低效性实践:汇率控制与失业挽救

发布时间：2018-12-09 18:26

【摘要】：本文利用VECM模型比较分析了中美、美欧的汇率与美国失业率的相互动态影响关系。两个市场汇率同美国失业率长期负向相关确与传统宏观理论契合,然而中美汇率的变化对美国失业率的影响并不显著,而美欧汇率的变化具有显著的作用。其次,脉冲响应分析发现,美国增加对中国的进口能促进美国的就业,而美国提升对欧元区国家的进口则会加剧美国的失业,这种传导机制的差异可以归因于中美双边贸易的互补结构以及美欧之间贸易的竞争结构。此外,相比人民币升值对美国失业率的影响,美国国内经济变量对失业率具有更加显著的作用。这些结果说明美国通过对人民币升值施压试图改善自身失业状况,甚而诉诸政治手段的做法存在根源性的低效率。
[Abstract]:In this paper, VECM model is used to compare and analyze the dynamic relationship between the exchange rate and the unemployment rate in China, the United States and Europe. The long-term negative correlation between the two market exchange rates and the unemployment rate of the United States is consistent with the traditional macro theory. However, the change of the exchange rate between China and the United States has no significant effect on the unemployment rate of the United States, but the change of the exchange rate between the United States and Europe has a significant effect. Secondly, the impulse response analysis shows that the increase in US imports to China will promote US employment, while the US will increase its imports of euro-zone countries to aggravate US unemployment. The differences in transmission mechanism can be attributed to the complementary structure of bilateral trade between China and the United States and the competitive structure of trade between the United States and Europe. In addition, compared with the impact of RMB appreciation on the U.S. unemployment rate, American domestic economic variables play a more significant role in the unemployment rate. The results suggest that the United States is trying to improve its own unemployment by putting pressure on the yuan to appreciate, and that even resorting to political means has a root cause of inefficiency.
【作者单位】：西南财经大学经济与管理研究院;
【分类号】：F837.12;F832.6;F249.712

【共引文献】