两岸四地货币一体化可行性的经济基础研究
发布时间：2018-11-20 05:40
【摘要】：由于历史原因,中国主权范围内的两岸四地是四个独立的货币区。但是伴着四个经济体的迅速发展,特别是大陆经济的崛起,实体经济的一体化进程加速使得货币一体化的收益越来越高。同时,人民币区域化也是人民币国际化的必经之路,而两岸四地是人民币区域化最具坚实经济基础的地区。这就有必要对其可行性进行研究。 本文首先回顾了最优货币区理论的发展,综述了针对两岸四地货币一体化研究的文献,确定了本文的研究思路。本文对照最优货币区理论的各个单项和综合标准,用统计资料逐一分析了两岸四地货币一体化的经济一体化基础。再使用OCA指数方法,建立各个衡量标准的量化指标,构建并修正了两岸四地的OCA模型。计算得到了两岸四地的双边OCA指数。 本文认为两岸四地之间具有进行货币一体化的经济基础,并且统一货币的成本在不断下降。双边的合作成本因贸易联系和制度变量,各不相同。大陆和港澳台的合作成本相对较低。因此,从战略上要积极推进两岸四地的经济一体化,从而使得货币一体化的可能性更加坚实。同时,要注意实现这一目标的步骤性。
[Abstract]:For historical reasons, the two sides of the Taiwan Strait within the scope of China's sovereignty are four independent currency areas. However, with the rapid development of the four economies, especially the rise of the continental economy, the acceleration of the integration process of the real economy makes the return of monetary integration higher and higher. At the same time, RMB regionalization is also the only way for RMB internationalization. It is necessary to study its feasibility. This paper first reviews the development of the theory of optimal currency area, summarizes the literature on the monetary integration of the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, and determines the research ideas of this paper. In this paper, the economic integration foundation of the four regions is analyzed with statistical data in comparison with the single item and comprehensive criteria of the optimal currency area theory. Then using the OCA index method, the quantitative index of each standard is established, and the OCA model of the two sides of the Taiwan Strait is constructed and revised. The bilateral OCA index of the two sides is calculated. This paper holds that there is an economic basis for monetary integration between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait and that the cost of the unified currency is decreasing. The cost of bilateral cooperation varies according to trade links and institutional variables. The cost of cooperation between the mainland and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan is relatively low. Therefore, we should actively promote the economic integration of the two sides of the Taiwan Strait and the four places strategically, so as to make the possibility of monetary integration more solid. At the same time, we should pay attention to the steps to achieve this goal.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F822.1
本文编号：2343936
[Abstract]:For historical reasons, the two sides of the Taiwan Strait within the scope of China's sovereignty are four independent currency areas. However, with the rapid development of the four economies, especially the rise of the continental economy, the acceleration of the integration process of the real economy makes the return of monetary integration higher and higher. At the same time, RMB regionalization is also the only way for RMB internationalization. It is necessary to study its feasibility. This paper first reviews the development of the theory of optimal currency area, summarizes the literature on the monetary integration of the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, and determines the research ideas of this paper. In this paper, the economic integration foundation of the four regions is analyzed with statistical data in comparison with the single item and comprehensive criteria of the optimal currency area theory. Then using the OCA index method, the quantitative index of each standard is established, and the OCA model of the two sides of the Taiwan Strait is constructed and revised. The bilateral OCA index of the two sides is calculated. This paper holds that there is an economic basis for monetary integration between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait and that the cost of the unified currency is decreasing. The cost of bilateral cooperation varies according to trade links and institutional variables. The cost of cooperation between the mainland and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan is relatively low. Therefore, we should actively promote the economic integration of the two sides of the Taiwan Strait and the four places strategically, so as to make the possibility of monetary integration more solid. At the same time, we should pay attention to the steps to achieve this goal.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F822.1
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