的影响有限。本文摒弃了把国内生产总值除以货币供给量的值作为货币流通速度的错误做法,同时也借鉴了国内外学者的研究成果,使用一种全新的方法来计算我国的货币流通速度。本文用1990—2012年期间我国的年度税收数据来估计我国的年度商品和劳务交易总量,然后再除以货币供给量,最终得出了比较真实的货币流通速度。研究结果发现,我国的货币流通速度并没有像多数研究者认为的那样是不断下降的,相反还保持着一种比较平稳并且稳中有升的走势。本文通过建立回归模型和VAR模型来对货币流通速度和几个主要经济变量的关系进行实证研究,研究结果表明经济理论并不能完全解释我国货币流通速度的变化,货币流通速度还会受到产出水平和货币供给量的冲击。研究结果发现货币流通速度随着货币供给量的增加而上升,最终会推高物价；它也会随着货币供给量的减少而下降,起到加速物价下跌的作用。货币政策制定者在制定货币政策时应当充分考虑货币供给量对货币流通速度的冲击,使货币供给量在满足经济增长需要和保持物价基本稳定之间选取一个合适的度。本文认为货币政策制定者如果能够及时发布货币政策信息,使社会公众及时了解政策动向,就能够使政策目标的偏离程度降至最低。在结构安排上,本文的正文部分共分为五章。第一章为绪论部分,介绍本文的研究背景和研究意义以及对有关国内外研究成果的文献进行整理,根据研究内容对文章结构做出合理安排。第二章为理论阐述部分,介绍所选择的货币数量理论和货币流通速度理论,并对影响货币流通速度的各种因素进行分析。第三章为我国货币流通速度的测度研究部分。该章介绍了对我国货币流通速度度量的传统方法,指出传统方法的不足,并按照本文的思路和研究方法对我国货币流通速度进行测度。第四章为实证部分。该章使用回归模型和VAR模型对影响我国货币流通速度变化的因素进行实证分析。第五章为结论和政策建议。该章为全文的总结,根据本文的研究结果对货币政策决定者提出合理的建议,并指出创新点和不足。
[Abstract]:Monetary policy makers should take full account of our country's currency circulation rate, money supply amount and currency circulation speed to ensure the operation of monetary policy to achieve the ideal effect when the monetary policy makers regulate our macro-economy by changing the supply amount of money. On the one hand, the rate of currency circulation is determined by many social and economic factors, which will be influenced by macro-environment and macro-policy changes; on the other hand, the change of currency circulation rate will also affect the effect of monetary policy regulating economy. However, many scholars have had some misreading about the change of the speed of money circulation in our country: some researchers divided the gross domestic product by the value of money supply as the speed of currency circulation, and concluded that the speed of money circulation in China is decreasing continuously; Although there are many researchers who believe that the value of GDP divided by the amount of money can be used as the speed of currency circulation, it is only taking into account the factors such as virtual economy, financial transaction and so on, and has not put forward a better solution. Due to the deepening of social division of labor and international division of labor, China's gross domestic product is in fact much smaller than the total amount of goods and labor transactions in China. Therefore, the method of dividing GDP by the value of money supply as the speed of currency circulation is wrong The speed of currency circulation is about the real economy. Although the development of virtual economy and the scale of financial transaction are expanding continuously, the influence on the speed of money circulation In this paper, we use a brand-new method to calculate the currency circulation of our country using a brand-new method. Speed. This paper estimates our country's annual commodity and labor trade volume by the annual tax data of our country during the period from 1990 to 2012, then divides by the supply of money, and finally obtains the real currency circulation. The results of the study show that the rate of currency circulation in China is not decreasing as much as the majority of researchers think, but rather a relatively stable and steady state This paper studies the relationship between currency circulation speed and several major economic variables by establishing regression model and VAR model. The research results show that the economic theory cannot fully explain the currency circulation in China The rate of currency circulation will also be subject to output level and currency for changes in speed The result of the study found that the rate of currency circulation increased with the increase in the supply of money, which eventually pushed high prices; it would also decline as the supply of money decreased to speed up prices In formulating monetary policy, monetary policy makers should take fully into account the impact of the supply of money on the speed of currency circulation, so that the supply of money should be selected as a result of meeting the needs of economic growth and maintaining the basic stability of prices. The paper thinks that if monetary policy maker can issue monetary policy information in time, make the public know the trend of policy in time, it can make the deviation of policy objective Degree drops to the lowest level. In structural arrangements, this article is The first chapter is the introduction part, the research background and the research significance of this paper, and the literature on the research results at home and abroad, according to the research content to the article. The second chapter is the theoretical elaboration, the choice of monetary quantity theory and the currency circulation velocity theory, and the influence on the speed of currency circulation. The third chapter is the currency circulation rate of our country. This chapter introduces the traditional method of measuring the speed of currency circulation in our country, points out the shortage of traditional methods, and puts forward our country's currency in accordance with the thought and research methods in this paper. the flow velocity is measured. The fourth chapter is an empirical part. This chapter uses regression model and VAR model to influence the speed change of currency circulation in China An empirical analysis of the factors. For the conclusion and policy recommendations, this chapter is a summary of the full text. Based on the results of this paper, the author puts forward reasonable suggestions to the monetary policy determinator, and
【学位授予单位】：东北财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F224;F822.2

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