货币供给量、利率及其产出效应分析

发布时间：2018-12-11 05:25

【摘要】：货币供给量和利率是货币政策实施化过程中非常重要的中介目标。货币政策的中介目标作为货币政策操作机制的重要环节，发挥着两层的作用。一是由于货币政策实施过程的动态性和滞后性，货币政策当局需要有可以迅速准确反映经济运行状况的经济指标来作为观察和判断政策实施效果的信号；二是为了避免货币当局的机会主义行为，需要为其设置一个名义锚，以便于民众可以观察和判断货币政策制定者是否言行一致。货币政策中介目标选择的适当与否直接关系到货币政策的实施效果，中介目标选择适当可以帮助政策制定者有效地调控经济，中介目标选择不当有可能使得货币政策的调控失效甚至出现对经济的不利影响。当前我国面临着来自金融危机的巨大困难，，因此研究货币供给量、利率及其产出效应对我国货币政策实践具有重大的现实指导意义。本文全面地介绍了货币政策相关的理论及其传导机制，回顾了我国近二十年的货币政策实践，并在此基础上对我国货币政策的实践展开了实证分析。在实证环节，从货币供给量和利率两个方面来考察我国货币政策实施的效果。在货币供给量方面，首先，描述性分析了我国近些年来货币供给量的变化、货币流动性的变化以及我国的货币化程度的变化。其次，采用VAR模型实证分析了货币供给对实际产出的直接影响关系，以及货币供给量通过物价间接地对实际产出的影响。在利率方面，首先介绍了我国现行的利率体制，指出了我国利率管制的局限性；其次，采用VAR模型实证分析了利率与实际产出之间的联动关系，以及我国管制利率对产出调控的效率。实证结果发现，虽然近年来我国货币供给量的结构和流动性都发生了很大变化，我国经济的货币化和金融化程度都在不断加深，但货币供给量对我国实际经济变量的影响仍然是显著的，它仍然可以继续作为我国实施货币政策的中介目标。通过对利率的分析发现，虽然利率对实际产出构成影响，但影响比较弱且存在很强的滞后性，利率传导效率不高，我国的利率需要进一步的市场化。本文的研究为我国采用以货币供给量为中介目标的积极货币政策来应对金融危机提供了实证方面的依据，同时也为我国货币政策中介目标体系的丰富和完善提供参考。
[Abstract]:Money supply and interest rate are very important intermediate targets in the process of monetary policy implementation. As an important link of monetary policy operation mechanism, the intermediate target of monetary policy plays a two-tier role. First, due to the dynamic and lag of the monetary policy implementation process, the monetary policy authorities need to have economic indicators that can quickly and accurately reflect the economic operation status to be used as a signal to observe and judge the effect of the policy implementation; In order to avoid the opportunistic behavior of monetary authorities, a nominal anchor should be set so that people can observe and judge whether monetary policy makers are consistent with their words and deeds. The appropriate choice of intermediate target of monetary policy is directly related to the implementation effect of monetary policy. The appropriate choice of intermediate target can help the policy makers to adjust and control the economy effectively. The improper choice of intermediate target may make the adjustment and control of monetary policy ineffective or even have adverse effects on the economy. At present, China is facing great difficulties from the financial crisis. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to study the monetary supply, interest rate and its output effect for the practice of monetary policy in China. This paper comprehensively introduces the theory and transmission mechanism of monetary policy, reviews the practice of monetary policy in China in the past two decades, and makes an empirical analysis on the practice of monetary policy in China. In the empirical link, the effect of monetary policy implementation in China is investigated from the aspects of money supply and interest rate. In the aspect of money supply, firstly, the paper analyzes the change of money supply, the change of money liquidity and the change of monetization degree of our country in recent years. Secondly, VAR model is used to analyze the direct influence of money supply on actual output, and the influence of money supply on actual output indirectly through price. In the aspect of interest rate, firstly, it introduces the current interest rate system of our country, and points out the limitation of interest rate control in our country. Secondly, VAR model is used to analyze the relationship between interest rate and real output, and the efficiency of regulating interest rate on output in China. The empirical results show that although the structure and liquidity of China's money supply have changed greatly in recent years, the degree of monetization and financialization of our economy is deepening. However, the effect of money supply on China's actual economic variables is still significant, and it can still be regarded as the intermediate target of monetary policy in China. Through the analysis of the interest rate, it is found that although the interest rate has an impact on the actual output, the influence is weak and there is a strong lag, the efficiency of interest rate conduction is not high, and the interest rate in our country needs further marketization. The research in this paper provides an empirical basis for China to adopt the active monetary policy with monetary supply as the intermediate target to deal with the financial crisis, and also provides a reference for the enrichment and improvement of the intermediary target system of monetary policy in China.
【学位授予单位】：杭州电子科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F224;F822;F124

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