FDI与国际贸易的关系：一个统一模型的实证检验

发布时间：2018-10-30 15:44

【摘要】：外国直接投资和国际贸易是要素和产品在国际间流动的结果，二者之间具有十分密切的关系。赫克歇尔-俄林模型表明通过产品贸易可以间接实现要素的流动，从而使要素价格均等化。蒙代尔在此模型基础上，，提出了FDI与国际贸易替代模型，即产品贸易可以代替直接投资的流动，反之直接投资活动会减少产品贸易。随着研究者对外国直接投资和国际贸易研究的深入，他们发现FDI与国际贸易的关系并不简单。Helpman和Markusen于1984年分别提出了垂直跨国企业和水平跨国企业的概念，并由此衍生出对FDI类型如何影响FDI与国际贸易关系的探讨。Helpman认为，跨国企业在全球实行垂直分工，由此产生了大量的中间品贸易，造成FDI与国际贸易形成互补关系。Markusen认为，跨国企业在全球实行水平分工，当地生产产品用于满足当地市场，造成产品贸易的减少，FDI与国际贸易是替代关系。垂直型FDI与水平型FDI的划分使我们对FDI与国际贸易的关系认识得更为全面，不过，这一方法的缺点是我们无法在一个统一的理论框架中讨论FDI，统计数据上也无法区分这两种不同类型的FDI，给实证检验带来了困难。Markusen，Venables和Zhang在总结过去对不同类型FDI研究的基础上，提出一个同时包含垂直型FDI和水平型FDI的模型。本文将以此模型为基础构造实证检验方程，用以检验我国FDI和国际贸易的关系。利用我国与其33个贸易伙伴1997年至2011年双边投资与贸易面板数据，本文首先利用分组数据对要素禀赋差异决定FDI与国际贸易关系的理论作了验证。实证发现要素禀赋差异较小时FDI对贸易的影响系数为负，实证模型系数在统计上显著；要素禀赋差异较大时FDI对贸易的影响在统计上虽然不显著，但符号为正，与理论预测相符。本文还研究了我国FDI流入与进口、出口的替代或互补关系，实证结果表明我国FDI流入与进口是替代关系，与出口是互补关系。
[Abstract]:Foreign direct investment (FDI) and international trade are the result of the flow of factors and products. The Hecchel-Olin model shows that factor flows can be indirectly realized through product trade, thus equalizing factor prices. On the basis of this model, Mondale put forward a substitute model between FDI and international trade, that is, product trade can replace the flow of direct investment, whereas direct investment activities can reduce product trade. As researchers study FDI and international trade, they find that the relationship between FDI and international trade is not simple. Helpman and Markusen put forward the concepts of vertical multinational enterprise and horizontal multinational enterprise in 1984, respectively. Helpman believes that multinational enterprises implement vertical division of labor in the world, resulting in a large number of intermediate trade, resulting in a complementary relationship between FDI and international trade. Multinational enterprises implement a horizontal division of labor in the world, and local products are used to satisfy the local market, which results in the reduction of product trade. FDI and international trade are the substitute relations. The division between vertical FDI and horizontal FDI makes us understand more fully the relationship between FDI and international trade. However, the disadvantage of this approach is that we cannot discuss FDI, in a unified theoretical framework. On the basis of summarizing the previous studies on different types of FDI, Markusen,Venables and Zhang put forward a model that includes both vertical FDI and horizontal FDI. Based on this model, the empirical test equation is constructed to test the relationship between China's FDI and international trade. Using bilateral investment and trade panel data of China and 33 of its trading partners from 1997 to 2011, this paper first uses grouping data to verify the theory that factor endowment differences determine the relationship between FDI and international trade. The empirical results show that the influence coefficient of FDI on trade is negative when the difference of factor endowment is small, and the coefficient of empirical model is statistically significant. Although the influence of FDI on trade is not significant statistically, the symbol is positive, which is consistent with the theoretical prediction. This paper also studies the substitution or complementation relationship between FDI inflow and import and export. The empirical results show that China's FDI inflow and import are substitution and export are complementary.
【学位授予单位】：北京大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.6;F752

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