我国货币政策效果区域差异研究
发布时间：2018-11-26 12:02
【摘要】：作为一个处于经济转轨时期的发展中大国，我国现阶段经济和金融发展中，普遍存在地区经济金融发展水平参差不齐的特征。我国目前实行的统一的货币政策经由各区域金融机构和金融市场，传导到企业和居民等微观主体，再由企业和居民做出反馈后共同作用于经济体系。高度统一的货币政策或许并不能产生令人满意的政策效果，甚至引发区域发展不平衡的负面效应，，造成经济的结构性问题。 在上述背景下，本文将全国省级行政单位按国家统计局的划分标准分成三个区域，利用2005年一季度到2012年一季度的季度数据，建立向量自回归模型（VAR）和动态面板模型，利用脉冲响应、SYS-GMM矩估计等方法研究我国货币政策区域效应的现状及原因。 本文首先验证货币政策效果区域差异在我国的存在性，发现我国货币政策对经济总量的效果各区域大致相同，而对人均消费、固定资产投资、物价水平的影响却呈现显著的区域效应，这种区域效应通过敏感性、反应程度、时滞等形式表现出来。然后依据货币政策传导机制理论，用比较分析的方法阐述引起这种区域差异的原因，并做横截面数据回归再次验证比较分析的结论，本文认为，导致我国货币政策区域效应的原因主要是区域居民消费倾向不同、地区间金融发展程度不同、企业规模和性质不同、产业结构不同和通货膨胀预期不同等。最后根据实证结果和分析结论提出相应的政策建议。
[Abstract]:As a large developing country in the period of economic transition, the regional economic and financial development level varies widely in our country at the present stage of economic and financial development. At present, the unified monetary policy in China is transmitted to the micro subjects such as enterprises and residents through regional financial institutions and financial markets, and then acted on the economic system by feedback from enterprises and residents. A highly unified monetary policy may not produce satisfactory policy effects, or even lead to negative effects of regional development imbalances, resulting in structural problems of the economy. Under the above background, this paper divides the national provincial administrative units into three regions according to the criteria of the National Bureau of Statistics. Using the quarterly data from the first quarter of 2005 to the first quarter of 2012, the paper establishes the vector autoregressive model (VAR) and the dynamic panel model. The present situation and causes of regional effects of monetary policy in China are studied by means of impulse response and SYS-GMM moment estimation. This paper first verifies the existence of regional differences in the effect of monetary policy in China, and finds that the effect of monetary policy on economic aggregate is roughly the same in all regions, while on per capita consumption, fixed assets investment. However, the influence of price level shows a significant regional effect, which can be expressed in the form of sensitivity, degree of reaction and time delay. Then, according to the theory of monetary policy transmission mechanism, using comparative analysis method to explain the causes of this regional difference, and do cross-section data regression to verify the conclusion of comparative analysis. The regional effect of monetary policy in China is mainly due to the different consumption tendency of regional residents, the different degree of financial development among regions, the different size and nature of enterprises, the different industrial structure and the different expectations of inflation. Finally, according to the empirical results and analysis of the conclusions of the corresponding policy recommendations.
【学位授予单位】：南京财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F822.0
本文编号：2358505
[Abstract]:As a large developing country in the period of economic transition, the regional economic and financial development level varies widely in our country at the present stage of economic and financial development. At present, the unified monetary policy in China is transmitted to the micro subjects such as enterprises and residents through regional financial institutions and financial markets, and then acted on the economic system by feedback from enterprises and residents. A highly unified monetary policy may not produce satisfactory policy effects, or even lead to negative effects of regional development imbalances, resulting in structural problems of the economy. Under the above background, this paper divides the national provincial administrative units into three regions according to the criteria of the National Bureau of Statistics. Using the quarterly data from the first quarter of 2005 to the first quarter of 2012, the paper establishes the vector autoregressive model (VAR) and the dynamic panel model. The present situation and causes of regional effects of monetary policy in China are studied by means of impulse response and SYS-GMM moment estimation. This paper first verifies the existence of regional differences in the effect of monetary policy in China, and finds that the effect of monetary policy on economic aggregate is roughly the same in all regions, while on per capita consumption, fixed assets investment. However, the influence of price level shows a significant regional effect, which can be expressed in the form of sensitivity, degree of reaction and time delay. Then, according to the theory of monetary policy transmission mechanism, using comparative analysis method to explain the causes of this regional difference, and do cross-section data regression to verify the conclusion of comparative analysis. The regional effect of monetary policy in China is mainly due to the different consumption tendency of regional residents, the different degree of financial development among regions, the different size and nature of enterprises, the different industrial structure and the different expectations of inflation. Finally, according to the empirical results and analysis of the conclusions of the corresponding policy recommendations.
【学位授予单位】：南京财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F822.0
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