全球流动性过剩与中国输入型通胀研究

发布时间：2018-11-17 13:24

【摘要】：本世纪初,互联网泡沫的破灭给美国和世界经济都造成了很大的冲击。为了刺激经济,美国等发达国家几乎普遍采取了宽松的货币政策,包括增加货币供给和降低利率。这些宽松的货币政策带来的流动性的增强对于刺激全球经济起到了明显作用,不过也逐渐造成了全球范围的流动性过剩问题,中国也不例外。在全球流动性过剩的背景下,尽管中国总体通货膨胀率较为温和,但中国能源和农产品价格上涨迅速,中国通货膨胀呈现明显的结构性特征。本文试图在全球发展不平衡的背景下探讨全球流动性过剩发生的根源。此外,本文也试图解释在全球流动性过剩的背景下,中国出现结构性通货膨胀的原因。本文回顾了全球流动性过剩发生的过程,认为全球流动性过剩的直接原因是欧美发达国家的货币超发,特别是美国。全球流动性过剩的根本原因在于全球发展不平衡,包括货币体系不平衡、经济发展水平和经济结构不平衡。全球实体经济的不平衡与货币体系的不平衡会形成一个恶性循环,任何一个发展中国家都很难打破这个循环。因此,世界亟需构建新的货币体系。这启示我们,全球有必要建立一种新的国际货币体系,打破美元的垄断地位,如完善特别提款权机制。以VAR模型为基础的脉冲响应分析、方差分解和格兰杰因果关系检验等方法分析表明,国际能源和农产品价格上涨的主要原因是全球美元过剩导致的美元贬值和全球经济扩张,国际农产品价格上涨的主要原因还包括能源价格上涨。本文还发现,国际能源和农产品价格对基本的供求关系并不敏感,这启示我们,能源和农产品价格的波动受投机因素的影响较大,各国应该建立充分的能源和粮食储备,对冲投机对价格的影响。本文发现,中国的通货膨胀在很大程度上是输入型的。国际能源和农产品价格上涨正是国内能源和农产品价格上涨的主要原因。此外,中国国内农产品价格还受能源价格的影响。结果还表明,国内经济形势也会影响中国国内能源和农产品价格,而国内货币政策对能源和农产品价格的影响程度微乎其微。这启示我们,使用货币政策调控通货膨胀时,必须区分不同类型的通货膨胀,货币政策采取盯住核心通货膨胀的方式比盯住标题通货膨胀更为合理。
[Abstract]:At the beginning of this century, the bursting of the dotcom bubble had a great impact on both the United States and the world economy. To stimulate the economy, developed countries such as the United States have adopted almost universal loose monetary policies, including increasing the money supply and lowering interest rates. The increased liquidity from these loose monetary policies has played a significant role in stimulating the global economy, but it has gradually created a global liquidity glut, and China is no exception. Against the background of excess global liquidity, China's energy and agricultural prices are rising rapidly, and China's inflation is clearly structural in spite of the moderate overall inflation rate in China. This paper attempts to explore the causes of global excess liquidity in the context of global imbalances. In addition, this paper also tries to explain the reasons of structural inflation in China against the background of global excess liquidity. This paper reviews the process of global excess liquidity, and points out that the direct cause of global excess liquidity is the currency overshoot of developed countries in Europe and the United States, especially the United States. The fundamental cause of global excess liquidity lies in the imbalance of global development, including the imbalance of the monetary system, the level of economic development and the economic structure. Imbalances in the global real economy and in the monetary system form a vicious circle that any developing country can hardly break. As a result, the world urgently needs to build a new monetary system. This suggests that there is a need for a new international monetary system to break the dollar's monopoly, such as improving the SDR mechanism. The impulse response analysis based on VAR model, variance decomposition and Granger causality test show that the main reasons for the price increase of international energy and agricultural products are the depreciation of the global dollar and the expansion of the global economy. The main reason that international agricultural product price rises also includes energy price rises. The paper also finds that international energy and agricultural prices are not sensitive to the basic supply and demand relationship. This indicates that the fluctuation of energy and agricultural prices is greatly affected by speculative factors, and that countries should establish adequate energy and food reserves. Hedge the effect of speculation on prices. This paper finds that China's inflation to a large extent is imported. International energy and agricultural price rise is the main reason for domestic energy and agricultural price increases. In addition, China's domestic agricultural prices are also affected by energy prices. The results also show that the domestic economic situation will also affect China's domestic energy and agricultural prices, while domestic monetary policy has little impact on energy and agricultural prices. This suggests that when we use monetary policy to control inflation, we must distinguish between different types of inflation, and monetary policy is more reasonable to peg core inflation than headline inflation.
【学位授予单位】：华中科技大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F822.5;F831.7;F714.1

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