开放经济下中国货币政策目标制选择的实证研究

发布时间：2018-11-02 12:12

【摘要】：全球经济与金融一体化加速了各国资本的国际流动、市场的开放,进一步从微观上改进了全球范围内的资源优化配置。但是货币政策实施所依赖的整个金融运行环境的变化,因此从宏观角度上为政府制定整体经济政策带来了一定的难度。在制定货币政策的过程中,各国政府不仅要考虑到本国国内宏观经济运行状况,还要关注国际资本流动、世界经济波动等外部环境因素。于此同时,国际资本流动和世界经济形式也会对本国货币政策的改变做出反应,进而改变货币政策在国内的作用效果。在当前开放经济条件下,传统的货币政策工具已不能适应新的金融环境,货币政策目标制的选择需要适应新的变化。进入新世纪以来,我国经济发展一直面临十分复杂的内外部环境,具体表现为人民币升值压力、对外贸易摩擦加剧、资产价格膨胀等多种矛盾汇聚。尽管,我国央行出台一系列货币政策,但是效果却并不明显。因而,我国货币政策的有效性、货币政策目标框架选择等问题值得深入研究。概括地说,本文是在经济学研究的基本框架下,在广泛收集数据的基础上,特别注重方法的运用与问题的研究相结合,从中国经济增长的基本问题出发,对我国货币政策目标制的选择问题进行研究。全文共分为七章,具体内容如下：第一章：绪论。在此部分,将对全文做出概括性介绍,并分别就三个方面的内容进行了阐述。包括研究意义和研究背景,研究方法和技术路线,创新点和研究内容。第二章：货币政策的相关理论概述。本章首先对货币政策的相关概念进行了界定和辨析,重点介绍了与本文研究密切相关的货币政策、中介目标、最终目标、最终目标规则与名义锚等概念；其次,介绍了货币政策中介目标选择的相关理论,主要包括货币主义学派、凯恩斯主义学派、后凯恩斯主义学派等理论；再次,介绍了货币政策最终目标的相关理论,包括货币政策的时间不一致理论、理性预期理论等,并分析规则与相机抉择的货币政策选择原则；最后,回顾了我国货币政策的演变历程。第三章：开放经济下我国货币政策有效性分析。在对货币政策有效性进行理论分析的基础上,从宏观经济目标实现和货币政策工具选择两个角度出发,基于我国货币政策的历史演变,采用方差分解和基于VAR模型的脉冲响应函数等计量方法,利用实证模型评价和分析我国货币政策自亚洲金融危机依赖的有效性问题。在这一章,本文通过对金融危机以来,我国货币政策调控经历的“防通缩”、“控温降速防通胀”和“保增长、防通缩与通胀”三个阶段分别建立实证模型以及对整体样本期建立实证模型,实证比较了不同经济阶段下我国货币政策的有效性问题, 第四章：开放经济下我国货币供应量中介目标的选择。本章基于货币政策中介目标选择的三个标准,并结合我国目前的经济形势,分别从相关性、可测性、可控性和传导机制效果四个方面对我国货币供应量作为货币政策中介指标的可行性进行了理论与实证分析,得出相应的研究结论。第五章：开放经济下我国利率中介目标的选择。本章从理论与实证两个方面论证了Taylor规则及其扩展形式是否能够很好地模拟我国的货币政策变化趋势,进一步具体分析了利率能否作为评价货币政策有效性的中介目标,并在实证结论的基础上分析了Taylor规则在中国具体实施过程中所面临的一些问题。本章的研究结论为利率规则是货币当局对利率政策进行调控时所依据的政策规则；原始的Taylor规则并不适用于我国,扩展的Taylor规则对我国更加适用。第六章：开放经济下我国货币政策目标制的选择。本章首先通过对我国现行的汇率目标制、货币目标制与通货膨胀目标制的比较分析,发现通货膨胀目标制能很好的弥补我国现行目标制中存在的缺点。然后,从制度、经济、技术、市场四个角度分析了通货膨胀目标制在我国实行所需满足的条件。最后,从央行货币政策损失函数最小化的角度出发建立理论模型并进行了实证研究,研究表明,“通货膨胀目标制”下的通胀偏差要相对小于“相机抉择机制”情况下的通胀偏差,因而,我国可以把通货膨胀目标制作为未来的货币政策取向。第七章：汇总了本文的总体研究结论,给出了相应的政策建议,并提出未来研究展望。本文在以下几个方面做出创新性的研究：第一,不仅评价了传统研究下货币政策制定实施的目标有效性,而且还分析了到货币政策在调控工具选择方面的有效性。将整个样本期划分为不同的阶段进行研究,考察不同时期下货币政策的有效性。第二,国内很多学者在研究中并没有清晰区分货币政策中介目标与最终目标之间的关系,本文在研究过程中明确对二者加以区分。第三,在我国货币供应量中介目标可行性、影响因素及适用条件进行实证检验的基础上,对利率中介目标进行了深入研究。通过构建一个包含主要资产和金融信息的金融状况指数纳入Taylor规则中进行研究,同时也对其他所有可能的Taylor规则进行对比分析,证明了本文的研究模型是适用和可靠的。第四,通过对我国现行目标制与灵活的通货膨胀目标制的对比分析,发现灵活的通货膨胀目标制是我国货币政策目标制的一个可行选择。通过数理推导得出灵活通货膨胀目标制下的最优货币规则,并应用中国的实际数据进行实证检验。但绝大多数的研究中仅仅从实证的角度加以说明,没有明确的理论基础。
[Abstract]:The global economic and financial integration has accelerated the international flow of national capital, the opening of the market, and further improved the allocation of resources in the global scope. But the whole financial operation environment depends on the monetary policy implementation, so it brings some difficulty to the government's overall economic policy from a macro perspective. In the process of formulating monetary policy, governments should not only take into account the domestic macro-economic health situation, but also pay attention to external factors such as international capital flow and world economic fluctuation. At the same time, the international capital flow and the world economic form will respond to the change of national currency policy and change the effect of monetary policy in China. Under the current open economy condition, the traditional monetary policy tool cannot adapt to the new financial environment, and the choice of the monetary policy target system needs to adapt to the new change. Since entering the new century, our country's economic development has been confronted with a very complicated internal and external environment, which is embodied in many contradictions, such as RMB appreciation pressure, aggravated foreign trade friction, asset price expansion and so on. Although the central bank of china has introduced a series of monetary policies, the effect is not obvious. Therefore, the effectiveness of monetary policy in our country, the choice of goal frame of monetary policy and so on deserve further study. In summary, under the basic framework of economic research, this paper, on the basis of extensive data collection, pays special attention to the combination of the application of the method and the research of the problem, and starts with the basic problem of China's economic growth, and carries out the choice of the target system of monetary policy in China. The full text is divided into seven chapters and specific contents. The following are the following: Chapter: Introduction. In this section, a general introduction of the whole text will be made, and the contents of three aspects are discussed separately. It is set forth, including research significance and research background, research methods and technical route, innovation point. Chapter II: Monetary Policy This chapter defines and analyzes the relevant concepts of monetary policy, and focuses on the concepts of monetary policy, intermediary target, ultimate goal, final objective rule and nominal anchor, which are closely related to the research of this paper. Secondly, the paper introduces the intermediary of monetary policy. The relevant theories of the selection of monetary policy mainly include the theory of monetary policy, Keynesian school and post-Keynesian school; once again, the relevant theories of the ultimate goal of monetary policy, including the time inconsistency theory of monetary policy, are introduced. The principle of monetary policy choice between the rules and the camera choice is analyzed and the Chinese goods are reviewed in the end. The evolution of currency policy. Chapter 3: Open Economy On the basis of theoretical analysis of the validity of monetary policy, based on the theoretical analysis of the validity of monetary policy, based on the historical evolution of monetary policy in China, variance decomposition and VAR model are adopted based on the historical evolution of monetary policy in China. An Empirical Model for the Evaluation and Analysis of China's Monetary Policy from Asian Gold Using Empirical Model The issue of the effectiveness of the crisis dependency. In this chapter, this article has passed since the financial crisis China's currency governance On the "Anti-Communication" of the Experience of Policy and Control contraction "Temperature-controlled spin-down anti-inflation" and The three stages of "insurance growth, deflation and inflation" establish an empirical model and establish an empirical model for the whole sample period. On the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in China, Chapter Four: Open Economy The choice of medium target of money supply in China is based on the three standards selected by the medium target of monetary policy, and combined with the current situation in our country. The feasibility of monetary supply in China as an intermediary index of monetary policy is theoretically analyzed from four aspects: correlation, separability, controllability and conduction mechanism. Based on the empirical analysis, we draw the conclusion of the study. This chapter demonstrates whether the Taylor rule and its expanded form can well simulate the changing trend of monetary policy in our country from both theoretical and empirical aspects, and further analyzes the interest rate. No, as an intermediary target to evaluate the effectiveness of monetary policy, and on the basis of empirical conclusions, the Taylor rules are analyzed. The research conclusion of this chapter is that the interest rate rule is the policy rule based on the monetary authority's regulation of interest rate policy; the original Taylor rule does not apply to our country. The Taylor rules of the exhibition are more suitable for our country. Chapter 6: The choice of China's monetary policy target system under the open economy. This chapter first analyzes the current exchange rate target system, the currency target system and the inflation target system, and finds the inflation target. System, economy, technology and market are analyzed from four aspects: system, economy, technology and market. The condition that the inflation target system needs to meet is introduced in our country. Finally, the angle of minimizing the loss function of the central bank's monetary policy Development of theoretical model in hand An empirical study was carried out, and the results showed that Inflation Targeting The inflation deviation under the system is relatively smaller than that in the case of "camera choice mechanism". Therefore, our country can To make the inflation target into the future monetary policy orientation. Chapter 7: summarizes the overall research of this paper Conclusion: The paper gives the corresponding policy suggestions and puts forward the future research prospect. The paper makes an innovative research on the following aspects: Firstly, it not only evaluates the effective target of monetary policy formulation under the traditional research. Sex, and also analyzes the effectiveness of monetary policy in the selection of regulatory tools. The whole sample period is divided Secondly, many scholars in China do not have a clear distinction between the target of monetary policy and the most In the course of the study, the relationship between the target and the end target is clearly distinguished. The third, the feasibility, the influencing factor and the applicable strip of the medium target of the money supply in our country. On the basis of empirical test, the target of interest rate intermediary is deeply studied. By constructing a financial condition index, which contains the main asset and financial information, it is included in the Taylor rule, and all the other possible Taylor series are also studied. Through the comparative analysis of the rules, it is proved that the research model of this paper is applicable and reliable. Fourth, through the comparative analysis of the existing target system and flexible inflation target system in our country, the spirit is found. Living inflation target system is a viable option in China's monetary policy goal system. The flexible inflation target is derived through mathematical deduction. The optimal monetary rules under the system, and the application of China's actual data to carry out the empirical test. However, most
【学位授予单位】：南开大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F822.0

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